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BLOCKADED ARMENIA SHOULD BECOME THE ONLY COUNTRY TO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP SECURITY WITH THE CSTO AND ECONOMY WITH THE EU
ArmInfo's interview with Karabakh War Hero, Major General Arkady
Ter-Tadevosyan (Commandos)
by David Stepanyan
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=77806270-2111-11E3-999E0EB7C0D21663
Thursday, September 19, 13:54
Armenia's accession to the Customs Union has evoked polemics among
those who support the idea and those who oppose it. Russophiles claim
that there is no alternative to Russia as a guarantor of Armenia's
national security. How much will the accession to the Customs Union
strengthen our security?
Defense capacity of Armenia and NKR depends on the level of interaction
with the CSTO, which we are increasing constantly. All our arms
are made in Russia. We continue to receive arms from Russia. And
Azerbaijan does the same, unfortunately. The 102nd Russian military
base in Gyumri is another element of Armenia's security. To assess
the real level of threats to security of Nagorno Karabakh, one should,
at least, be there. In 1993 Baku developed an ideal plan of occupying
Karabakh - Shimshit (blitzkrieg) - with help of the Turkish General
Staff. That plan of attacks from five directions did not work then
and the enemy was defeated. Azerbaijan has some alternative plans,
but the best one is "Shimshit." It has been tested many times during
military exercises. Baku has no better plan than "Shimshit," given
that the north of Karabakh is protected with mountain chains, while
Martakert region, the eastern part of NKR's defense, remains open. The
North of Karabakh is strongly protected with mountains and Azerbaijan's
'Shimshit' will face strong resistance. Azerbaijan will suffer big
losses. The only difference is that many civilians will fell victim
to that aggression on the Armenian party, while Azerbaijan will lose
mainly militaries. Anyway, it is evident that a new war will end in
another, final defeat of Azerbaijan. In Turkey they also realize that
probability. Therefore, Turks and Azeris have developed the project
'one nation-one army.' They try to improve their Armed Forces on
the basis of the NATO standards. They take joint strategic steps,
create military unions, and fulfill the same missions. It is a very
serious project that cannot but inspire us with real concerns.
There is no alternative to the close alliance with Russia. Maybe,
cooperation and union with Europe would be more effective for
Armenia's economic development, but never for security. Withdrawal
of the Russian military base from Armenia will not contribute to the
country's security.
Well, but there are also other security systems, NATO, for instance...
Blockaded by its two neighbors denying the international law Armenia
has occurred in a specific situation. Neither the EU nor Russia can
now influence Turkey and Azerbaijan on the matter. In such situation,
I think, Armenia should become an exception in geopolitics and get an
opportunity to develop security with the CSTO and economy with the EU.
This concept will make it possible for Armenia to minimize security
risks and improve its economic situation. Therefore, it is necessary
to separate economy from politics.
The Association Agreement aims to reduce Russia's influence on the
Eastern Partnership countries, including Armenia...
Sure, this policy has come to replace the 'cold war' and today the
unipolar world managed by the USA is gradually becoming bipolar
and even tripolar. And this process is impossible without projects
like the EU-initiated Association Agreement. Therefore, integration
trends are inevitable, but the US fights those trends not to lose its
hegemony in the world. That is why, there have been disagreements and
contradictions over Armenia's integration vector at the top level. As
far as I know, there were disagreements even at the session of the
National Security Council and the Parliament of Armenia. So, we need
a special approach by superpowers.
However, there is no such approach...the last time, we were hinted
at that fact in Novo-ogarevo on 3 September.
Moscow will not oppose successful development of the trade and
economic ties of Armenia and the EU, of course, if in Brussels they
go on such step. I don't think that the meeting of the Armenian
and Russian presidents in Novo-Ogarevo went smoothly. Nevertheless,
the presidents managed to agree on the perspectives of the existing
economic cooperation of Armenia and the EU and the military-political
cooperation with Russia. The EU and USA also exert certain pressure
on Armenia.
Politics and the truth are often incompatible, which can be seen
in our relations with Russia, USA and Europe. Therefore, we should
act on the basis of what we have now: Russian frontier guards on
the Armenian-Turkish border, security provision by the CSTO. In
such situation, it is Armenia that must provide security to Nagorno
Karabakh.
Armenia's possible accession to the Customs Union implies Yerevan's
refusal from political cooperation with the EU and USA i.e. from
counterbalance. Russia is not the Soviet Union. We must remember
that fact. Are there any guarantees that Moscow will not "present"
Baku with a couple of regions of NKR for its own interests?
The USSR and Turkey used to divide Armenian territories once, and
we see the result of the division. In this context, a new contract
between Russia and Turkey, which has been recently made by Dmitriy
Medvedev, causes anxiety, as it was signed at the day of the shameful
Moscow Treaty made in 1921. Fortunately, today the world is a little
bit different. We have the UN, and a viewpoint of small countries
means something in international organizations. This is a straw we
hold onto, we have got no other one. For this reason, Armenia needs
strict national programs for protection of its national interests. We
need a course, which the Armenians of the world will drive forward by
joint efforts. Our problem is that Armenia does not have such programs.
What was the goal of selling weapons for $4 billion to Azerbaijan? Who
besides us will those Russian 'smerches' be used against?
They say that there is no other sense than a financial one in the sale
of weapons for $4 billion by Russia to Azerbaijan. However, I cannot
understand the logic of such a step by Moscow against friendly Armenia.
Do you think that AR1A systems will recompense acquisition of the
Russian "Smerch" systems by Azerbaijan?
We have already acquired and keep acquiring Chinese AR1A multiple
launch rocket systems. It is not announced officially, but following
the recent delivery of arms to Azerbaijan, Moscow began supplying
arms also to Armenia.
I don't think that acquisition of AR1A systems was Yerevan's response
to delivery of Russian arms to Azerbaijan. Negotiations were held
yet before that deal. We have never kept that in secret. Military
balance isn't the point, though AR1A is a very effective system hitting
both the manpower and infrastructures. It is much more important for
Azerbaijan to have trucks for its tanks, if they decide to 'make a
stay' in Karabakh. There are very few such trucks and even if Aliyev
acquires several thousands more tanks, they will stick in a "tank
traffic jam" in Karabakh. Suffice it to look at the map of Nagorno
Karabakh to make sure that there are very limited opportunities for
application of military hardware in Karabakh.
ArmInfo's interview with Karabakh War Hero, Major General Arkady
Ter-Tadevosyan (Commandos)
by David Stepanyan
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=77806270-2111-11E3-999E0EB7C0D21663
Thursday, September 19, 13:54
Armenia's accession to the Customs Union has evoked polemics among
those who support the idea and those who oppose it. Russophiles claim
that there is no alternative to Russia as a guarantor of Armenia's
national security. How much will the accession to the Customs Union
strengthen our security?
Defense capacity of Armenia and NKR depends on the level of interaction
with the CSTO, which we are increasing constantly. All our arms
are made in Russia. We continue to receive arms from Russia. And
Azerbaijan does the same, unfortunately. The 102nd Russian military
base in Gyumri is another element of Armenia's security. To assess
the real level of threats to security of Nagorno Karabakh, one should,
at least, be there. In 1993 Baku developed an ideal plan of occupying
Karabakh - Shimshit (blitzkrieg) - with help of the Turkish General
Staff. That plan of attacks from five directions did not work then
and the enemy was defeated. Azerbaijan has some alternative plans,
but the best one is "Shimshit." It has been tested many times during
military exercises. Baku has no better plan than "Shimshit," given
that the north of Karabakh is protected with mountain chains, while
Martakert region, the eastern part of NKR's defense, remains open. The
North of Karabakh is strongly protected with mountains and Azerbaijan's
'Shimshit' will face strong resistance. Azerbaijan will suffer big
losses. The only difference is that many civilians will fell victim
to that aggression on the Armenian party, while Azerbaijan will lose
mainly militaries. Anyway, it is evident that a new war will end in
another, final defeat of Azerbaijan. In Turkey they also realize that
probability. Therefore, Turks and Azeris have developed the project
'one nation-one army.' They try to improve their Armed Forces on
the basis of the NATO standards. They take joint strategic steps,
create military unions, and fulfill the same missions. It is a very
serious project that cannot but inspire us with real concerns.
There is no alternative to the close alliance with Russia. Maybe,
cooperation and union with Europe would be more effective for
Armenia's economic development, but never for security. Withdrawal
of the Russian military base from Armenia will not contribute to the
country's security.
Well, but there are also other security systems, NATO, for instance...
Blockaded by its two neighbors denying the international law Armenia
has occurred in a specific situation. Neither the EU nor Russia can
now influence Turkey and Azerbaijan on the matter. In such situation,
I think, Armenia should become an exception in geopolitics and get an
opportunity to develop security with the CSTO and economy with the EU.
This concept will make it possible for Armenia to minimize security
risks and improve its economic situation. Therefore, it is necessary
to separate economy from politics.
The Association Agreement aims to reduce Russia's influence on the
Eastern Partnership countries, including Armenia...
Sure, this policy has come to replace the 'cold war' and today the
unipolar world managed by the USA is gradually becoming bipolar
and even tripolar. And this process is impossible without projects
like the EU-initiated Association Agreement. Therefore, integration
trends are inevitable, but the US fights those trends not to lose its
hegemony in the world. That is why, there have been disagreements and
contradictions over Armenia's integration vector at the top level. As
far as I know, there were disagreements even at the session of the
National Security Council and the Parliament of Armenia. So, we need
a special approach by superpowers.
However, there is no such approach...the last time, we were hinted
at that fact in Novo-ogarevo on 3 September.
Moscow will not oppose successful development of the trade and
economic ties of Armenia and the EU, of course, if in Brussels they
go on such step. I don't think that the meeting of the Armenian
and Russian presidents in Novo-Ogarevo went smoothly. Nevertheless,
the presidents managed to agree on the perspectives of the existing
economic cooperation of Armenia and the EU and the military-political
cooperation with Russia. The EU and USA also exert certain pressure
on Armenia.
Politics and the truth are often incompatible, which can be seen
in our relations with Russia, USA and Europe. Therefore, we should
act on the basis of what we have now: Russian frontier guards on
the Armenian-Turkish border, security provision by the CSTO. In
such situation, it is Armenia that must provide security to Nagorno
Karabakh.
Armenia's possible accession to the Customs Union implies Yerevan's
refusal from political cooperation with the EU and USA i.e. from
counterbalance. Russia is not the Soviet Union. We must remember
that fact. Are there any guarantees that Moscow will not "present"
Baku with a couple of regions of NKR for its own interests?
The USSR and Turkey used to divide Armenian territories once, and
we see the result of the division. In this context, a new contract
between Russia and Turkey, which has been recently made by Dmitriy
Medvedev, causes anxiety, as it was signed at the day of the shameful
Moscow Treaty made in 1921. Fortunately, today the world is a little
bit different. We have the UN, and a viewpoint of small countries
means something in international organizations. This is a straw we
hold onto, we have got no other one. For this reason, Armenia needs
strict national programs for protection of its national interests. We
need a course, which the Armenians of the world will drive forward by
joint efforts. Our problem is that Armenia does not have such programs.
What was the goal of selling weapons for $4 billion to Azerbaijan? Who
besides us will those Russian 'smerches' be used against?
They say that there is no other sense than a financial one in the sale
of weapons for $4 billion by Russia to Azerbaijan. However, I cannot
understand the logic of such a step by Moscow against friendly Armenia.
Do you think that AR1A systems will recompense acquisition of the
Russian "Smerch" systems by Azerbaijan?
We have already acquired and keep acquiring Chinese AR1A multiple
launch rocket systems. It is not announced officially, but following
the recent delivery of arms to Azerbaijan, Moscow began supplying
arms also to Armenia.
I don't think that acquisition of AR1A systems was Yerevan's response
to delivery of Russian arms to Azerbaijan. Negotiations were held
yet before that deal. We have never kept that in secret. Military
balance isn't the point, though AR1A is a very effective system hitting
both the manpower and infrastructures. It is much more important for
Azerbaijan to have trucks for its tanks, if they decide to 'make a
stay' in Karabakh. There are very few such trucks and even if Aliyev
acquires several thousands more tanks, they will stick in a "tank
traffic jam" in Karabakh. Suffice it to look at the map of Nagorno
Karabakh to make sure that there are very limited opportunities for
application of military hardware in Karabakh.