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TURKEY NEEDS TO RETURN TO ACTIVE NEUTRALITY
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
April 17 2014
by SEMİH İDİZ
Developments in Ukraine have pushed the Syrian crisis to the background
much to the satisfaction of the Syrian regime. Bashar al-Assad is
already talking about having turned the tide to his advantage and is
saying it is a matter of time before he wins.
It is doubtful, however, whether he can ultimately win because of the
tactics some groups among the Syrian opposition are using. Al-Assad
may take control over towns and cities, but it is unlikely that he
will be able to prevent the kind of terrorist attacks that we see so
frequently in Iraq.
All of this is bad news for Turkey. Not only because of the actual
spillover effect in terms of terrorism, but also because of the
country's image. Whether it is justified or not, the impression that
Ankara is aiding Jihadist groups in Syria has stuck, regardless of
how much the government denies it.
Turkey is even being implicated in the attack on the predominantly
Armenian town of Kassab with all sorts of parallels being drawn
between today and 1915. It is, of course, cynical for Armenian
activists to try and capitalize on developments in Syria in favor of
genocide recognition.
This should be an occasion for Armenian and Turkish humanitarian
groups to cooperate to help Armenians refugees from Kassab, no matter
how much this may appear as wishful thinking given ossified attitudes
on both sides.
This aspect of the situation aside, Ankara should do everything
possible to ensure that it is not secretly working with al-Qaeda groups
like al-Nusra in Syria, as is being claimed today. The more it lets
this perception prevail, the more credibility it will lose over Syria.
Meanwhile, the Geneva track on Syria has fallen to the background
due to rising tensions between its key sponsors, the U.S. and Russia.
Neither is it likely to be revived anytime soon given the present
tense atmosphere between the West and Russia.
Put another way, the diplomatic track for Syria will falter unless some
country or group of countries comes up with new ideas to reenergize
it. It should also be amply clear to Prime Minister Erdogan at this
stage that his personal desires for Syria will not be fulfilled.
He must acknowledge that he seriously miscalculated this crisis and
allow Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to draw up a new road map to
address the situation. A good starting point would be to have close
consultations with Iran.
Both countries are supporting opposite sides in Syria and many accuse
them of maintaining a proxy war there. The continuation of the crisis,
however, is to the detriment of Iran and Turkey in the long run and
there should be enough sense on both sides to see this.
Turkey can also play a role in easing tensions between Iran and Saudi
Arabia. These are two countries that many believe are engaged in a
genuine and destabilizing proxy war for influence in the Middle East.
Turkey must also convince the Saudis that there is no successful end
to this given the prevailing balance of power in the region. A Turkey
that can do all this will also be praised by the world as a positive
power that is working for peace.
It is clear that Turkey will have to return to a position of active
neutrality before it can even consider playing such a role. It is
equally clear that all of this is a very tall order for the Erdogan
government, which will have to seriously change its tack and establish
a positive agenda, not only in terms of foreign policy, but also in
terms of easing domestic tensions.
Success in these regards, however, is what will make history
ultimately judge if Erdogan was a good leader or not, not his ballot
box victories, which he appears to have set so much store by in order
to implement a personal agenda.
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
April 17 2014
by SEMİH İDİZ
Developments in Ukraine have pushed the Syrian crisis to the background
much to the satisfaction of the Syrian regime. Bashar al-Assad is
already talking about having turned the tide to his advantage and is
saying it is a matter of time before he wins.
It is doubtful, however, whether he can ultimately win because of the
tactics some groups among the Syrian opposition are using. Al-Assad
may take control over towns and cities, but it is unlikely that he
will be able to prevent the kind of terrorist attacks that we see so
frequently in Iraq.
All of this is bad news for Turkey. Not only because of the actual
spillover effect in terms of terrorism, but also because of the
country's image. Whether it is justified or not, the impression that
Ankara is aiding Jihadist groups in Syria has stuck, regardless of
how much the government denies it.
Turkey is even being implicated in the attack on the predominantly
Armenian town of Kassab with all sorts of parallels being drawn
between today and 1915. It is, of course, cynical for Armenian
activists to try and capitalize on developments in Syria in favor of
genocide recognition.
This should be an occasion for Armenian and Turkish humanitarian
groups to cooperate to help Armenians refugees from Kassab, no matter
how much this may appear as wishful thinking given ossified attitudes
on both sides.
This aspect of the situation aside, Ankara should do everything
possible to ensure that it is not secretly working with al-Qaeda groups
like al-Nusra in Syria, as is being claimed today. The more it lets
this perception prevail, the more credibility it will lose over Syria.
Meanwhile, the Geneva track on Syria has fallen to the background
due to rising tensions between its key sponsors, the U.S. and Russia.
Neither is it likely to be revived anytime soon given the present
tense atmosphere between the West and Russia.
Put another way, the diplomatic track for Syria will falter unless some
country or group of countries comes up with new ideas to reenergize
it. It should also be amply clear to Prime Minister Erdogan at this
stage that his personal desires for Syria will not be fulfilled.
He must acknowledge that he seriously miscalculated this crisis and
allow Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to draw up a new road map to
address the situation. A good starting point would be to have close
consultations with Iran.
Both countries are supporting opposite sides in Syria and many accuse
them of maintaining a proxy war there. The continuation of the crisis,
however, is to the detriment of Iran and Turkey in the long run and
there should be enough sense on both sides to see this.
Turkey can also play a role in easing tensions between Iran and Saudi
Arabia. These are two countries that many believe are engaged in a
genuine and destabilizing proxy war for influence in the Middle East.
Turkey must also convince the Saudis that there is no successful end
to this given the prevailing balance of power in the region. A Turkey
that can do all this will also be praised by the world as a positive
power that is working for peace.
It is clear that Turkey will have to return to a position of active
neutrality before it can even consider playing such a role. It is
equally clear that all of this is a very tall order for the Erdogan
government, which will have to seriously change its tack and establish
a positive agenda, not only in terms of foreign policy, but also in
terms of easing domestic tensions.
Success in these regards, however, is what will make history
ultimately judge if Erdogan was a good leader or not, not his ballot
box victories, which he appears to have set so much store by in order
to implement a personal agenda.