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PUTIN POLITICS, OR HOW BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU!
European Public Affairs, EU
Sept 18 2013
18 September 2013 | by Olesia Ogryzko
The Bible tells us to love our neighbours, and also to love our
enemies; probably because they are generally the same people.
-G.K. Chesterton
Hostile or not, neighbour relations are not the easiest. Especially if
the neighbour knows it better: knows the what, when and where for you.
So does Russia now. Big Brother is watching you! In this case:
the Eastern European space. The space which is not as hopeless as
this desperate East-Central Europe that after (as Mr. Putin says)
the biggest geopolitical tragedy (!) of the XX century, namely the
collapse of the Soviet Union, rushed to join the dark side - the
EU/NATO. Apparently, that side had more and better cookies to offer.
But the Kremlin will never admit that.
USSR.2.0 aka Customs Union is calling, baby!
Nonetheless, having lost these former allies, there are still a
few other fellows that can be persuaded not to make this "fatal
and suicidal" mistake. There is still hope to guide EU's Eastern
Partnership countries (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia
and Belarus) to the promising future, or shall we say back into the
future? USSR.2.0 aka Customs Union is calling, baby!
It is calling persistently, constantly and quite painfully in the
last couple of weeks. With the Eastern Partnership Summit imminently
approaching, Russia prefers sticks rather than carrots in its policy
towards its Western neighbours.
Sweet November
The summit, taking place in November in Vilnius, is of crucial
geopolitical significance not only for these six partner countries,
but also for Europe in general and, obviously, for Russia. There,
the future of the whole Eastern European dimension will be decided,
with its prospects and developments. The story around the Association
Agreement and FTA that might (or not) be signed with Ukraine, and
initialled with Moldova and Georgia will demonstrate EU's vision of the
future of the Union: level of cooperation with the East, determination
of geographical boarders of Europe and general enlargement policy. For
the six countries concerned this will serve as a clear indicator of
whether they are welcome in the EU or not. In a negative scenario
they are likely to turn to Russia - a decision for many decades
ahead. At stake in Russia is the dominance over the last bits of
its former might, restoration of its ever fading imperial paranoia
and the successfulness of the Customs Union, which unites Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan now.
Henceforth, this upcoming event is a major milestone, forcing all
parties to prepare in their own way. Playing cool, the EU tries not to
show the fact that a successful Vilnius summit is as important for the
Union as it is for the Eastern partners. Thus, at times criticizing,
at times encouraging the "Eastern six", the EU has kept a straight face
until recently. The partner-countries are hectically implementing all
the required reforms to correspond with EU standards, like students
feverishly completing the homework in the break before the lesson. And
Russia is doing what the logic of its political machinery tells it to
do: breaching the Helsinki Accords, WTO regulations and the Budapest
Memorandum all at once. Because Russia likes it big: if violate- then
in large amounts only. It is now pressuring the three "lucky ones"
being Ukraine, Moldova and Armenia, to dissuade them from "going West".
Russia's wakeup call
Russia's art of persuasion takes the shape of economical, energy and
security threats. Let us start with the first. Creating artificial
trade obstacles, new cumbersome border checks, severe customs
restrictions, clearing detentions and unreasonable sample checks.
These actions, which Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt called
"economic warfare", caused an almost complete (!) standstill of
Ukrainian exports to Russia - Ukraine's major trade partner country,
by the way. Additionally, a ban on products from Ukraine's major
confectionary producer as well as on Moldova's wines and spirits is
still in force. As Putin's advisor Sergei Glazyev kindly indicated,
this blockade is designed to demonstrate what will happen in the
event of signing the EU agreement.
The second threat is connected to Russia's trump card - gas. "Energy
supplies are important in the run-up to winter, I hope you won't
freeze" was a quite unambiguous remark to Moldova by senior envoy
Rogozin. A similar message was sent to Kyiv, consequently reminding
of the 2006 and 2009 gas supply cuts, severely hitting some of the
East-Central European countries dependant on Ukrainian transit.
The third threat deals with conflict resolutions. Both Moldova
and Armenia are facing frozen internal conflicts. Transnistria and
Nagorno-Kharabakh are their Achille's heels, which Russia, being
a major security grantor in both cases, just could not resist. As
a result - we heard the official statement on behalf of Armenian
authorities that the country is joining the Customs Union instead of
pursuing the EU FTA pact. Thus, in geopolitical maths it is now 6-1.
EU's response
Having gathered a critical mass of Russia's violations (Syrian
sentiments undoubtedly contribute to Europe's malice), the EU finally
decided to break the silence. Addressing Russia's strong-arm tactics,
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso affirmed during
the annual state of the Union speech to the European Parliament:
"We cannot accept any attempt to limit these countries' own sovereign
choices...We cannot turn our back on them".
The European Parliament also decided to take action and adopted the
resolution "On the pressure exerted by Russia on the Easter Partnership
countries (in the context of the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit
in Vilnius)" on the 12th September. Firmly rejecting these unacceptable
actions, the MEPs call on Russia to respect the sovereign right of the
nation states to pursue their own political aspirations. Supported by
all main parties, the text of the resolution appeals to the Commission,
Council and European External Action Service to take "concrete and
effective" measures in defence of the Union's partners, as well as
view the developments as beyond a purely economic dimension, being
merely a cover for retaliation and political pressure. Moreover,
strong support for initialling and signing the agreement in November
with those willing and ready, has been reaffirmed.
What's next?
As Commissioner Fule indicated, "if they [the Eastern Partnership
countries] become the subject of undue pressure because of exercising
their free choice, they can count on the solidarity [of the EU]".
Together with EP's resolution this is already a major political
signal. However, as we all know, actions speak louder than words. This
would be a perfect opportunity for the EU to demonstrate its capability
for crisis management and sticking to previously given political
commitments towards Eastern Europe.
Hence, having already "lost" the Armenian battle, what else is
the EU ready to sacrifice? What is the measure of "undue pressure"
for the EU to step in? And what exactly does "solidarity" imply in
this sense: another sharply-worded resolution or real sanctions? All
these questions should not be rhetorical if the EU wants the Eastern
Partnership to be its success story.
Related links:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+MOTION+P7-RC-2013-0389+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN
http://euobserver.com/foreign/121392
http://www.euractiv.com/europes-east/meps-urge-russia-respect-pro-eu-news-530441
http://euobserver.com/foreign/121304
http://www.europeanpublicaffairs.eu/putin-politics-or-how-big-brother-is-watching-you/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=putin-politics-or-how-big-brother-is-watching-you
European Public Affairs, EU
Sept 18 2013
18 September 2013 | by Olesia Ogryzko
The Bible tells us to love our neighbours, and also to love our
enemies; probably because they are generally the same people.
-G.K. Chesterton
Hostile or not, neighbour relations are not the easiest. Especially if
the neighbour knows it better: knows the what, when and where for you.
So does Russia now. Big Brother is watching you! In this case:
the Eastern European space. The space which is not as hopeless as
this desperate East-Central Europe that after (as Mr. Putin says)
the biggest geopolitical tragedy (!) of the XX century, namely the
collapse of the Soviet Union, rushed to join the dark side - the
EU/NATO. Apparently, that side had more and better cookies to offer.
But the Kremlin will never admit that.
USSR.2.0 aka Customs Union is calling, baby!
Nonetheless, having lost these former allies, there are still a
few other fellows that can be persuaded not to make this "fatal
and suicidal" mistake. There is still hope to guide EU's Eastern
Partnership countries (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia
and Belarus) to the promising future, or shall we say back into the
future? USSR.2.0 aka Customs Union is calling, baby!
It is calling persistently, constantly and quite painfully in the
last couple of weeks. With the Eastern Partnership Summit imminently
approaching, Russia prefers sticks rather than carrots in its policy
towards its Western neighbours.
Sweet November
The summit, taking place in November in Vilnius, is of crucial
geopolitical significance not only for these six partner countries,
but also for Europe in general and, obviously, for Russia. There,
the future of the whole Eastern European dimension will be decided,
with its prospects and developments. The story around the Association
Agreement and FTA that might (or not) be signed with Ukraine, and
initialled with Moldova and Georgia will demonstrate EU's vision of the
future of the Union: level of cooperation with the East, determination
of geographical boarders of Europe and general enlargement policy. For
the six countries concerned this will serve as a clear indicator of
whether they are welcome in the EU or not. In a negative scenario
they are likely to turn to Russia - a decision for many decades
ahead. At stake in Russia is the dominance over the last bits of
its former might, restoration of its ever fading imperial paranoia
and the successfulness of the Customs Union, which unites Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan now.
Henceforth, this upcoming event is a major milestone, forcing all
parties to prepare in their own way. Playing cool, the EU tries not to
show the fact that a successful Vilnius summit is as important for the
Union as it is for the Eastern partners. Thus, at times criticizing,
at times encouraging the "Eastern six", the EU has kept a straight face
until recently. The partner-countries are hectically implementing all
the required reforms to correspond with EU standards, like students
feverishly completing the homework in the break before the lesson. And
Russia is doing what the logic of its political machinery tells it to
do: breaching the Helsinki Accords, WTO regulations and the Budapest
Memorandum all at once. Because Russia likes it big: if violate- then
in large amounts only. It is now pressuring the three "lucky ones"
being Ukraine, Moldova and Armenia, to dissuade them from "going West".
Russia's wakeup call
Russia's art of persuasion takes the shape of economical, energy and
security threats. Let us start with the first. Creating artificial
trade obstacles, new cumbersome border checks, severe customs
restrictions, clearing detentions and unreasonable sample checks.
These actions, which Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt called
"economic warfare", caused an almost complete (!) standstill of
Ukrainian exports to Russia - Ukraine's major trade partner country,
by the way. Additionally, a ban on products from Ukraine's major
confectionary producer as well as on Moldova's wines and spirits is
still in force. As Putin's advisor Sergei Glazyev kindly indicated,
this blockade is designed to demonstrate what will happen in the
event of signing the EU agreement.
The second threat is connected to Russia's trump card - gas. "Energy
supplies are important in the run-up to winter, I hope you won't
freeze" was a quite unambiguous remark to Moldova by senior envoy
Rogozin. A similar message was sent to Kyiv, consequently reminding
of the 2006 and 2009 gas supply cuts, severely hitting some of the
East-Central European countries dependant on Ukrainian transit.
The third threat deals with conflict resolutions. Both Moldova
and Armenia are facing frozen internal conflicts. Transnistria and
Nagorno-Kharabakh are their Achille's heels, which Russia, being
a major security grantor in both cases, just could not resist. As
a result - we heard the official statement on behalf of Armenian
authorities that the country is joining the Customs Union instead of
pursuing the EU FTA pact. Thus, in geopolitical maths it is now 6-1.
EU's response
Having gathered a critical mass of Russia's violations (Syrian
sentiments undoubtedly contribute to Europe's malice), the EU finally
decided to break the silence. Addressing Russia's strong-arm tactics,
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso affirmed during
the annual state of the Union speech to the European Parliament:
"We cannot accept any attempt to limit these countries' own sovereign
choices...We cannot turn our back on them".
The European Parliament also decided to take action and adopted the
resolution "On the pressure exerted by Russia on the Easter Partnership
countries (in the context of the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit
in Vilnius)" on the 12th September. Firmly rejecting these unacceptable
actions, the MEPs call on Russia to respect the sovereign right of the
nation states to pursue their own political aspirations. Supported by
all main parties, the text of the resolution appeals to the Commission,
Council and European External Action Service to take "concrete and
effective" measures in defence of the Union's partners, as well as
view the developments as beyond a purely economic dimension, being
merely a cover for retaliation and political pressure. Moreover,
strong support for initialling and signing the agreement in November
with those willing and ready, has been reaffirmed.
What's next?
As Commissioner Fule indicated, "if they [the Eastern Partnership
countries] become the subject of undue pressure because of exercising
their free choice, they can count on the solidarity [of the EU]".
Together with EP's resolution this is already a major political
signal. However, as we all know, actions speak louder than words. This
would be a perfect opportunity for the EU to demonstrate its capability
for crisis management and sticking to previously given political
commitments towards Eastern Europe.
Hence, having already "lost" the Armenian battle, what else is
the EU ready to sacrifice? What is the measure of "undue pressure"
for the EU to step in? And what exactly does "solidarity" imply in
this sense: another sharply-worded resolution or real sanctions? All
these questions should not be rhetorical if the EU wants the Eastern
Partnership to be its success story.
Related links:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+MOTION+P7-RC-2013-0389+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN
http://euobserver.com/foreign/121392
http://www.euractiv.com/europes-east/meps-urge-russia-respect-pro-eu-news-530441
http://euobserver.com/foreign/121304
http://www.europeanpublicaffairs.eu/putin-politics-or-how-big-brother-is-watching-you/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=putin-politics-or-how-big-brother-is-watching-you