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EU VS. RUSSIA
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Sept 17 2013
AMANDA PAUL
Two weeks ago I wrote about the decision of Armenian President Serzh
Sarksyan to join the Russian-led Customs Union instead of proceeding
with a trade agreement Yerevan had spent over three years negotiating
with the EU.
Armenia's turnaround acted as a wake-up call for the EU in terms of
understanding how seriously Russia is working to repeat the Armenia
case with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. With the EU's Vilnius Eastern
Partnership (EaP) Summit taking place in November and the Summit of
the Commonwealth of Independent States due to take place on Oct. 25,
a geopolitical battle is under way between the EU and Russia. For
the EU, this is a battle it cannot afford to lose in terms of the
success of its neighborhood policies.
The EaP was never intended to be anti-Russian. Russia views its
Western neighborhood as a strategic imperative and views the EaP as
a tool for containment. Hence the creation of its own integrating
projects. While there are no criteria or conditions for joining the
Customs Union, joining countries not only need to give a hefty chunk
of their budget to the new supranational institutions but also their
sovereignty. Hence the only way Moscow can get them on board is by
a lot of arm-twisting and bullying.
While Ukraine and Moldova are direct neighbors of the EU, with Ukraine
being of particular importance because of its size, regional role
and economic potential, Georgia should not be forgotten. Therefore,
I was disappointed when during a recent speech by Lithuanian President
Dalia GrybauskaitÄ-, she stated that the EU would fight for Ukraine and
Moldova, but when asked about Georgia she said Georgia had signaled
that it was interested in both options. She was no doubt referring
to the comments of Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili over
Customs Union membership despite the fact that Georgia's leadership
has reiterated on numerous occasions that European integration is
their priority.
While Georgia may be further away and in a difficult neighborhood,
it is equally important. While not everything is perfect, Georgia
has worked hard to meet EU criteria. Furthermore, it is now the only
country in the South Caucasus where the EU has real influence. Armenia
is lost, while leverage on Azerbaijan is almost non-existent. Russia
has already used a lot of sticks on Georgia. They have invaded the
country, occupied two regions, consolidated a military presence, cut
off gas supplies and banned Georgian wine and water. While Georgians
want good ties with Moscow, it needs to be a relationship of mutual
respect. I doubt Georgians will forget the image of Russian tanks
rolling towards Tbilisi only a few years ago. Yet Moscow still has
the cards and is likely to lure Tbilisi with carrots, with rumors
that Russia will offer to reverse its recognition of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia as independent states or even make a deal whereby one
of these regions is returned to Georgia.
The EU has reacted to Russia's new assertive approach, but so far
with words only. A European Parliament resolution states that "MEPs
deplored the unacceptable pressure that Russia has been putting on
EU Eastern Partnership countries as the Vilnius Eastern Partnership
Summit approaches. They call on Moscow to respect the independent
states' sovereignty and not to intervene in their internal affairs,
as required by international law." Unfortunately, this demand is
about as likely to be met as asking a lion to no longer eat meat.
Small and vulnerable states such as Georgia need to know the EU
is fully behind them and that they will get adequate support both
politically and economically. The EU needs to move away from what
is often viewed as a passive approach and show some real strategic
thinking. It needs to demonstrate that its neighborhood policies
have teeth and are able to deliver. The EU should start to open its
markets, increase financial assistance and proceed more rapidly with
the lifting of visas. Second, it needs to speed up its technical
readiness, which often seems to move at a snail's pace. Moreover,
it needs to show the ticket it has sold its neighbors has an end
destination, which is presently not the case.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=326652
From: Baghdasarian
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Sept 17 2013
AMANDA PAUL
Two weeks ago I wrote about the decision of Armenian President Serzh
Sarksyan to join the Russian-led Customs Union instead of proceeding
with a trade agreement Yerevan had spent over three years negotiating
with the EU.
Armenia's turnaround acted as a wake-up call for the EU in terms of
understanding how seriously Russia is working to repeat the Armenia
case with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. With the EU's Vilnius Eastern
Partnership (EaP) Summit taking place in November and the Summit of
the Commonwealth of Independent States due to take place on Oct. 25,
a geopolitical battle is under way between the EU and Russia. For
the EU, this is a battle it cannot afford to lose in terms of the
success of its neighborhood policies.
The EaP was never intended to be anti-Russian. Russia views its
Western neighborhood as a strategic imperative and views the EaP as
a tool for containment. Hence the creation of its own integrating
projects. While there are no criteria or conditions for joining the
Customs Union, joining countries not only need to give a hefty chunk
of their budget to the new supranational institutions but also their
sovereignty. Hence the only way Moscow can get them on board is by
a lot of arm-twisting and bullying.
While Ukraine and Moldova are direct neighbors of the EU, with Ukraine
being of particular importance because of its size, regional role
and economic potential, Georgia should not be forgotten. Therefore,
I was disappointed when during a recent speech by Lithuanian President
Dalia GrybauskaitÄ-, she stated that the EU would fight for Ukraine and
Moldova, but when asked about Georgia she said Georgia had signaled
that it was interested in both options. She was no doubt referring
to the comments of Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili over
Customs Union membership despite the fact that Georgia's leadership
has reiterated on numerous occasions that European integration is
their priority.
While Georgia may be further away and in a difficult neighborhood,
it is equally important. While not everything is perfect, Georgia
has worked hard to meet EU criteria. Furthermore, it is now the only
country in the South Caucasus where the EU has real influence. Armenia
is lost, while leverage on Azerbaijan is almost non-existent. Russia
has already used a lot of sticks on Georgia. They have invaded the
country, occupied two regions, consolidated a military presence, cut
off gas supplies and banned Georgian wine and water. While Georgians
want good ties with Moscow, it needs to be a relationship of mutual
respect. I doubt Georgians will forget the image of Russian tanks
rolling towards Tbilisi only a few years ago. Yet Moscow still has
the cards and is likely to lure Tbilisi with carrots, with rumors
that Russia will offer to reverse its recognition of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia as independent states or even make a deal whereby one
of these regions is returned to Georgia.
The EU has reacted to Russia's new assertive approach, but so far
with words only. A European Parliament resolution states that "MEPs
deplored the unacceptable pressure that Russia has been putting on
EU Eastern Partnership countries as the Vilnius Eastern Partnership
Summit approaches. They call on Moscow to respect the independent
states' sovereignty and not to intervene in their internal affairs,
as required by international law." Unfortunately, this demand is
about as likely to be met as asking a lion to no longer eat meat.
Small and vulnerable states such as Georgia need to know the EU
is fully behind them and that they will get adequate support both
politically and economically. The EU needs to move away from what
is often viewed as a passive approach and show some real strategic
thinking. It needs to demonstrate that its neighborhood policies
have teeth and are able to deliver. The EU should start to open its
markets, increase financial assistance and proceed more rapidly with
the lifting of visas. Second, it needs to speed up its technical
readiness, which often seems to move at a snail's pace. Moreover,
it needs to show the ticket it has sold its neighbors has an end
destination, which is presently not the case.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=326652
From: Baghdasarian