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IS ARMENIA TURNING EAST?
ISN - International Relations & Security Network, Zurich
Sept 26 2013
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan at the European People's Party
in Yerevan.
By Mikayel Zolyan for Foreign Policy Centre (FPC)
When on September 3rd 2013 Serzh Sargsyan, after meeting Russian
president Vladimir Putin in Moscow, announced that Armenia has asked to
join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, this came
as a surprise. It came as a surprise for both for Armenian public,
and for Armenia's partners in the West, most of all for EU officials
responsible for the block's eastern policy. The reason: Armenia
had already completed the negotiations regarding the Association
Agreement with EU (including DCFTA) and was supposed to pre-sign the
agreement in November. It has been made clear to Armenian authorities
that membership in the Customs Union would be incompatible with the
association process and especially with the DCFTA provisions.
Armenian authorities seemed to understand that point and continued to
claim their willingness to advance relations with Europe. As for the
Customs Union, Armenian officials of various levels repeated numerous
times that the country had no intention of joining, and moreover,
that this was impossible given absence of a common border between
Armenia and the countries of the Customs Union.
Thus, in spring 2012 Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan gave a
well-publicized interview to Russian daily 'Kommersant', in which he
stated unequivocally that Armenia is not interested in the Customs
Union since it does not have a common border with the members of the
block, though he conceded that Armenia might be interested in some
kind of a special partnership with that organization. This March in
a press conference televised by all major channels President Serzh
Sargsyan said that no one was expecting Armenia in the Customs Union
and dismissed any talk of the Russian pressure as unfounded. Finally,
only several days before Sargsyan's visit to Moscow, in an interview
to the ArmNews channel the Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister ruled
out Armenia's joining the Customs Union, adding that there is no
precedent of a country joining a customs union with countries that do
not share a common border. Moreover, many pro-government media outlets
and commentators had been engaged during recent months in a media
campaign praising Armenia's rapprochement with the European Union.
However, all these statements seem to have been forgotten as after
Sargsyan's return from Moscow as senior government figures started to
praise Armenia's potential benefits from joining the Customs Union. To
make matters worse, some Armenian government figures attempted to
spin Sargsyan's announcement by saying that Armenia will continue to
aim for the Association agreement, thus prompting unequivocal denial
from the EU side. After a series of statements of varying degrees of
clarity from several EU sources, came unusually direct statements,
which left little room for doubt. Thus, in apparent response to
Armenian officials' statements, Sweden's Foreign Minister Carl Bildt
said on September 9th that European Union has no plans to finalize
an Association Agreement with Armenia at an upcoming EU summit in
Lithuania, adding that 'we work with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia'.
EU officials also talked of the Russian pressure on Armenian
authorities. Many commentators tend to believe that the security
argument was used by Russia, who is Armenia's main security partner
and the leading force in the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO), of which Armenia is a member. Armenia is locked in a
conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, so it is
particularly vulnerable to such pressures. However, given the internal
political situation in Armenia, there might have been other leverages,
which could have been used by Russia to influence Armenian government.
The current government is still struggling with the lack of democratic
legitimacy, which came as a result of the long history of disputed
elections and heavy-handed treatment of protesters. Particularly,
the events of March 1st2008, when 10 people were killed as the
government cracked down on post-election protests in Yerevan, are
still haunting Armenia's internal politics. The latest presidential
election in 2013 did not help to mitigate the lack of legitimacy,
and probably even made the matters worse: though Serzh Sargsyan was
announced the winner, opposition leader Raffi Hovannisian refused
to accept the official results, and started a campaign of protests,
which however were smaller in scale than those in 2008 and gradually
died out after Sargsyan's inauguration.
Sargsyan's announcement probably also came as a surprise for Armenian
civil society. Numerous Armenian NGOs have been involved in various
projects connected with the European integration and the reforms that
were expected within its framework. The announcement made in Moscow
became a cause for worry since Armenian government commitment to the
Association Agreement was perceived as a certain guarantee that the
authoritarian tendencies, which already exist in the country would be
kept in check. Now, some NGO figures argue, the Armenian government
will be judged against the standards that exist in the countries of the
Customs Union (Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) which can be described
as anything but democratic. In the days preceding the announcement
and immediately after it several attacks took place, aimed at civic
activists, who had participated in anti-government protests. These
attacks, carried out by unidentified men, still remain unsolved and
the victims claim that state authorities are to blame.
Whether it was a coincidence or not, many in the civil society
perceived these attacks as a sign that the Armenian government's
authoritarian tendencies are getting stronger within the new
geopolitical context.
Against this background, fears that by joining the Customs Union
may mean creation of "a new USSR" and will lead to ceding a part
of Armenia's sovereignty became quite visible in Armenia. Some
even feared that Armenia, which had acquired independence from
Russia only around 22 years ago, might be reduced to a status of a
client-state of Russia. Over a hundred activists protested Sargsyan's
announcement September 4th in front of the President's residence and
on September 5th outside of the ruling party headquarters. The scale
of the protests however remains relatively small, mostly confined to
politically active youth and civil society representatives. As for the
main political forces, they seem to be reluctant to spoil relations
with Russian authorities by opposing the union too harshly. Thus
the opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC/HAK) criticized the
government for squandering Armenia's international credibility as a
result of its U-turn, but refrained from commenting on whether Customs
Union membership would beneficial for Armenia or not. Moreover, ANC
leader Ter-Petrosyan warned his party members against 'resorting to
anti-Russianism' in the criticism of the government. This careful
stance is shared by most other political forces represented in the
parliament. As for the larger public, the 'Russian' option still
remains quite popular among many Armenians, especially among the
middle aged and older citizens, who tend to have a nostalgia for the
Soviet times, and who do not seem to understand the intricacies of
European integration.
Mikayel Zolyan is historian and political analyst from Yerevan
(Armenia). Currently, he teaches at several universities in Yerevan
and works at Yerevan Press Club NGO in Yerevan.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=169491
ISN - International Relations & Security Network, Zurich
Sept 26 2013
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan at the European People's Party
in Yerevan.
By Mikayel Zolyan for Foreign Policy Centre (FPC)
When on September 3rd 2013 Serzh Sargsyan, after meeting Russian
president Vladimir Putin in Moscow, announced that Armenia has asked to
join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, this came
as a surprise. It came as a surprise for both for Armenian public,
and for Armenia's partners in the West, most of all for EU officials
responsible for the block's eastern policy. The reason: Armenia
had already completed the negotiations regarding the Association
Agreement with EU (including DCFTA) and was supposed to pre-sign the
agreement in November. It has been made clear to Armenian authorities
that membership in the Customs Union would be incompatible with the
association process and especially with the DCFTA provisions.
Armenian authorities seemed to understand that point and continued to
claim their willingness to advance relations with Europe. As for the
Customs Union, Armenian officials of various levels repeated numerous
times that the country had no intention of joining, and moreover,
that this was impossible given absence of a common border between
Armenia and the countries of the Customs Union.
Thus, in spring 2012 Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan gave a
well-publicized interview to Russian daily 'Kommersant', in which he
stated unequivocally that Armenia is not interested in the Customs
Union since it does not have a common border with the members of the
block, though he conceded that Armenia might be interested in some
kind of a special partnership with that organization. This March in
a press conference televised by all major channels President Serzh
Sargsyan said that no one was expecting Armenia in the Customs Union
and dismissed any talk of the Russian pressure as unfounded. Finally,
only several days before Sargsyan's visit to Moscow, in an interview
to the ArmNews channel the Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister ruled
out Armenia's joining the Customs Union, adding that there is no
precedent of a country joining a customs union with countries that do
not share a common border. Moreover, many pro-government media outlets
and commentators had been engaged during recent months in a media
campaign praising Armenia's rapprochement with the European Union.
However, all these statements seem to have been forgotten as after
Sargsyan's return from Moscow as senior government figures started to
praise Armenia's potential benefits from joining the Customs Union. To
make matters worse, some Armenian government figures attempted to
spin Sargsyan's announcement by saying that Armenia will continue to
aim for the Association agreement, thus prompting unequivocal denial
from the EU side. After a series of statements of varying degrees of
clarity from several EU sources, came unusually direct statements,
which left little room for doubt. Thus, in apparent response to
Armenian officials' statements, Sweden's Foreign Minister Carl Bildt
said on September 9th that European Union has no plans to finalize
an Association Agreement with Armenia at an upcoming EU summit in
Lithuania, adding that 'we work with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia'.
EU officials also talked of the Russian pressure on Armenian
authorities. Many commentators tend to believe that the security
argument was used by Russia, who is Armenia's main security partner
and the leading force in the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO), of which Armenia is a member. Armenia is locked in a
conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, so it is
particularly vulnerable to such pressures. However, given the internal
political situation in Armenia, there might have been other leverages,
which could have been used by Russia to influence Armenian government.
The current government is still struggling with the lack of democratic
legitimacy, which came as a result of the long history of disputed
elections and heavy-handed treatment of protesters. Particularly,
the events of March 1st2008, when 10 people were killed as the
government cracked down on post-election protests in Yerevan, are
still haunting Armenia's internal politics. The latest presidential
election in 2013 did not help to mitigate the lack of legitimacy,
and probably even made the matters worse: though Serzh Sargsyan was
announced the winner, opposition leader Raffi Hovannisian refused
to accept the official results, and started a campaign of protests,
which however were smaller in scale than those in 2008 and gradually
died out after Sargsyan's inauguration.
Sargsyan's announcement probably also came as a surprise for Armenian
civil society. Numerous Armenian NGOs have been involved in various
projects connected with the European integration and the reforms that
were expected within its framework. The announcement made in Moscow
became a cause for worry since Armenian government commitment to the
Association Agreement was perceived as a certain guarantee that the
authoritarian tendencies, which already exist in the country would be
kept in check. Now, some NGO figures argue, the Armenian government
will be judged against the standards that exist in the countries of the
Customs Union (Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) which can be described
as anything but democratic. In the days preceding the announcement
and immediately after it several attacks took place, aimed at civic
activists, who had participated in anti-government protests. These
attacks, carried out by unidentified men, still remain unsolved and
the victims claim that state authorities are to blame.
Whether it was a coincidence or not, many in the civil society
perceived these attacks as a sign that the Armenian government's
authoritarian tendencies are getting stronger within the new
geopolitical context.
Against this background, fears that by joining the Customs Union
may mean creation of "a new USSR" and will lead to ceding a part
of Armenia's sovereignty became quite visible in Armenia. Some
even feared that Armenia, which had acquired independence from
Russia only around 22 years ago, might be reduced to a status of a
client-state of Russia. Over a hundred activists protested Sargsyan's
announcement September 4th in front of the President's residence and
on September 5th outside of the ruling party headquarters. The scale
of the protests however remains relatively small, mostly confined to
politically active youth and civil society representatives. As for the
main political forces, they seem to be reluctant to spoil relations
with Russian authorities by opposing the union too harshly. Thus
the opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC/HAK) criticized the
government for squandering Armenia's international credibility as a
result of its U-turn, but refrained from commenting on whether Customs
Union membership would beneficial for Armenia or not. Moreover, ANC
leader Ter-Petrosyan warned his party members against 'resorting to
anti-Russianism' in the criticism of the government. This careful
stance is shared by most other political forces represented in the
parliament. As for the larger public, the 'Russian' option still
remains quite popular among many Armenians, especially among the
middle aged and older citizens, who tend to have a nostalgia for the
Soviet times, and who do not seem to understand the intricacies of
European integration.
Mikayel Zolyan is historian and political analyst from Yerevan
(Armenia). Currently, he teaches at several universities in Yerevan
and works at Yerevan Press Club NGO in Yerevan.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=169491