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KARABAKH AND COUP
Naira Hayrumyan
Comments - Tuesday, 17 September 2013, 20:55
Armenia is trying to figure out the economic and political benefits
that its membership to the Customs Union may bring about, understanding
that benefits are ruled out initially. People wonder what pushes us
into that union. Zbigniew Brzezinski described it precisely. He said
that Russia is merely trying to subject the post-Soviet states which
are still independent. The next, according to Brzezinski, will be
Ukraine which depends on Russia more than Armenia.
However, it is not ruled out that Azerbaijan will be the next which
helped Russia to bend Armenia towards the Customs Union. The Russian
analytical press hints that Azerbaijan may suffer considerably in
case it wants to join the Customs Union. Russia does not need Armenia
without Azerbaijan, these two countries always go together for Moscow.
And now, having achieved Armenia's consent, Russia will move on to
Baku with similar arguments as for Yerevan - a coup in Karabakh -
in the same order. Russia continues to sell arms to Azerbaijan even
after Serzh Sargsyan's agreement. Moscow did not turn its back
to Baku, on the contrary, activated its efforts. In addition, a
presidential election will be held in Azerbaijan in October, and the
Azerbaijani mass media are predicting a coup. The threat of coup is,
most probably, Putin's key argument vis-a-vis Serzh Sargsyan. All
through the summer the political forces yelled about the failure of
the economic policy and that the Association with the EU would give
away Karabakh. Moreover, the parties declared rallies and vote of no
confidence for this fall. All through the summer Armenia was shaking
with protests, scandals, leakages. The skeleton of civic activists were
able to stay "clean" though even they said that someone is provoking
clashes and unrest. Notably, after the statement to join the Customs
Union activism declined considerably. In this regard, it took a hint
that those processes were coordinated to convey to Serzh Sargsyan
that change of government was quite realistic, as well as equally
realistic for Ilham Aliyev. A similar situation characterizes the
Karabakh issue. Not having announced about its intentions, Russia
retains its levers of influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan. A single
step by Aliyev may be followed by the recognition of NKR by Russia,
while Serzh Sargsyan's ruses may lead to a "small war" in Karabakh.
The European Parliament has adopted a special resolution on pressure
exerted by Russia on the post-Soviet states and committed to coming
forth with measures to support these countries. What measures can
Europe come forth with?
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30907
Naira Hayrumyan
Comments - Tuesday, 17 September 2013, 20:55
Armenia is trying to figure out the economic and political benefits
that its membership to the Customs Union may bring about, understanding
that benefits are ruled out initially. People wonder what pushes us
into that union. Zbigniew Brzezinski described it precisely. He said
that Russia is merely trying to subject the post-Soviet states which
are still independent. The next, according to Brzezinski, will be
Ukraine which depends on Russia more than Armenia.
However, it is not ruled out that Azerbaijan will be the next which
helped Russia to bend Armenia towards the Customs Union. The Russian
analytical press hints that Azerbaijan may suffer considerably in
case it wants to join the Customs Union. Russia does not need Armenia
without Azerbaijan, these two countries always go together for Moscow.
And now, having achieved Armenia's consent, Russia will move on to
Baku with similar arguments as for Yerevan - a coup in Karabakh -
in the same order. Russia continues to sell arms to Azerbaijan even
after Serzh Sargsyan's agreement. Moscow did not turn its back
to Baku, on the contrary, activated its efforts. In addition, a
presidential election will be held in Azerbaijan in October, and the
Azerbaijani mass media are predicting a coup. The threat of coup is,
most probably, Putin's key argument vis-a-vis Serzh Sargsyan. All
through the summer the political forces yelled about the failure of
the economic policy and that the Association with the EU would give
away Karabakh. Moreover, the parties declared rallies and vote of no
confidence for this fall. All through the summer Armenia was shaking
with protests, scandals, leakages. The skeleton of civic activists were
able to stay "clean" though even they said that someone is provoking
clashes and unrest. Notably, after the statement to join the Customs
Union activism declined considerably. In this regard, it took a hint
that those processes were coordinated to convey to Serzh Sargsyan
that change of government was quite realistic, as well as equally
realistic for Ilham Aliyev. A similar situation characterizes the
Karabakh issue. Not having announced about its intentions, Russia
retains its levers of influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan. A single
step by Aliyev may be followed by the recognition of NKR by Russia,
while Serzh Sargsyan's ruses may lead to a "small war" in Karabakh.
The European Parliament has adopted a special resolution on pressure
exerted by Russia on the post-Soviet states and committed to coming
forth with measures to support these countries. What measures can
Europe come forth with?
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30907