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Armenia And Azerbaijan: A Season Of Risks

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  • Armenia And Azerbaijan: A Season Of Risks

    ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN: A SEASON OF RISKS

    International Crisis Group
    Sept 26 2013

    Baku/Yerevan/Tbilisi/Brussels | 26 Sep 2013

    Stronger international engagement is needed to help prevent the deadly
    conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan from escalating gravely at
    a time of internal political tensions in both.

    In its latest briefing, Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks, the
    International Crisis Group examines possible scenarios for a conflict
    that could explode at any time. Since peace talks broke down in 2011
    over Nagorno-Karabakh - the Azerbaijan enclave seized and occupied by
    Armenian forces in the fighting that accompanied the break-up of the
    Soviet Union - arms purchases and war rhetoric have gained momentum on
    both sides. In this tense situation, exacerbated by domestic political
    competition, the greatest danger is an accidental war.

    The briefing's major findings are:

    ~USince 2011, both sides have vastly augmented their military budgets
    and developed detailed war contingency plans. There is a real risk
    that miscalculations, brinkmanship or the increasingly frequent
    skirmishes in geographically widespread front-line areas could lead
    to an outbreak of full-scale fighting, pulling in some or all of the
    regional powers: Russia, Turkey and Iran.

    ~UThe coming months pose special challenges, as both countries deal
    with internal political tensions. In Armenia, opposition groups are
    planning an autumn of protest. In Azerbaijan, the government fears
    disorder after the presidential elections - virtually certain to be
    won by the authoritarian incumbent - in October. Both sides' domestic
    pressures could limit their efforts to re-invigorate the mediation
    process or enter direct negotiations.

    ~UVigilance from international actors, especially the mediators
    of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) -
    namely Russia, the U.S. and France, the co-chairs of its "Minsk Group"
    - as well as the EU, is needed to prevent an escalation. They should
    highlight the risks of miscalculation and the huge costs for both sides
    of any return to open hostilities. Russia, as an influential player
    in this conflict, should work more decisively towards an agreement
    and cease supplying arms to both sides.

    ~UA crisis hotline should be re-established between Yerevan and Baku
    to lessen chances of a military escalation.

    "Unrest at home might tempt leaders to deflect attention by raising
    military tensions or to embark on risky attempts to capitalise on
    their adversary's troubles", says Lawrence Scott Sheets, Crisis
    Group's South Caucasus Project Director. "Both sides are given to
    provocative gestures".

    "The immediate effort required of mediators and other supporters
    of a peace process is modest, yet urgent", says Paul Quinn-Judge,
    Crisis Group's Europe and Central Asia Program Director. "They need to
    start talking about the risks of Baku's and Yerevan's 'in-your-face'
    approach. Then, both countries need to be brought back to the table
    before someone decides the time has come to use their expensive
    new weapons".

    http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2013/europe/armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspx

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