Tweet
BETWEEN MOSCOW AND BRUSSELS: ARMENIA'S FOREIGN POLICY DILEMMA ITA ENG
Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso, Italy
Sept 26 2013
Mikayel Zolyan | Yerevan
26 September 2013
A Customs Union with Russia, Belorus and Kazakhstan turns Yerevan away
from signing an Association Agreement with Brussels. While the Armenian
public opinion is divided, civil society activists have been intimdated
On September 21 Armenia celebrated its 22nd day of independence. Along
with celebrations in various parts of the Armenian capital, a very
different kind of demonstration took place in central Yerevan. Civic
activists had called a march to protest what they saw as a threat to
Armenian sovereignity. This was one of the several protests that took
place after Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan announced in Moscow on
September 3 that Armenia would be joining Customs Union with Russia,
Belorus and Kazakhstan.
Serzh Sargsyan's announcement came as a surprise not only to most
Armenians but also to EU's foreign policy representatives. Several
years' negotiations between Armenia and EU on signing Association
agreement had been concluded and Armenia was expected to pre-sign the
agreement in November. The most essential element of the Association
agreement is the establishment of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Area (DCFTA), which is incompatible with Armenia's membership in the
Customs Union, as EU officials had warned on several occasions.
Armenian officials seemed to be aware of that. Thus, in a TV interview
given this spring, Sargsyan unequivocally ruled out the perspective
of Armenia's participation in the Customs Union. However, after the
Moscow statement, Armenian officials were trying to convince the EU
to sign the Association agreement without the trade provisions. This,
however, would make the Association agreement an almost symbolic
gesture, devoid of any practical significance. Therefore, the EU
officials sent out a clear signal that they would not consider this
option. The Moscow statement also led to a complete reversal in the
rhetoric of the Armenian government: officials are praising the Customs
Union and declaring that Armenia has always had the long-term goal of
joining it and it was simply waiting for approval from Customs Union
members. However, European officials also seem to see the Russian
shadow behind the abrupt U-turn in Armenia's policies.
Il commissario UE SÌ~Ltefan FuÌ~Hle con il ministro degli Esteri
Nalbandyan (PanARMENIAN Photo_ Tigran Mehrabyan) A struggle for
influence Armenia seems to be caught up in the struggle for influence
between EU and Russia. The field of struggle is the region covered
by the EU's Â"Eastern PartnershipÂ" program (EaP): Ukraine, Moldova,
Belorus, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan. The big prize in this struggle
is Ukraine. Russia, which sees Eastern Partnership as a part of
EU's expansive strategy, has been trying to persuade Ukraine to join
the Customs Union, rather than sign the Association agreement. Some
commentators believe that the statement regarding Armenia's inclusion
into the Customs Union, was supposed to send a signal to other EaP
states, most of all Ukraine. If it was, however, it backfired, as not
only Ukraine, but also Moldova and Georgia announced that they would
definitely continue the process of Association Agreement with EU,
including the DCFTA.
In any case, Armenian government's credibility suffered a serious blow,
first of all in the eyes of the European partners. EU enlargement
commissioner Å tefan Fule, who recently visited Yerevan, lamented the
lack of trust and confidence in relations with Armenian government
. Russian government, however, also seems to be disappointed by what
it sees as Armenia's attempts to forge relations with EU behind its
back. Many commentators pointed out, that contrary to expectations,
no high-ranking Russian officials, were present at the inauguration of
the newly-built enormous Armenian cathedral in Moscow on September 17,
which was attended by Armenia's president.
Internal reactions: Armenians divided The reaction in Armenia itself
has been mixed. Political forces, wary of spoiling relations with
Russia, which could damage their chances of coming to power one day,
tried to refrain from criticizing openly the Customs Union. Certain
opposition forces, like the Armenian National Congress, however,
criticized Sargsyan's government for its way of handling the issue,
which has led to a loss of credibility both with Europeans and
Russians. The decision to advance integration with Russia may also be
popular with many Armenians, especially those of middle or senior age,
who, having grown up in the USSR, have a strong emotional connection to
Russia. Besides, a smear campaign, orchestrated by a previously unknown
organization called "Armenian Parents' Committee", which aimed at
discrediting European values by equating them with sexual promiscuity,
might have further damaged the image of EU in the eyes of many ordinary
Armenians, who are known to be conservative on social issues.
Civil society organizations, however, namely those that have been
involved in EU-backed democratization efforts, have been more vocal in
their criticism of the government's conduct. The way the decision was
taken, without any public discussion or consultations, under obvious
foreign pressure, is what most alarmed its critics, who fear that,
as a result of Sargsyan's policies, Armenia is losing the capacity to
act as an independent player in international affairs. Various groups
of civic activists, using Facebook, organized protests against the
president's decision. Two of these activists, Haykak Arshamyan and
Suren Saghatelyan, were severely beaten after one of these protests
on September 5. "A gang of six or seven people, all well-built, in
black T-shirts, ambushed us near my home, in the darkness" says Haykak
Arshamyan. The attack followed a series of similar attacks on other
civic activists, who had taken part in other protests, though these
protests were related to local issues rather than foreign policy. The
police has failed to find the attackers so far. Arshamyan believes the
aim of the attacks was to intimidate activists and prevent them from
protesting. "This tactic may work with some people", he says, "but
it won't work with others: activists will only become more determined".
The protests, as well as attacks against activists that follow them,
may be a sign of a coming instability. While the majority of Armenians
are largely unaware of the intricacies of the European integration or
Customs Union, they are immediately affected by social issues. The rise
in the prices of Russian gas this spring has led to a chain reaction,
as prices for various products and services started growing.
Attempts of Yerevan city authorities to raise the prices for public
transportation triggered a civil disobedience campaign, when mostly
young activists refused to pay the new fee and staged sporadic
protests. City authorities eventually backed down and re-introduced
the old fee, but they are planning to raise the prices in autumn.
Armenian universities have decided to raise their fees as well, which
also promises headaches to the authorities, as student activists are
vowing to protest this decision. Veterans of the war in Karabakh,
unhappy with the size of their pensions, are also protesting. All
this means that Armenia may be heading into a rough ride this autumn,
and that makes Armenian government extremely weak, given the intensity
of the pressures coming both from inside and outside of the country.
http://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Regions-and-countries/Armenia/Between-Moscow-and-Brussels-Armenia-s-foreign-policy-dilemma-142290
From: Baghdasarian
Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso, Italy
Sept 26 2013
Mikayel Zolyan | Yerevan
26 September 2013
A Customs Union with Russia, Belorus and Kazakhstan turns Yerevan away
from signing an Association Agreement with Brussels. While the Armenian
public opinion is divided, civil society activists have been intimdated
On September 21 Armenia celebrated its 22nd day of independence. Along
with celebrations in various parts of the Armenian capital, a very
different kind of demonstration took place in central Yerevan. Civic
activists had called a march to protest what they saw as a threat to
Armenian sovereignity. This was one of the several protests that took
place after Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan announced in Moscow on
September 3 that Armenia would be joining Customs Union with Russia,
Belorus and Kazakhstan.
Serzh Sargsyan's announcement came as a surprise not only to most
Armenians but also to EU's foreign policy representatives. Several
years' negotiations between Armenia and EU on signing Association
agreement had been concluded and Armenia was expected to pre-sign the
agreement in November. The most essential element of the Association
agreement is the establishment of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Area (DCFTA), which is incompatible with Armenia's membership in the
Customs Union, as EU officials had warned on several occasions.
Armenian officials seemed to be aware of that. Thus, in a TV interview
given this spring, Sargsyan unequivocally ruled out the perspective
of Armenia's participation in the Customs Union. However, after the
Moscow statement, Armenian officials were trying to convince the EU
to sign the Association agreement without the trade provisions. This,
however, would make the Association agreement an almost symbolic
gesture, devoid of any practical significance. Therefore, the EU
officials sent out a clear signal that they would not consider this
option. The Moscow statement also led to a complete reversal in the
rhetoric of the Armenian government: officials are praising the Customs
Union and declaring that Armenia has always had the long-term goal of
joining it and it was simply waiting for approval from Customs Union
members. However, European officials also seem to see the Russian
shadow behind the abrupt U-turn in Armenia's policies.
Il commissario UE SÌ~Ltefan FuÌ~Hle con il ministro degli Esteri
Nalbandyan (PanARMENIAN Photo_ Tigran Mehrabyan) A struggle for
influence Armenia seems to be caught up in the struggle for influence
between EU and Russia. The field of struggle is the region covered
by the EU's Â"Eastern PartnershipÂ" program (EaP): Ukraine, Moldova,
Belorus, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan. The big prize in this struggle
is Ukraine. Russia, which sees Eastern Partnership as a part of
EU's expansive strategy, has been trying to persuade Ukraine to join
the Customs Union, rather than sign the Association agreement. Some
commentators believe that the statement regarding Armenia's inclusion
into the Customs Union, was supposed to send a signal to other EaP
states, most of all Ukraine. If it was, however, it backfired, as not
only Ukraine, but also Moldova and Georgia announced that they would
definitely continue the process of Association Agreement with EU,
including the DCFTA.
In any case, Armenian government's credibility suffered a serious blow,
first of all in the eyes of the European partners. EU enlargement
commissioner Å tefan Fule, who recently visited Yerevan, lamented the
lack of trust and confidence in relations with Armenian government
. Russian government, however, also seems to be disappointed by what
it sees as Armenia's attempts to forge relations with EU behind its
back. Many commentators pointed out, that contrary to expectations,
no high-ranking Russian officials, were present at the inauguration of
the newly-built enormous Armenian cathedral in Moscow on September 17,
which was attended by Armenia's president.
Internal reactions: Armenians divided The reaction in Armenia itself
has been mixed. Political forces, wary of spoiling relations with
Russia, which could damage their chances of coming to power one day,
tried to refrain from criticizing openly the Customs Union. Certain
opposition forces, like the Armenian National Congress, however,
criticized Sargsyan's government for its way of handling the issue,
which has led to a loss of credibility both with Europeans and
Russians. The decision to advance integration with Russia may also be
popular with many Armenians, especially those of middle or senior age,
who, having grown up in the USSR, have a strong emotional connection to
Russia. Besides, a smear campaign, orchestrated by a previously unknown
organization called "Armenian Parents' Committee", which aimed at
discrediting European values by equating them with sexual promiscuity,
might have further damaged the image of EU in the eyes of many ordinary
Armenians, who are known to be conservative on social issues.
Civil society organizations, however, namely those that have been
involved in EU-backed democratization efforts, have been more vocal in
their criticism of the government's conduct. The way the decision was
taken, without any public discussion or consultations, under obvious
foreign pressure, is what most alarmed its critics, who fear that,
as a result of Sargsyan's policies, Armenia is losing the capacity to
act as an independent player in international affairs. Various groups
of civic activists, using Facebook, organized protests against the
president's decision. Two of these activists, Haykak Arshamyan and
Suren Saghatelyan, were severely beaten after one of these protests
on September 5. "A gang of six or seven people, all well-built, in
black T-shirts, ambushed us near my home, in the darkness" says Haykak
Arshamyan. The attack followed a series of similar attacks on other
civic activists, who had taken part in other protests, though these
protests were related to local issues rather than foreign policy. The
police has failed to find the attackers so far. Arshamyan believes the
aim of the attacks was to intimidate activists and prevent them from
protesting. "This tactic may work with some people", he says, "but
it won't work with others: activists will only become more determined".
The protests, as well as attacks against activists that follow them,
may be a sign of a coming instability. While the majority of Armenians
are largely unaware of the intricacies of the European integration or
Customs Union, they are immediately affected by social issues. The rise
in the prices of Russian gas this spring has led to a chain reaction,
as prices for various products and services started growing.
Attempts of Yerevan city authorities to raise the prices for public
transportation triggered a civil disobedience campaign, when mostly
young activists refused to pay the new fee and staged sporadic
protests. City authorities eventually backed down and re-introduced
the old fee, but they are planning to raise the prices in autumn.
Armenian universities have decided to raise their fees as well, which
also promises headaches to the authorities, as student activists are
vowing to protest this decision. Veterans of the war in Karabakh,
unhappy with the size of their pensions, are also protesting. All
this means that Armenia may be heading into a rough ride this autumn,
and that makes Armenian government extremely weak, given the intensity
of the pressures coming both from inside and outside of the country.
http://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Regions-and-countries/Armenia/Between-Moscow-and-Brussels-Armenia-s-foreign-policy-dilemma-142290
From: Baghdasarian