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  • Between Moscow And Brussels: Armenia's Foreign Policy Dilemma Ita En

    BETWEEN MOSCOW AND BRUSSELS: ARMENIA'S FOREIGN POLICY DILEMMA ITA ENG

    Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso, Italy
    Sept 26 2013

    Mikayel Zolyan | Yerevan
    26 September 2013

    A Customs Union with Russia, Belorus and Kazakhstan turns Yerevan away
    from signing an Association Agreement with Brussels. While the Armenian
    public opinion is divided, civil society activists have been intimdated

    On September 21 Armenia celebrated its 22nd day of independence. Along
    with celebrations in various parts of the Armenian capital, a very
    different kind of demonstration took place in central Yerevan. Civic
    activists had called a march to protest what they saw as a threat to
    Armenian sovereignity. This was one of the several protests that took
    place after Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan announced in Moscow on
    September 3 that Armenia would be joining Customs Union with Russia,
    Belorus and Kazakhstan.

    Serzh Sargsyan's announcement came as a surprise not only to most
    Armenians but also to EU's foreign policy representatives. Several
    years' negotiations between Armenia and EU on signing Association
    agreement had been concluded and Armenia was expected to pre-sign the
    agreement in November. The most essential element of the Association
    agreement is the establishment of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
    Area (DCFTA), which is incompatible with Armenia's membership in the
    Customs Union, as EU officials had warned on several occasions.

    Armenian officials seemed to be aware of that. Thus, in a TV interview
    given this spring, Sargsyan unequivocally ruled out the perspective
    of Armenia's participation in the Customs Union. However, after the
    Moscow statement, Armenian officials were trying to convince the EU
    to sign the Association agreement without the trade provisions. This,
    however, would make the Association agreement an almost symbolic
    gesture, devoid of any practical significance. Therefore, the EU
    officials sent out a clear signal that they would not consider this
    option. The Moscow statement also led to a complete reversal in the
    rhetoric of the Armenian government: officials are praising the Customs
    Union and declaring that Armenia has always had the long-term goal of
    joining it and it was simply waiting for approval from Customs Union
    members. However, European officials also seem to see the Russian
    shadow behind the abrupt U-turn in Armenia's policies.

    Il commissario UE SÌ~Ltefan FuÌ~Hle con il ministro degli Esteri
    Nalbandyan (PanARMENIAN Photo_ Tigran Mehrabyan) A struggle for
    influence Armenia seems to be caught up in the struggle for influence
    between EU and Russia. The field of struggle is the region covered
    by the EU's Â"Eastern PartnershipÂ" program (EaP): Ukraine, Moldova,
    Belorus, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan. The big prize in this struggle
    is Ukraine. Russia, which sees Eastern Partnership as a part of
    EU's expansive strategy, has been trying to persuade Ukraine to join
    the Customs Union, rather than sign the Association agreement. Some
    commentators believe that the statement regarding Armenia's inclusion
    into the Customs Union, was supposed to send a signal to other EaP
    states, most of all Ukraine. If it was, however, it backfired, as not
    only Ukraine, but also Moldova and Georgia announced that they would
    definitely continue the process of Association Agreement with EU,
    including the DCFTA.

    In any case, Armenian government's credibility suffered a serious blow,
    first of all in the eyes of the European partners. EU enlargement
    commissioner Å tefan Fule, who recently visited Yerevan, lamented the
    lack of trust and confidence in relations with Armenian government
    . Russian government, however, also seems to be disappointed by what
    it sees as Armenia's attempts to forge relations with EU behind its
    back. Many commentators pointed out, that contrary to expectations,
    no high-ranking Russian officials, were present at the inauguration of
    the newly-built enormous Armenian cathedral in Moscow on September 17,
    which was attended by Armenia's president.

    Internal reactions: Armenians divided The reaction in Armenia itself
    has been mixed. Political forces, wary of spoiling relations with
    Russia, which could damage their chances of coming to power one day,
    tried to refrain from criticizing openly the Customs Union. Certain
    opposition forces, like the Armenian National Congress, however,
    criticized Sargsyan's government for its way of handling the issue,
    which has led to a loss of credibility both with Europeans and
    Russians. The decision to advance integration with Russia may also be
    popular with many Armenians, especially those of middle or senior age,
    who, having grown up in the USSR, have a strong emotional connection to
    Russia. Besides, a smear campaign, orchestrated by a previously unknown
    organization called "Armenian Parents' Committee", which aimed at
    discrediting European values by equating them with sexual promiscuity,
    might have further damaged the image of EU in the eyes of many ordinary
    Armenians, who are known to be conservative on social issues.

    Civil society organizations, however, namely those that have been
    involved in EU-backed democratization efforts, have been more vocal in
    their criticism of the government's conduct. The way the decision was
    taken, without any public discussion or consultations, under obvious
    foreign pressure, is what most alarmed its critics, who fear that,
    as a result of Sargsyan's policies, Armenia is losing the capacity to
    act as an independent player in international affairs. Various groups
    of civic activists, using Facebook, organized protests against the
    president's decision. Two of these activists, Haykak Arshamyan and
    Suren Saghatelyan, were severely beaten after one of these protests
    on September 5. "A gang of six or seven people, all well-built, in
    black T-shirts, ambushed us near my home, in the darkness" says Haykak
    Arshamyan. The attack followed a series of similar attacks on other
    civic activists, who had taken part in other protests, though these
    protests were related to local issues rather than foreign policy. The
    police has failed to find the attackers so far. Arshamyan believes the
    aim of the attacks was to intimidate activists and prevent them from
    protesting. "This tactic may work with some people", he says, "but
    it won't work with others: activists will only become more determined".

    The protests, as well as attacks against activists that follow them,
    may be a sign of a coming instability. While the majority of Armenians
    are largely unaware of the intricacies of the European integration or
    Customs Union, they are immediately affected by social issues. The rise
    in the prices of Russian gas this spring has led to a chain reaction,
    as prices for various products and services started growing.

    Attempts of Yerevan city authorities to raise the prices for public
    transportation triggered a civil disobedience campaign, when mostly
    young activists refused to pay the new fee and staged sporadic
    protests. City authorities eventually backed down and re-introduced
    the old fee, but they are planning to raise the prices in autumn.

    Armenian universities have decided to raise their fees as well, which
    also promises headaches to the authorities, as student activists are
    vowing to protest this decision. Veterans of the war in Karabakh,
    unhappy with the size of their pensions, are also protesting. All
    this means that Armenia may be heading into a rough ride this autumn,
    and that makes Armenian government extremely weak, given the intensity
    of the pressures coming both from inside and outside of the country.

    http://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Regions-and-countries/Armenia/Between-Moscow-and-Brussels-Armenia-s-foreign-policy-dilemma-142290


    From: Baghdasarian
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