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ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN: A SEASON OF RISKS
International Crisis Group
Sept 26 2013
Baku/Yerevan/Tbilisi/Brussels | 26 Sep 2013
Stronger international engagement is needed to help prevent the deadly
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan from escalating gravely at
a time of internal political tensions in both.
In its latest briefing, Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks, the
International Crisis Group examines possible scenarios for a conflict
that could explode at any time. Since peace talks broke down in 2011
over Nagorno-Karabakh - the Azerbaijan enclave seized and occupied by
Armenian forces in the fighting that accompanied the break-up of the
Soviet Union - arms purchases and war rhetoric have gained momentum on
both sides. In this tense situation, exacerbated by domestic political
competition, the greatest danger is an accidental war.
The briefing's major findings are:
~USince 2011, both sides have vastly augmented their military budgets
and developed detailed war contingency plans. There is a real risk
that miscalculations, brinkmanship or the increasingly frequent
skirmishes in geographically widespread front-line areas could lead
to an outbreak of full-scale fighting, pulling in some or all of the
regional powers: Russia, Turkey and Iran.
~UThe coming months pose special challenges, as both countries deal
with internal political tensions. In Armenia, opposition groups are
planning an autumn of protest. In Azerbaijan, the government fears
disorder after the presidential elections - virtually certain to be
won by the authoritarian incumbent - in October. Both sides' domestic
pressures could limit their efforts to re-invigorate the mediation
process or enter direct negotiations.
~UVigilance from international actors, especially the mediators
of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) -
namely Russia, the U.S. and France, the co-chairs of its "Minsk Group"
- as well as the EU, is needed to prevent an escalation. They should
highlight the risks of miscalculation and the huge costs for both sides
of any return to open hostilities. Russia, as an influential player
in this conflict, should work more decisively towards an agreement
and cease supplying arms to both sides.
~UA crisis hotline should be re-established between Yerevan and Baku
to lessen chances of a military escalation.
"Unrest at home might tempt leaders to deflect attention by raising
military tensions or to embark on risky attempts to capitalise on
their adversary's troubles", says Lawrence Scott Sheets, Crisis
Group's South Caucasus Project Director. "Both sides are given to
provocative gestures".
"The immediate effort required of mediators and other supporters
of a peace process is modest, yet urgent", says Paul Quinn-Judge,
Crisis Group's Europe and Central Asia Program Director. "They need to
start talking about the risks of Baku's and Yerevan's 'in-your-face'
approach. Then, both countries need to be brought back to the table
before someone decides the time has come to use their expensive
new weapons".
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2013/europe/armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspx
International Crisis Group
Sept 26 2013
Baku/Yerevan/Tbilisi/Brussels | 26 Sep 2013
Stronger international engagement is needed to help prevent the deadly
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan from escalating gravely at
a time of internal political tensions in both.
In its latest briefing, Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks, the
International Crisis Group examines possible scenarios for a conflict
that could explode at any time. Since peace talks broke down in 2011
over Nagorno-Karabakh - the Azerbaijan enclave seized and occupied by
Armenian forces in the fighting that accompanied the break-up of the
Soviet Union - arms purchases and war rhetoric have gained momentum on
both sides. In this tense situation, exacerbated by domestic political
competition, the greatest danger is an accidental war.
The briefing's major findings are:
~USince 2011, both sides have vastly augmented their military budgets
and developed detailed war contingency plans. There is a real risk
that miscalculations, brinkmanship or the increasingly frequent
skirmishes in geographically widespread front-line areas could lead
to an outbreak of full-scale fighting, pulling in some or all of the
regional powers: Russia, Turkey and Iran.
~UThe coming months pose special challenges, as both countries deal
with internal political tensions. In Armenia, opposition groups are
planning an autumn of protest. In Azerbaijan, the government fears
disorder after the presidential elections - virtually certain to be
won by the authoritarian incumbent - in October. Both sides' domestic
pressures could limit their efforts to re-invigorate the mediation
process or enter direct negotiations.
~UVigilance from international actors, especially the mediators
of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) -
namely Russia, the U.S. and France, the co-chairs of its "Minsk Group"
- as well as the EU, is needed to prevent an escalation. They should
highlight the risks of miscalculation and the huge costs for both sides
of any return to open hostilities. Russia, as an influential player
in this conflict, should work more decisively towards an agreement
and cease supplying arms to both sides.
~UA crisis hotline should be re-established between Yerevan and Baku
to lessen chances of a military escalation.
"Unrest at home might tempt leaders to deflect attention by raising
military tensions or to embark on risky attempts to capitalise on
their adversary's troubles", says Lawrence Scott Sheets, Crisis
Group's South Caucasus Project Director. "Both sides are given to
provocative gestures".
"The immediate effort required of mediators and other supporters
of a peace process is modest, yet urgent", says Paul Quinn-Judge,
Crisis Group's Europe and Central Asia Program Director. "They need to
start talking about the risks of Baku's and Yerevan's 'in-your-face'
approach. Then, both countries need to be brought back to the table
before someone decides the time has come to use their expensive
new weapons".
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2013/europe/armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspx