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SERZH SARGSYANS' WILY SILENCE
Interview with Hovhannes Igityan, ex-chairman of NA Foreign Relations
Committee
Mr. Igityan, after the statement to join the Customs Union the
European leaders announced that Armenia cannot sign the Association
Agreement. In the meantime, opinions are expressed that not everything
is finished. Do you think there is a way back now?
Let's ignore statements that politicians attached to Serzh Sargsyan
make who are saying that the chance has not been lost, integration
continues, and they don't even care for what Fule says. If we
consider it more seriously, the free and comprehensive free trade
area was a big chance which Armenia missed. Everyone is speaking
about security but security is not only neutralization of missiles
flying towards Armenia but social, demographic, emigration issues,
and finally economic development. In the 21st century it is a shame
to have GDP per capita at 2000-3000 dollars. We need to take into
account two things: first, we were left behind the process; second,
Russia already set the deadline to join the Customs Union - May 2014,
and after membership to the Customs Union it will be impossible to
be in DCFTA.
Hence, the Association Agreement becomes something declarative, it is
what Armenia had even without legislative amendments: we respect our
people, we will protect our people's rights, democracy, justice etc.
Armenia was moving in that direction voluntarily, nobody forced
Armenia to face the EU, the EU is not Russia to talk to Armenia in
the language of blackmail and ultimatums. The EU gave a chance, and
the chance was in line with our interests. Now, every Republican is
speaking about the national interest of Armenia. But even if we take
the most optimistic numbers, annually 50,000 people leave, 50,000 by
ten years is half a million, by twenty years is one million. What is
the minimum population that our country needs to survive? Who will
answer this question? Meanwhile, the Customs Union will not open a
single job. The RPA oligarchs say it will be easier to trade but they
are already doing quite well, buying at 500 drams and selling at 1000.
Now they will buy at 400 drams but will not reduce the margin.
Over these years of negotiations nobody explained to the public the
meaning of DCFTA.
You are rights, over these three years nobody explained what DCFTA is,
everyone said we will have free trade with Europe. However, it is not
only free trade but it would enable whatever is produced in Europe to
be produced here. Siemens which opens factories in Hungary or Romania
could open a factory in Armenia which would be more lucrative, in
other words, Armenia would be part of the European economic family.
Investments would be made, jobs would be created. After all, we need
to take into account that producing in China is more costly than
in Armenia. What will the Customs Union bring to us without border
sharing? And with border sharing, all we would have would be one or
two percent growth of the budget and not a single new job.
Is membership to the Customs Union something formal then?
In our case yes, it is. Each of the three countries of the Customs
Union, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, pursues their political and
economic interests, they removed customs and set up a transnational
economic commission which establishes customs duties for each border
and each product. In other words, when a Chinese product crosses the
border of Kazakhstan to head for Russia, the duty goes to the budget
of Kazakhstan. We have inquired from economists on which product is
imported to Armenia from non-CU member states and exported to the CU.
There are not such products. Iranian products fall out because Iran
shares a border with Russia and it does not need to transport its
products to Armenia to further transport them to Kazakhstan. The same
goes for the Georgian goods, it also shares a border, so our budget
will not increase.
What made Serzh Sargsyan take such a step when we were preparing for
the Association Agreement? Was there a lack of security guarantees
that they agreed to take that step?
Now all we can do is guess because Serzh Sargsyan is silent, everyone
is speaking about Russian pressure, whereas I don't know whether there
was pressure from Russia or not. Now Europe does not blame Armenia
for denying its commitments and wasting money for four years but
blames Russia for pressure. Serzh Sargsyan keeps wily silence, and
his entourage speaks with if clauses, they say if he had not signed,
NKR security would be such.
Let's assume that Russia put forth a serious security-related problem
before Armenia to stipulate signing. For example, considering that
Russia has sold Smerch missiles to Azerbaijan which will be hard to
handle, it tells Armenia it will leave Armenia alone face to face with
Azerbaijan. Now I am asking Serzh Sargsyan whether he is sure that his
move eliminated the risk. Flattery or weakness cannot eliminate risks.
Danger is neutralized by being a factor. Don't think that a small
country cannot be a factor for a big country. Today Russia puts
pressure on Moldova, hence Moldova is a factor for Russia, and if it
puts pressure on Armenia, it means Armenia is a factor, and one can
face big states with a principled state policy. If Russia put pressure,
the risk of pressure is not eliminated.
Mr. Igityan, do you think Europe will start working with Armenia in
a different format?
Some serious politicians give a primitive presentation of the
situation. There must be a complex, diversified policy. We have deep
military monopolistic relations with Russia. Armenia votes for every
initiative of Russia at the UN or other international organizations,
in economy energy, communications, factories, train tracks are managed
by Russia. I see no risk. One can be in different systems, economic
or military. If this primitive statement is true, NATO member states
should sell only in NATO member states. This is nonsense. The world is
open, open borders are the first advantage since globalization. Every
country can sell their products in any other country. We are a CSTO
member, when Russia is attacked, we will do and defend it. Unlike
DCFTA, where we must determine the customs duties, standardization,
in the Customs Union the Eurasian Economic Commission headed by Victor
Khristenko will determine the customs policy.
As to further steps of cooperation with the EU, the EU says I am open.
They are even going to sign free trade agreements with China, Malaysia,
Indonesia and other Asian non-democratic states but within the Eastern
Partnership Armenia was one step ahead, Azerbaijan did not use this
chance, neither did Belarus. Armenia took a step which cannot be
reverted, and it has already had consequences in both the West and
Russia, and now it is very difficult to turn back because I can't
see the premises.
12:07 17/09/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/30902
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Interview with Hovhannes Igityan, ex-chairman of NA Foreign Relations
Committee
Mr. Igityan, after the statement to join the Customs Union the
European leaders announced that Armenia cannot sign the Association
Agreement. In the meantime, opinions are expressed that not everything
is finished. Do you think there is a way back now?
Let's ignore statements that politicians attached to Serzh Sargsyan
make who are saying that the chance has not been lost, integration
continues, and they don't even care for what Fule says. If we
consider it more seriously, the free and comprehensive free trade
area was a big chance which Armenia missed. Everyone is speaking
about security but security is not only neutralization of missiles
flying towards Armenia but social, demographic, emigration issues,
and finally economic development. In the 21st century it is a shame
to have GDP per capita at 2000-3000 dollars. We need to take into
account two things: first, we were left behind the process; second,
Russia already set the deadline to join the Customs Union - May 2014,
and after membership to the Customs Union it will be impossible to
be in DCFTA.
Hence, the Association Agreement becomes something declarative, it is
what Armenia had even without legislative amendments: we respect our
people, we will protect our people's rights, democracy, justice etc.
Armenia was moving in that direction voluntarily, nobody forced
Armenia to face the EU, the EU is not Russia to talk to Armenia in
the language of blackmail and ultimatums. The EU gave a chance, and
the chance was in line with our interests. Now, every Republican is
speaking about the national interest of Armenia. But even if we take
the most optimistic numbers, annually 50,000 people leave, 50,000 by
ten years is half a million, by twenty years is one million. What is
the minimum population that our country needs to survive? Who will
answer this question? Meanwhile, the Customs Union will not open a
single job. The RPA oligarchs say it will be easier to trade but they
are already doing quite well, buying at 500 drams and selling at 1000.
Now they will buy at 400 drams but will not reduce the margin.
Over these years of negotiations nobody explained to the public the
meaning of DCFTA.
You are rights, over these three years nobody explained what DCFTA is,
everyone said we will have free trade with Europe. However, it is not
only free trade but it would enable whatever is produced in Europe to
be produced here. Siemens which opens factories in Hungary or Romania
could open a factory in Armenia which would be more lucrative, in
other words, Armenia would be part of the European economic family.
Investments would be made, jobs would be created. After all, we need
to take into account that producing in China is more costly than
in Armenia. What will the Customs Union bring to us without border
sharing? And with border sharing, all we would have would be one or
two percent growth of the budget and not a single new job.
Is membership to the Customs Union something formal then?
In our case yes, it is. Each of the three countries of the Customs
Union, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, pursues their political and
economic interests, they removed customs and set up a transnational
economic commission which establishes customs duties for each border
and each product. In other words, when a Chinese product crosses the
border of Kazakhstan to head for Russia, the duty goes to the budget
of Kazakhstan. We have inquired from economists on which product is
imported to Armenia from non-CU member states and exported to the CU.
There are not such products. Iranian products fall out because Iran
shares a border with Russia and it does not need to transport its
products to Armenia to further transport them to Kazakhstan. The same
goes for the Georgian goods, it also shares a border, so our budget
will not increase.
What made Serzh Sargsyan take such a step when we were preparing for
the Association Agreement? Was there a lack of security guarantees
that they agreed to take that step?
Now all we can do is guess because Serzh Sargsyan is silent, everyone
is speaking about Russian pressure, whereas I don't know whether there
was pressure from Russia or not. Now Europe does not blame Armenia
for denying its commitments and wasting money for four years but
blames Russia for pressure. Serzh Sargsyan keeps wily silence, and
his entourage speaks with if clauses, they say if he had not signed,
NKR security would be such.
Let's assume that Russia put forth a serious security-related problem
before Armenia to stipulate signing. For example, considering that
Russia has sold Smerch missiles to Azerbaijan which will be hard to
handle, it tells Armenia it will leave Armenia alone face to face with
Azerbaijan. Now I am asking Serzh Sargsyan whether he is sure that his
move eliminated the risk. Flattery or weakness cannot eliminate risks.
Danger is neutralized by being a factor. Don't think that a small
country cannot be a factor for a big country. Today Russia puts
pressure on Moldova, hence Moldova is a factor for Russia, and if it
puts pressure on Armenia, it means Armenia is a factor, and one can
face big states with a principled state policy. If Russia put pressure,
the risk of pressure is not eliminated.
Mr. Igityan, do you think Europe will start working with Armenia in
a different format?
Some serious politicians give a primitive presentation of the
situation. There must be a complex, diversified policy. We have deep
military monopolistic relations with Russia. Armenia votes for every
initiative of Russia at the UN or other international organizations,
in economy energy, communications, factories, train tracks are managed
by Russia. I see no risk. One can be in different systems, economic
or military. If this primitive statement is true, NATO member states
should sell only in NATO member states. This is nonsense. The world is
open, open borders are the first advantage since globalization. Every
country can sell their products in any other country. We are a CSTO
member, when Russia is attacked, we will do and defend it. Unlike
DCFTA, where we must determine the customs duties, standardization,
in the Customs Union the Eurasian Economic Commission headed by Victor
Khristenko will determine the customs policy.
As to further steps of cooperation with the EU, the EU says I am open.
They are even going to sign free trade agreements with China, Malaysia,
Indonesia and other Asian non-democratic states but within the Eastern
Partnership Armenia was one step ahead, Azerbaijan did not use this
chance, neither did Belarus. Armenia took a step which cannot be
reverted, and it has already had consequences in both the West and
Russia, and now it is very difficult to turn back because I can't
see the premises.
12:07 17/09/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/30902
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress