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EVERYONE PREPARING TO SHIFT STATUS QUO
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Thursday, 17 April 2014, 17:27
On April 29 Serzh Sargsyan may sign the agreement on membership to
Customs Union and announce intention to be a co-founder of the Eurasian
Union. It will change the situation in Karabakh fundamentally, and
it will automatically pass to the "area of Eurasian responsibility".
According to Russian officials, the Eurasian Union is an attempt to
unite CSTO and the Customs Union. In other words, it is an attempt at
defense of the economic and political area by common troops. After the
accession of Armenia to the Eurasian Union the CSTO may be responsible
for security in the area of the Karabakh conflict.
Yerevan states that preparations for membership to the Customs Union
are almost complete. It is not specified whether the Karabakh issue has
been agreed. If not, what is the vision of Armenia after membership to
an organization that may draw a line between Karabakh and Armenia? If
yes, what have Armenia and the Customs Union agreed and why do they
prefer not to talk about it?
The developments in Ukraine illustrated the need for hard work to
avoid similar issues in Karabakh, the chairman of the OSCE PA Ranko
Krivokapic said in Baku.
The United States is trying to organize a meeting of the presidents of
Armenia and Azerbaijan before Armenia signs the agreement on membership
to the Customs Union. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chair James Warlick is
constantly talking about it. Moscow does not need that meeting, and
it will do everything to thwart the meeting. Several weeks are left,
and the Minsk Group that has been preventing Moscow from freedom of
actions for 20 years may become obsolete because the conflict will
become Russia's area of responsibility.
Hence, a peculiar situation may occur in Karabakh. What will the
United States and France do in case Moscow announces to leave the
OSCE Minsk Group and launch independent actions in Karabakh? Will
those two countries deploy their troops in Karabakh?
In Russia's previous conflicts NATO member states did not have a
political lever for influence. In case of Karabakh they have. It is
the Minsk group. But will the United States and France use it?
International analysts ask questions, including what the west will do
in case Russia tries to lay out a road to its Gyumri military base via
Javakheti. Svante Cornell does not rule out this option. Deployment
of Russian troops in Karabakh is also a realistic option.
The countries of the region are actively preparing for change of
status quo in Karabakh. Iran is trying to agree with Azerbaijan and
has received further assurances that Baku will not allow an Israeli
military base in its territory. Azerbaijan is preparing Nakhidjevan for
defense, perhaps expecting that Armenia will try to take Nakhidjevan.
Georgia is preparing to face Russia's aggression and separatism in
Javakheti, as if hinting something.
While Armenia has been engaged in petty intrigues to divide whatever
is left in the country, Karabakh is trying to understand whether it
was correct to celebrate annexation of Crimea by Russia.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32292#sthash.LRUOQwiF.dpuf
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Thursday, 17 April 2014, 17:27
On April 29 Serzh Sargsyan may sign the agreement on membership to
Customs Union and announce intention to be a co-founder of the Eurasian
Union. It will change the situation in Karabakh fundamentally, and
it will automatically pass to the "area of Eurasian responsibility".
According to Russian officials, the Eurasian Union is an attempt to
unite CSTO and the Customs Union. In other words, it is an attempt at
defense of the economic and political area by common troops. After the
accession of Armenia to the Eurasian Union the CSTO may be responsible
for security in the area of the Karabakh conflict.
Yerevan states that preparations for membership to the Customs Union
are almost complete. It is not specified whether the Karabakh issue has
been agreed. If not, what is the vision of Armenia after membership to
an organization that may draw a line between Karabakh and Armenia? If
yes, what have Armenia and the Customs Union agreed and why do they
prefer not to talk about it?
The developments in Ukraine illustrated the need for hard work to
avoid similar issues in Karabakh, the chairman of the OSCE PA Ranko
Krivokapic said in Baku.
The United States is trying to organize a meeting of the presidents of
Armenia and Azerbaijan before Armenia signs the agreement on membership
to the Customs Union. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chair James Warlick is
constantly talking about it. Moscow does not need that meeting, and
it will do everything to thwart the meeting. Several weeks are left,
and the Minsk Group that has been preventing Moscow from freedom of
actions for 20 years may become obsolete because the conflict will
become Russia's area of responsibility.
Hence, a peculiar situation may occur in Karabakh. What will the
United States and France do in case Moscow announces to leave the
OSCE Minsk Group and launch independent actions in Karabakh? Will
those two countries deploy their troops in Karabakh?
In Russia's previous conflicts NATO member states did not have a
political lever for influence. In case of Karabakh they have. It is
the Minsk group. But will the United States and France use it?
International analysts ask questions, including what the west will do
in case Russia tries to lay out a road to its Gyumri military base via
Javakheti. Svante Cornell does not rule out this option. Deployment
of Russian troops in Karabakh is also a realistic option.
The countries of the region are actively preparing for change of
status quo in Karabakh. Iran is trying to agree with Azerbaijan and
has received further assurances that Baku will not allow an Israeli
military base in its territory. Azerbaijan is preparing Nakhidjevan for
defense, perhaps expecting that Armenia will try to take Nakhidjevan.
Georgia is preparing to face Russia's aggression and separatism in
Javakheti, as if hinting something.
While Armenia has been engaged in petty intrigues to divide whatever
is left in the country, Karabakh is trying to understand whether it
was correct to celebrate annexation of Crimea by Russia.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32292#sthash.LRUOQwiF.dpuf