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Armenia Is Trump Card Against Russia
So, there are obvious signs that the resolution on the
Armenia-Russia-EU `conflict' has been made, the scenario of the
`conflict' will be used 100% and even more.
It would be ingenuous to think that it could have been otherwise,
considering the political ambitions of the European Union and the
established mechanism of having decisions on certain, including
regional issues agreed with the United States.
Expectations that Armenia would be forgotten did not come true, and
this should be acknowledged. Although emotions overwhelmed the
corridors on Schuman Roundabout, decisions are not made by officials
but politicians, and the Western community has understood that it has
received an interesting trump card in the games with Russia and
Eastern Europe.
In Armenia they will most probably focus on different objectives
relating not only to Russia but also Turkey. In addition, it should be
noted that these scenarios had been worked out earlier and should have
been implemented after the signing of the Agreement on November 29.
Hence, there are no new scenarios, there are only new schedules and
order of actions.
Apart from pragmatic motives relating to the geopolitical blockade of
Armenia, not just pressure, there are issues relating to the image and
authority of the European Union. It is possible that in Armenia hardly
anyone noticed but Russia has declared a political war to the European
Union, and one can remember a similar situation after the war in
Yugoslavia.
Besides, the West must demonstrate to Ukraine that it can assert its
position and do it quite rapidly and quite convincingly. Armenia is
not Ukraine, and demonstration of continuity of the policy does not
require big funds.
In the meantime, on `September 3' the understanding of the reality in
the South Caucasus played a big role. Over the years of talks with the
European Union Armenia never dared to take initiatives for
consideration of `compensatory technologies' in the area of defense;
the EU and NATO did not take a step towards enabling Armenia's
national security. It was kept in mind that such steps could lead to a
confrontation with Russia, and they preferred to bypass Armenia
delicately but the counter-partner was too large to be able to bypass
during the first attempt.
In this situation one can already announce about a plural fact: over
the past year up to the last few weeks European politicians,
functionaries and experts repetitively and cautiously asked, `To what
extent is the Armenian government determined to sign the `Agreement'?'
These and other delicate details are evidence that the West was not
confident that the project would succeed because Russia was expected
to react.
However, what matters more was not Russia's expected `breakthrough'
but Armenia's uncertainty over the level of tolerance of risks. One
way or another, further development of relations between Armenia and
the Western community, if it ever takes place, will incorporate
elements of security. Therefore, it is time to cooperate with NATO
first, not with the European Union, or in a different format...
Who will be dealing with iteration on Armenia's path towards the West?
Is the Armenian government considered suitable for cooperation and
further dialogue or is it already used material?
The Western community has a rule to block and ignore not states and
nations but concrete politicians or political groups, as well as their
functionaries. If the current government makes up its mind to thwart
Moscow's decision on Armenia's membership to this absurd, this will be
to its political credit despite November 3 because the West gets an
incredible card in such an attractive game.
This could be predicted because the West needs to resolve the problem
here and now, not in the visible future. At the same time, the
positions of Europe and the U.S. cannot affect sponsors of pro-Russian
politics in Armenia. It may not be related to business and bank
deposits, as well as issuance of visa to them and their service
functionaries. Their names and positions are known well.
However, despite the current intentions of the West, it would be more
desirable to mark time. For the time being, it is hard to understand.
It will take time to sober up from the promises of the Customs Union.
Besides, Moscow simply can't help its endless foolishness and
coarseness, continuing a discussion which seemed to be over. It is
necessary to squeeze everything out of this dreadful situation. The
Russians are doing it themselves.
Igor Muradyan
23:15 21/09/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30939
So, there are obvious signs that the resolution on the
Armenia-Russia-EU `conflict' has been made, the scenario of the
`conflict' will be used 100% and even more.
It would be ingenuous to think that it could have been otherwise,
considering the political ambitions of the European Union and the
established mechanism of having decisions on certain, including
regional issues agreed with the United States.
Expectations that Armenia would be forgotten did not come true, and
this should be acknowledged. Although emotions overwhelmed the
corridors on Schuman Roundabout, decisions are not made by officials
but politicians, and the Western community has understood that it has
received an interesting trump card in the games with Russia and
Eastern Europe.
In Armenia they will most probably focus on different objectives
relating not only to Russia but also Turkey. In addition, it should be
noted that these scenarios had been worked out earlier and should have
been implemented after the signing of the Agreement on November 29.
Hence, there are no new scenarios, there are only new schedules and
order of actions.
Apart from pragmatic motives relating to the geopolitical blockade of
Armenia, not just pressure, there are issues relating to the image and
authority of the European Union. It is possible that in Armenia hardly
anyone noticed but Russia has declared a political war to the European
Union, and one can remember a similar situation after the war in
Yugoslavia.
Besides, the West must demonstrate to Ukraine that it can assert its
position and do it quite rapidly and quite convincingly. Armenia is
not Ukraine, and demonstration of continuity of the policy does not
require big funds.
In the meantime, on `September 3' the understanding of the reality in
the South Caucasus played a big role. Over the years of talks with the
European Union Armenia never dared to take initiatives for
consideration of `compensatory technologies' in the area of defense;
the EU and NATO did not take a step towards enabling Armenia's
national security. It was kept in mind that such steps could lead to a
confrontation with Russia, and they preferred to bypass Armenia
delicately but the counter-partner was too large to be able to bypass
during the first attempt.
In this situation one can already announce about a plural fact: over
the past year up to the last few weeks European politicians,
functionaries and experts repetitively and cautiously asked, `To what
extent is the Armenian government determined to sign the `Agreement'?'
These and other delicate details are evidence that the West was not
confident that the project would succeed because Russia was expected
to react.
However, what matters more was not Russia's expected `breakthrough'
but Armenia's uncertainty over the level of tolerance of risks. One
way or another, further development of relations between Armenia and
the Western community, if it ever takes place, will incorporate
elements of security. Therefore, it is time to cooperate with NATO
first, not with the European Union, or in a different format...
Who will be dealing with iteration on Armenia's path towards the West?
Is the Armenian government considered suitable for cooperation and
further dialogue or is it already used material?
The Western community has a rule to block and ignore not states and
nations but concrete politicians or political groups, as well as their
functionaries. If the current government makes up its mind to thwart
Moscow's decision on Armenia's membership to this absurd, this will be
to its political credit despite November 3 because the West gets an
incredible card in such an attractive game.
This could be predicted because the West needs to resolve the problem
here and now, not in the visible future. At the same time, the
positions of Europe and the U.S. cannot affect sponsors of pro-Russian
politics in Armenia. It may not be related to business and bank
deposits, as well as issuance of visa to them and their service
functionaries. Their names and positions are known well.
However, despite the current intentions of the West, it would be more
desirable to mark time. For the time being, it is hard to understand.
It will take time to sober up from the promises of the Customs Union.
Besides, Moscow simply can't help its endless foolishness and
coarseness, continuing a discussion which seemed to be over. It is
necessary to squeeze everything out of this dreadful situation. The
Russians are doing it themselves.
Igor Muradyan
23:15 21/09/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30939