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  • ISTANBUL: Former FM Türkmen: Ankara has not calculated well regardi

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Sept 15 2013



    Former FM Türkmen: Ankara has not calculated well regarding Syria


    Former Turkish Foreign Minister İlterk Türkmen speaks to Today's Zaman
    in an exlusive interview. (Photo: Today's Zaman, İsa Şimşek)
    15 September 2013 /YONCA POYRAZ DOĞAN, İSTANBUL
    This week's guest for Monday Talk has said that Ankara has not made
    its calculations well in regards to Syria, although the government's
    standing has been righteous, and it was a mistake that Ankara has
    built all of its policies on the assumption that Syrian President
    Bashar al-Assad will fall.

    “But there is also the need to take into consideration the national
    interests; that's how politics work. Talking about democratic
    governance in Syria is quite righteous, but how this democracy is
    going to be put into practice is another question,” said Ambassador
    İlter Türkmen, former foreign minister of Turkey.

    After days of intense negotiations, the United States and Russia
    reached agreement on Saturday in Geneva on a framework to secure and
    destroy Syria's chemical weapons and impose UN penalties if the Assad
    government fails to comply.

    “If Syria really cedes control of its chemical weapons to the
    international community, Assad will gain certain legitimacy. There
    will be less willingness to use force against Assad. In reality, the
    Russian initiative, in one way or another, will create a larger field
    of maneuver for Syria and to a certain extent demoralize the
    opposition,” he also said.

    Reports of a chemical attack in a Damascus suburb on Aug. 21 marked a
    turning point in the attitude of the United States and its allies
    toward the Syrian government. According to US-based Human Rights
    Watch, evidence strongly suggests that Syrian government forces were
    responsible for a poison gas attack that killed more than 1,400
    people, contradicting repeated denials by Syrian President Assad.

    Meanwhile, Turkey deployed tanks and anti-aircraft guns to reinforce
    its military units on the Syrian border. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
    Erdoğan vowed to respond to any attack from its southern neighbor.
    Turkey, which has sided with the opposition to oust Assad, has a
    border with Syria that stretches for more than 900 kilometers (559
    miles). More than 100,000 people have died in the conflict and
    millions have fled their homes for Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq
    since March 2011.

    Answering most of our questions before Moscow and Washington reached
    agreement on Syrian chemical weapons arsenal, Türkmen elaborated on
    the issue.

    As people all over the world have been holding their breath for an
    expected US air strike against the Syrian regime, diplomatic efforts
    have intensified towards placing Syria's chemical weapons under
    international control. How have we come to this point?

    The United States administration has not been willing to interfere in
    Syria from the beginning, but because of the use of the chemical
    weapons by the Syrian regime, the Obama administration felt like it
    had to respond to the Assad regime. President Barack Obama first gave
    the impression that the US will interfere in the situation, and then
    he referred the issue to the US Congress. And recently a diplomatic
    initiative emerged. It is not clear if it was Moscow or Washington
    that created this opportunity. [US Secretary of State John] Kerry made
    a statement about the planned attack on Syria responding to a question
    from the press, and he said that if the chemical weapons can be put
    under international observation, there may be no need to do that.
    Russia jumped on this idea immediately -- a very successful initiative
    for the Russian diplomacy as Moscow has been supporting the Assad
    regime, which has already killed 100,000 of its citizens. We will see
    how this initiative will develop, whether or not Assad will surrender
    its chemical weapons. Meanwhile, Obama said important things.

    You refer to his speech to the nation in Washington on Syria.

    Yes, he said the United States cannot be the world's policeman. This is true.

    He also said that the US can save Syrian children from being gassed to death.

    Yes, he is trying to do something, trying not to use force, and the
    Russian initiative gave Obama this chance. We have to remember what
    Obama's position was in regards to the war in Iraq. When he was a
    senator, he was among few politicians in the US who opposed the war in
    Iraq. His stance proved to be right. The war in Afghanistan seemed
    more legitimate because of 9/11. The United States has understood now
    that it cannot pull its forces easily from a country once it sends its
    troops there. The US should have understood this after the Vietnam
    War, but there have been more lessons after that.

    ‘Elections do not necessarily bring democratic rulers'

    Prime Minister Erdoğan has said the Russian initiative has given Assad
    the opportunity he was seeking. Do you think that's what's happened?

    Of course, the Turkish government wanted Assad to take a hit. Ankara
    has built all of its policies on the assumption that Assad will fall.

    Was this the right approach?

    This was not the right approach. Assad has blood in his hands, it
    could have been better if he fell, but we should have seen that he
    would not fall easily. Turkey's assumption was that Assad would fall
    and be replaced with the Muslim Brotherhood of Syria.

    There are a lot of countries fearing the rule of radical Islamists in
    the Middle East. How has Ankara been so sure that a new government in
    Syria will not be malignant?

    I don't think Ankara has made its calculations well. The Turkish
    government's standing has been righteous. But there is also the need
    to take into consideration the national interests; that's how politics
    work. Talking about democratic governance in Syria is quite righteous,
    but how this democracy is going to be put into practice is another
    question.

    If Assad falls, shall we expect a democratic government in Syria?

    Some kind of democratic process will probably be applied, but we can
    expect an autocratic rule. Elections do not necessarily bring
    democratic rulers. Politicians who can garner more than 50 percent of
    the votes come to power and tend to rule autocratically pressuring the
    rest of the population. Some democracies are not truly democratic.
    After the Arab Spring, we have seen parties with strong religious
    affiliation taking prominent roles in governments. This was the case
    in Egypt. Egypt is a homogenous society, but Syria is different; there
    is a possibility that the Syrian society could disintegrate. In Syria,
    there are Kurds, Alevis and Sunnis. When we look at the Middle East,
    we should also take into account the considerations of the countries
    of the Middle East. For most of the Arab countries, Iran is the most
    important threat. Even the Palestinian issue does not seem to take
    priority. However, for Turkey, the Palestinians are important. No
    country in the Middle East places this much importance on the
    Palestinians. When it comes to Syria, its regime is considered a
    threat to other Arab countries because it is allied with Tehran.

    If the US chooses to strike Syria at the end, do you think this will
    force Assad to leave?

    The US plans to strike Syria seemed to be limited in time and scope
    aiming at punishing Assad for the use of chemical weapons. Even if the
    US hits some military targets of the Assad regime, these are not
    likely to force Assad to leave. Assad has had military gains; he has a
    regular army, weapons and fighter planes. On the other hand, the
    opposition is divided. If Syria really cedes control of its chemical
    weapons to the international community, Assad will gain certain
    legitimacy. There will be less willingness to use force against Assad.
    In reality, the Russian initiative, in one way or another, will create
    a larger field of maneuver for Syria and to a certain extent
    demoralize the opposition.

    ‘Turkey has long been ignoring its relations with EU'

    How would you evaluate Turkish foreign policy of recent years?

    There have been areas in which Turkey has followed the right policies
    and there have been some areas in which the policies have not been
    successful. Until very recently, Turkish foreign policy decisions have
    been good in many areas -- until the Arab Spring -- except the
    European Union. Turkey has long been ignoring its relations with the
    European Union – in particular, Turkish EU Affairs Minister [Egemen
    Bağış] obviously does not have much sympathy for the EU. Turkey's
    Middle East and Africa policies have been good and led to economic
    presence in those countries. After the Arab Spring started, Turkey has
    not been able to evaluate the developments rationally. In regards to
    Egypt, Erdoğan had taken a good step by going to Cairo and calling for
    secularism. We still have somewhat good relations with Tunisia. But
    when it comes to Syria, we failed; we could not see what was coming.

    How would you analyze this? Some observers put the blame on Erdoğan's
    advisors, and especially on Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, for some
    foreign policy decisions which have not been wise. What do you think?

    There have been some grave mistakes such as not being in good terms
    with Israel. This mistake was done before the Arab Spring. Turkey was
    an influential country in the Middle East because it was on good terms
    with both Israel and the Arab countries, so it could play an important
    role. After the Arab Spring, Turkey started to get too much involved
    in the domestic policies of the countries of the Middle East. One of
    the most important problems that Turkey needs to solve is its Kurdish
    issue; Turkey cannot be perceived as a strong country as long as its
    Kurdish problem persists. Additionally, having good relations with the
    EU is very important. The rhetoric among some Turkish politicians in
    Turkey is that the EU has been failing economically, but this is not
    true; both the EU and the United States still hold 50 percent of the
    world trade. We've almost forgotten about our membership process in
    the EU. Yes, the EU has not been opening some of the chapters in the
    negotiations process, but there is the issue of Cyprus waiting to be
    solved. Yes, the Cyprus issue has no urgency, but there are new
    developments in the area. Important gas deposits have been found in
    the Mediterranean Sea near Cyprus, and if the Cyprus dispute had been
    solved, the Turkish Cypriots would have been able to take advantage of
    the economic benefits of exporting the gas.

    Then there is the issue of Armenia. Even though good steps were taken
    in regards to Armenia, efforts failed. Having good relations with
    Armenia was important for Turkey as it would have to a certain extent
    reduced the zeal of Yerevan regarding the propaganda campaign against
    Turkey. Turkey would have been also able to play a more active role on
    the search for a solution to the Karabakh problem.

    ________________________________

    ‘No Kurds in Turkey should be envious of lives of other Kurds in region'

    Do you think Turkey has been taking the necessary steps to solve its
    Kurdish issue?

    There is a debate going on for the government's new democratization
    package. We will see very soon what substance the democratic package
    has. People of the Southeast have been optimistic in regards to the
    recent process and the government should take advantage of it and
    speed up the solution process. Regardless of what the Kurdistan
    Workers' Party [PKK] does, whether or not it pulls out, Turkey needs
    to take the democratic steps it needs to take, such as reducing or
    removing the election threshold, providing within certain limits
    education in mother tongue, etc. Solving Turkey's Kurdish problem is
    also important with regards to its relations with its immediate
    neighbors in the Southeast. If Syria disintegrates, there may be a
    Kurdish state at Turkey's southern border and there is already the
    Kurdish Regional Government [KRG] in northern Iraq. No Kurds in Turkey
    should be envious of the lives of their fellow Kurds in those areas.
    Plus, Turkey's Kurds live all over Turkey, especially in the west of
    Turkey.

    There are some conspiracy-theory holders in Turkey saying that the
    United States has long desired to establish an independent Kurdish
    state in Turkey's South, and this is what is happening. Do you agree
    with this view?

    Why the US would like to have an independent Kurdish state is hard to
    understand. The US is trying to withdraw entirely from the Middle
    East. Now the US has more gas and oil, it does not even need the oil
    it used to need from the Middle East. If Israel were not there, the US
    would not even have the presence it has now in the Middle East.

    ________________________________

    ‘Turkey cannot act as if there is no Egypt'

    A delegation from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP)
    paid a visit to Egypt to mend ties with officials from the coup
    administration and leaders of various political groups. Their visit
    was criticized by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Both opposition
    and government had called what happened in Egypt to oust the Muslim
    Brotherhood a military coup d'état. What is your comment on the CHP
    delegation's visit?

    It's been a very good initiative by the CHP officials. It shows
    Turkey's interest in Egypt. The Turkish government has been a harsh
    critic of the military regime in Egypt, but the visit shows that
    Turkey has interest in Egypt and the Egyptian people. We need to have
    really good relations with Egypt. Turkish businesspeople have serious
    investments in that country. Turkey and Egypt have mutual interests in
    the region. There is no need to have tension between Turkey and Egypt.
    Turkey has had harsh reactions in regards to the coup, recalled the
    Turkish ambassador in Egypt, called for [ousted President Mohammed]
    Morsi's immediate release, etc. These are interferences into Egypt's
    internal politics. In the world there are many democracies, but it can
    be discussed how much democracy is practiced in many countries. We
    have to see that in Egypt there has been strong opposition to the
    Muslim Brotherhood, but it may be small. Even Saudi Arabia was not
    happy with the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt is a country of 85 million
    people with historical ties to Turkey. Turkey cannot act as if there
    is no Egypt because the government has changed there, but of course,
    we can call for a return to democratic governance in Egypt; we have a
    right to say that, too.

    PROFILE

    Ambassador İlter Türkmen

    A former Turkish foreign minister (1980-1983), Türkmen was general
    commissioner of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for
    Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) from 1991 to 1996.
    Previously he was Turkey's ambassador to France. He also represented
    Turkey at the UN in New York (1975-1978 and 1984-1988). He was
    ambassador to Greece from 1968 to 1972 and to the former Soviet Union
    from 1972 to 1975.

    http://www.todayszaman.com/news-326450-former-fm-turkmen-ankara-has-not-calculated-well-regarding-syria.html


    From: Baghdasarian
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