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ARMENIA-EU: SEEKING WAYS OF CONTINUED PARTNERSHIP AMID PRO-RUSSIAN SLANT
http://www.armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/48479/armenia_eu_customs_union_russia_dcfta
ANALYSIS | 13.09.13 | 10:04
Photolure
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The first EU backlash over Armenia's policy U-turn and move towards
Russian integration appears to have been left behind as the sides
have embarked on the way of seeking acceptable forms of cooperation.
After nearly four years of negotiations with the EU regarding the
signing of an Association Agreement with the possibility of creating
a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the 28-nation
bloc, President Serzh Sargsyan declared on September 3 that Armenia
has decided to join the Russia-led Customs Union and later participate
in the formation of a Eurasian economic union.
Officials in Brussels immediately warned that such integration with
Russia is incompatible with DCFTA and also criticized Moscow for
putting pressure on its former Soviet allies, among which are also
Ukraine and Moldova.
Yerevan has been hosting an informal meeting of foreign ministers of
EU Eastern Partnership member states and EU Commission for Enlargement
and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule was scheduled to meet
with President Sargsyan in Yerevan. As Armenian Parliament Speaker
Hovik Abrahamyan said, the meeting would determine the format of
future cooperation between Yerevan and Brussels.
Two days before that, the European Parliament passed a special
resolution condemning Moscow's pressure on the members of Eastern
Partnership. Ukraine and Moldova, in fact, acknowledge this pressure,
but the Armenian government insists that it is joining the Customs
Union "out of national interests". Armenia may as well be reserving
the possibility of making a statement about being pressurized and
giving up its plans to enter the Customs Union in future.
European officials have said bluntly that if Armenia joins the Customs
Union, the signing of DCFTA with the EU will become impossible,
since the matter concerns completely different customs systems. This
agreement is a key document in the Association package that Yerevan
and Brussels planned to initial in November.
Now Armenia suggests that it can still initial the Association
Agreement without its economic component, and, apparently, Europe
may agree to such a watered-down version of cooperation not to lose
its ties with Armenia.
It is remarkable that Belarus Foreign Minister Vladimir Makey has
also arrived in Yerevan. Belarus for a long time was de facto out of
the Eastern Partnership process, but after the latest round of trade
war with Russia Minsk began to show a special interest in Europe. And
despite the 'victories' of Vladimir Putin in the Syrian issue, there
is more talk in the world about the failure of Russian foreign policy,
including in the former Soviet space.
Armenia in this regard is likely to play for time. Armenian Parliament
Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan yesterday announced the possible dates of
the signing of the Treaty of Accession to the Customs Union - he said
that it could be done in 2014. Abrahamyan also acknowledged that there
is still no final text of the treaty, and it is likely that Armenia
will not accept the text and the parliament will vote against it.
Thus, the Armenian government reserves some room for maneuver for
itself, and Europe may well accept these rules of the game, by
initialing an agreement on political association, using sanctions
against Moscow because of its pressure, forging ahead with the
signing of Association Agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
and focusing additional efforts on Armenia.
It is obvious that it won't work without money here. In case
of Armenia's signing a Customs Union agreement Moscow promised
investment, which many experts consider amorphous. Moreover, it was
clearly stated that Russia is not going to reduce the price of natural
gas for Armenia. Money is now extremely important for Armenia, which
customarily appears in the 'social pit' at the end of every year.
Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan traveled to China for investments
earlier this week, but China promised only a $16-million grant to
support joint reforms.
Against the backdrop of this situation, the appointment of the date
for a European donors conference for Armenia can play an important
role in terms of Armenia's decision.
http://www.armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/48479/armenia_eu_customs_union_russia_dcfta
ANALYSIS | 13.09.13 | 10:04
Photolure
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The first EU backlash over Armenia's policy U-turn and move towards
Russian integration appears to have been left behind as the sides
have embarked on the way of seeking acceptable forms of cooperation.
After nearly four years of negotiations with the EU regarding the
signing of an Association Agreement with the possibility of creating
a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the 28-nation
bloc, President Serzh Sargsyan declared on September 3 that Armenia
has decided to join the Russia-led Customs Union and later participate
in the formation of a Eurasian economic union.
Officials in Brussels immediately warned that such integration with
Russia is incompatible with DCFTA and also criticized Moscow for
putting pressure on its former Soviet allies, among which are also
Ukraine and Moldova.
Yerevan has been hosting an informal meeting of foreign ministers of
EU Eastern Partnership member states and EU Commission for Enlargement
and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule was scheduled to meet
with President Sargsyan in Yerevan. As Armenian Parliament Speaker
Hovik Abrahamyan said, the meeting would determine the format of
future cooperation between Yerevan and Brussels.
Two days before that, the European Parliament passed a special
resolution condemning Moscow's pressure on the members of Eastern
Partnership. Ukraine and Moldova, in fact, acknowledge this pressure,
but the Armenian government insists that it is joining the Customs
Union "out of national interests". Armenia may as well be reserving
the possibility of making a statement about being pressurized and
giving up its plans to enter the Customs Union in future.
European officials have said bluntly that if Armenia joins the Customs
Union, the signing of DCFTA with the EU will become impossible,
since the matter concerns completely different customs systems. This
agreement is a key document in the Association package that Yerevan
and Brussels planned to initial in November.
Now Armenia suggests that it can still initial the Association
Agreement without its economic component, and, apparently, Europe
may agree to such a watered-down version of cooperation not to lose
its ties with Armenia.
It is remarkable that Belarus Foreign Minister Vladimir Makey has
also arrived in Yerevan. Belarus for a long time was de facto out of
the Eastern Partnership process, but after the latest round of trade
war with Russia Minsk began to show a special interest in Europe. And
despite the 'victories' of Vladimir Putin in the Syrian issue, there
is more talk in the world about the failure of Russian foreign policy,
including in the former Soviet space.
Armenia in this regard is likely to play for time. Armenian Parliament
Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan yesterday announced the possible dates of
the signing of the Treaty of Accession to the Customs Union - he said
that it could be done in 2014. Abrahamyan also acknowledged that there
is still no final text of the treaty, and it is likely that Armenia
will not accept the text and the parliament will vote against it.
Thus, the Armenian government reserves some room for maneuver for
itself, and Europe may well accept these rules of the game, by
initialing an agreement on political association, using sanctions
against Moscow because of its pressure, forging ahead with the
signing of Association Agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
and focusing additional efforts on Armenia.
It is obvious that it won't work without money here. In case
of Armenia's signing a Customs Union agreement Moscow promised
investment, which many experts consider amorphous. Moreover, it was
clearly stated that Russia is not going to reduce the price of natural
gas for Armenia. Money is now extremely important for Armenia, which
customarily appears in the 'social pit' at the end of every year.
Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan traveled to China for investments
earlier this week, but China promised only a $16-million grant to
support joint reforms.
Against the backdrop of this situation, the appointment of the date
for a European donors conference for Armenia can play an important
role in terms of Armenia's decision.