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Washington Post
September 27, 2013 Friday 8:13 PM EST
Standing up to Russia
by Carl Gershman
Former Soviet states are. Will the U.S. join them?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has had some success recently using
his support for the Assad regime in Syria to strengthen Moscow's
position in the Middle East. But his progress on this front is much
less important than Moscow's growing troubles in its "near abroad," as
it refers to the strategically vital area to its immediate west.
In a replay of the classic East-West rivalry of the Cold War, but with
the United States conspicuously on the sidelines, Russia has used
economic and security threats to draw post-communist countries into
its Eurasian Customs Union and to block the European Union's Eastern
Partnership initiative, which seeks the reform and possible eventual
integration of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and
Ukraine into E.U. structures. Russian pressures have escalated with
the approach of a November summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, at which
several of the countries could sign association or free-trade
agreements with the E.U.
So far only Armenia has buckled under Russian pressure, agreeing to
join the customs union after Moscow, which guarantees Armenia's
security against neighboring Azerbaijan, signed contracts to provide
Azerbaijan with $4 billion worth of military hardware.
Elsewhere, Moscow's bullying has backfired. Russia has banned Moldovan
wine, threatened to cut off gas supplies to that republic and warned
that the people of its Russian-occupied separatist enclave of
Transnistria would resist any agreement with the E.U. But Moldova
remains committed to initialing a free-trade agreement with the
European Union in Vilnius, and it has responded to the threat of an
energy boycott by quickly agreeing with Romania to build a pipeline
linking the two countries.
Georgia, for years the target of Russian boycotts and security
threats, is ruled by Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, who was
rumored to be less anti-Russian than outgoing President Mikheil
Saakashvili. Yet Georgia, too, is about to initial a free-trade
agreement in Vilnius, signaling that European integration is a
national aspiration, not the choice of any particular party.
Ukraine is the biggest prize, and there Russia's bullying has been
particularly counter-productive. In addition to the usual economic
threats and trade sanctions, including a ban on the import of
Ukrainian chocolates, Putin offended Ukrainians during a state visit
in July, saying that they and the Russians were a "single people," and
that the Ukranians had flourished under Soviet rule - totally ignoring
the famine of the early 1930s that Ukrainians call the Holodomor, or
"extermination by hunger."
In an Independence Day speech at the end of August, Ukrainian
President Viktor Yanukovych called association with the European Union
"an important stimulus for forming a modern European state." In short
order, Ukraine's parliament passed reforms required by the E.U.
dealing with such issues as corruption, tariffs and prisons; and the
daughter of Yulia Tymoshenko, the imprisoned former prime minister
whose release the E.U. has insisted on, has said that she hopes her
mother's freedom might be imminent.
The Russian online newspaper Gazeta.ru said recently that "Blackmail
is the worst possible way of advertising economic cooperation." But
Russia's problem is more than tactical. Its post-communist neighbors
prefer the relative dynamism of Europe - with all its debt and growth
problems - to Russia's stagnant economy, and they have no interest in
sharply raising tariffs, which joining the protectionist Eurasian
Customs Union would require.
The process playing out in Europe has attracted little attention in
the U.S. media or from the Obama administration, which has been mostly
preoccupied with the Middle East and its pivot to Asia. But the
opportunities are considerable, and there are important ways
Washington could help.
The United States needs to engage with the governments and with civil
society in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to ensure that the reform
process underway not only promotes greater trade and development but
also produces governments that are less corrupt and more accountable
to their societies. An association agreement with the European Union
should be seen not as an end in itself but as a starting point that
makes possible deeper reforms and more genuine democracy.
Russian democracy also can benefit from this process. Ukraine's choice
to join Europe will accelerate the demise of the ideology of Russian
imperialism that Putin represents. There are signs of the emergence of
a new Russian nationalism: the strong performance by opposition leader
Alexei Navalny in Moscow's recent mayoral election and polls that show
greater opposition to Putin in the Russian provinces, his traditional
support base. This nationalism is concerned not with the restoration
of Russia's imperial greatness, which would be inconceivable if
Ukraine joined Europe, but with fighting corruption and addressing the
severe economic and social problems of the Russian people.
Russians, too, face a choice, and Putin may find himself on the losing
end not just in the near abroad but within Russia itself.
The writer is president of the National Endowment for Democracy.
September 27, 2013 Friday 8:13 PM EST
Standing up to Russia
by Carl Gershman
Former Soviet states are. Will the U.S. join them?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has had some success recently using
his support for the Assad regime in Syria to strengthen Moscow's
position in the Middle East. But his progress on this front is much
less important than Moscow's growing troubles in its "near abroad," as
it refers to the strategically vital area to its immediate west.
In a replay of the classic East-West rivalry of the Cold War, but with
the United States conspicuously on the sidelines, Russia has used
economic and security threats to draw post-communist countries into
its Eurasian Customs Union and to block the European Union's Eastern
Partnership initiative, which seeks the reform and possible eventual
integration of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and
Ukraine into E.U. structures. Russian pressures have escalated with
the approach of a November summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, at which
several of the countries could sign association or free-trade
agreements with the E.U.
So far only Armenia has buckled under Russian pressure, agreeing to
join the customs union after Moscow, which guarantees Armenia's
security against neighboring Azerbaijan, signed contracts to provide
Azerbaijan with $4 billion worth of military hardware.
Elsewhere, Moscow's bullying has backfired. Russia has banned Moldovan
wine, threatened to cut off gas supplies to that republic and warned
that the people of its Russian-occupied separatist enclave of
Transnistria would resist any agreement with the E.U. But Moldova
remains committed to initialing a free-trade agreement with the
European Union in Vilnius, and it has responded to the threat of an
energy boycott by quickly agreeing with Romania to build a pipeline
linking the two countries.
Georgia, for years the target of Russian boycotts and security
threats, is ruled by Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, who was
rumored to be less anti-Russian than outgoing President Mikheil
Saakashvili. Yet Georgia, too, is about to initial a free-trade
agreement in Vilnius, signaling that European integration is a
national aspiration, not the choice of any particular party.
Ukraine is the biggest prize, and there Russia's bullying has been
particularly counter-productive. In addition to the usual economic
threats and trade sanctions, including a ban on the import of
Ukrainian chocolates, Putin offended Ukrainians during a state visit
in July, saying that they and the Russians were a "single people," and
that the Ukranians had flourished under Soviet rule - totally ignoring
the famine of the early 1930s that Ukrainians call the Holodomor, or
"extermination by hunger."
In an Independence Day speech at the end of August, Ukrainian
President Viktor Yanukovych called association with the European Union
"an important stimulus for forming a modern European state." In short
order, Ukraine's parliament passed reforms required by the E.U.
dealing with such issues as corruption, tariffs and prisons; and the
daughter of Yulia Tymoshenko, the imprisoned former prime minister
whose release the E.U. has insisted on, has said that she hopes her
mother's freedom might be imminent.
The Russian online newspaper Gazeta.ru said recently that "Blackmail
is the worst possible way of advertising economic cooperation." But
Russia's problem is more than tactical. Its post-communist neighbors
prefer the relative dynamism of Europe - with all its debt and growth
problems - to Russia's stagnant economy, and they have no interest in
sharply raising tariffs, which joining the protectionist Eurasian
Customs Union would require.
The process playing out in Europe has attracted little attention in
the U.S. media or from the Obama administration, which has been mostly
preoccupied with the Middle East and its pivot to Asia. But the
opportunities are considerable, and there are important ways
Washington could help.
The United States needs to engage with the governments and with civil
society in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to ensure that the reform
process underway not only promotes greater trade and development but
also produces governments that are less corrupt and more accountable
to their societies. An association agreement with the European Union
should be seen not as an end in itself but as a starting point that
makes possible deeper reforms and more genuine democracy.
Russian democracy also can benefit from this process. Ukraine's choice
to join Europe will accelerate the demise of the ideology of Russian
imperialism that Putin represents. There are signs of the emergence of
a new Russian nationalism: the strong performance by opposition leader
Alexei Navalny in Moscow's recent mayoral election and polls that show
greater opposition to Putin in the Russian provinces, his traditional
support base. This nationalism is concerned not with the restoration
of Russia's imperial greatness, which would be inconceivable if
Ukraine joined Europe, but with fighting corruption and addressing the
severe economic and social problems of the Russian people.
Russians, too, face a choice, and Putin may find himself on the losing
end not just in the near abroad but within Russia itself.
The writer is president of the National Endowment for Democracy.