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ISTANBUL; Turkey should mind the gap

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  • ISTANBUL; Turkey should mind the gap

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Sept 15 2013


    Turkey should mind the gap


    YAVUZ BAYDAR

    The changes in major world politics are dizzying these days. Libya and
    Egypt caused that with their own dynamics, but it is certainly Syria,
    with its nightmare and intense symbolique, which succeeded in bringing
    two vexed rivals, the US and Russia, together.

    The deal in Geneva on listing, securing and destroying the chemical
    weapons stockpile of Syria is historic on two levels: On a micro
    level, it ends the Russian spitefulness, whose origins lie in the
    Western powers' perceived `hijacking of Libyan process,' which ended
    in the bombing of the country.

    Moscow had only one way of interpreting this: The Cold War was not
    over; it had only changed disguise. Thus, by entering the global stage
    via Geneva, as the chef to prepare the meal, Russian leader Putin
    signals, as it were, what began with Libya may very well end with
    Syria; a new era can begin only with two to tango.

    Indeed. If Syria had not existed on the world map, we would analyze it
    differently. With its hugely complex domestic social fabric, its
    regime's reputation as the world's most cunning one, its modern
    history filled with episodes on aiding and abetting terrorism, and its
    discreet and powerful global intelligence network, Syria has remained
    a very tough nut to crack.

    But most of us watching the spreading nightmare of butchery in Syria
    have forgotten -- or neglected -- something we can only compare with
    North Korea. It is one of the very few, dangerous remnants of the Cold
    War. What distinguishes Syria even more is its location at the heart
    of the cauldron in the Middle East. No wonder how little the Arab
    Awakening meant for such a regime.

    To deal with its utter inhumanity, you have to go the architects of
    the very era that created it. Those who make it can break it, and vice
    versa. Months ago, during a meeting with the media, the US ambassador
    in Turkey asked for our analysis on a `way out of this devilish
    problem.'

    My response was, talk to the Russians and persuade them. They are the
    masters of that house. Without them, there is no way out. Undesired as
    it may be, it is thus. Those of us who oppose war, calling for utter
    caution on regime change (particularly for Ankara), may at the end of
    the day be proven right. However, that remains to be seen.

    Thus, Turkey's swift, cautious yet positive reaction to the Geneva
    deal should be welcome. Surely everybody knows that the Bashar
    al-Assad regime, shrewder than ever, can follow Saddam's pattern and
    play the `delay and let it rot' game, and go on with other weapons of
    mass destruction; as Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu says that Turkey
    does not want war but peace, this deal ought to be taken by Ankara as
    a great opportunity to nuance, reframe and redefine Turkey's
    zero-problems-with-neighbors policy.

    It has been tested, ever since the protocol fiasco with Armenia,
    beyond its limits, showing many more failures than successes. Reality
    is to blame, certainly; the deal has been far too wide in spectrum,
    complex in dynamics and forces Turkey's `soft power' agenda out of
    orbit.

    A revision is timely because it gives Turkey an opportunity to
    (re)synchronize its foreign policy with the West. Because, if Rami
    Khouri from The Daily Star in Lebanon is right in his observation --
    and I agree with him ` the Geneva deal is already signaling a `new
    world order' in the making. Noting that Obama also exchanged letters
    with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Khouri calls for a more
    inclusive, new regional architecture.

    `This is a welcome development that should be expanded to include
    other key actors engaged in Syria, such as Turkey, France, China and
    Saudi Arabia, so that new regional orders and security architectures
    can be established to replace the chaos of recent years in the Middle
    East,' he writes. `Rarely do we get to witness such historic
    developments as they occur before us in real time. We might look back
    on this week one day as the start of a new post-Cold War global
    order.'

    It is too early to say, surely. But, clearly, a new era of old
    balancing acts between realism and idealism is under way. Mind the
    gap.

    http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=326473

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