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Azerbaijan Achieved Its Goal: Two States Left In South Caucasus
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Saturday, 19 April 2014, 15:03
Soon after September 3 Lragir.am wrote that the situation in the South
Caucasus will change, and the United States and NATO, considering it
meaningless to continue to develop relations with countries that have
stopped being a subject in the South Caucasus, will realize the
necessity to bid on Azerbaijan together with Georgia, of course.
A vassal state located in the South Caucasus is not only unpleasant
and useless but also poses danger as an enclosed Russian base. But
then, in autumn, there was sensitivity of Europe, while the United
States burnt the bridges with the Russian vassal. There were hopes for
some interest in NATO to offer some obliging dialogue with the Russian
vassal through the United States and other states that would save
those relations.
However, Maidan catalyzed the process and led the vassal states into
explicit international isolation. A recent decision of NATO regarding
cooperation with partners demonstrates that the United States and NATO
have no reason to take care of the security of a hostile Russian
vassal.
In spring and summer 2013 Lragir.am tried to explain the meaning of
the position of the United States and NATO on the problems of military
cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan. The position of the United
States and NATO was that of containment of the Turkish-Azerbaijani
defense factor, and NATO thought that the Turkish-Azerbaijani
agreement on mutual assistance and preparation of military forces are
not legitimate from the point of view of both NATO and the UN.
The United States and NATO occupied a watchful and critical position
on this cooperation, as well as, in fact, threatened NATO policy in
case of Turkish intervention in the South Caucasian armed conflict. In
addition, a direct intervention of Turkey would be viewed by NATO as
aggression with all the ensuing conclusions. Hence, NATO and the
United States appeared to be a key factor of containment of Turkish
intervention and escalation of a possible conflict.
It is better to be beside NATO than against NATO or indifferent to the
goals and objectives of the alliance. Now only memories are left from
this situation. The community of experts does not have doubts that
arrangements between Turkey and Azerbaijan in the sphere of defense
have been agreed with the United States and NATO. It is so convincing
and obvious that nobody denies.
Over many years the United States conducted a policy of containment of
Turkey in different regional directions, including in the South
Caucasus but Russia's actions in Ukraine necessitated reanimation of
Turkey's role as a partner of the United States and NATO in the Black
Sea and the Caucasian region. Will it lead to normalization of
relations between Turkey and the West? It is not easy to tell now but
Turkish support to Azerbaijan is important to the United States and
Europe, which is more than obvious and reprehensible.
The United States could create a security `umbrella' under different
impressions but when Russia openly demonstrates military expansion,
one should use Turkey's services. In parallel to the South Caucasian
objective, distracting Turkey's attention from the Near East was
pursued, which is an important direction in the U.S. policy on the
region.
Turkey has obviously received a cart blanche in Syria and will not
miss this chance, as well as other opportunities. Most importantly,
however, the United States needs to cause a clash between Turkey and
Russia in a large-scale geopolitical conflict. The South Caucasus
would feel comfortable in a situation when the United States conducts
a policy of `double containment' of Russia and Turkey. But to what
extent will this policy be corrected and what new highlights will it
have when vassal countries are crossed out of the list of partners and
the South Caucasus consists of two states, Georgia and Azerbaijan?
Now the new geopolitics in the South Caucasus is gaining features that
were not imagined earlier, and this scenario will be progressing. The
new geopolitics certainly concerns Georgia, but the main user of the
new situation will be or already is Azerbaijan which has been waiting
for the three components of international politics. The United States
and NATO approved the Turkish-Azerbaijani military alliance, and it is
legitimate from the point of view of and proceeding from the interests
of the Western community. All the problems and claims of the Russian
vassal have lost even the limited recognition, the Russian expansion
towards Azerbaijan was recognized as a destructive policy and the West
is ready to support it in resisting expansion.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32306#sthash.SA9T6sk1.dpuf
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Saturday, 19 April 2014, 15:03
Soon after September 3 Lragir.am wrote that the situation in the South
Caucasus will change, and the United States and NATO, considering it
meaningless to continue to develop relations with countries that have
stopped being a subject in the South Caucasus, will realize the
necessity to bid on Azerbaijan together with Georgia, of course.
A vassal state located in the South Caucasus is not only unpleasant
and useless but also poses danger as an enclosed Russian base. But
then, in autumn, there was sensitivity of Europe, while the United
States burnt the bridges with the Russian vassal. There were hopes for
some interest in NATO to offer some obliging dialogue with the Russian
vassal through the United States and other states that would save
those relations.
However, Maidan catalyzed the process and led the vassal states into
explicit international isolation. A recent decision of NATO regarding
cooperation with partners demonstrates that the United States and NATO
have no reason to take care of the security of a hostile Russian
vassal.
In spring and summer 2013 Lragir.am tried to explain the meaning of
the position of the United States and NATO on the problems of military
cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan. The position of the United
States and NATO was that of containment of the Turkish-Azerbaijani
defense factor, and NATO thought that the Turkish-Azerbaijani
agreement on mutual assistance and preparation of military forces are
not legitimate from the point of view of both NATO and the UN.
The United States and NATO occupied a watchful and critical position
on this cooperation, as well as, in fact, threatened NATO policy in
case of Turkish intervention in the South Caucasian armed conflict. In
addition, a direct intervention of Turkey would be viewed by NATO as
aggression with all the ensuing conclusions. Hence, NATO and the
United States appeared to be a key factor of containment of Turkish
intervention and escalation of a possible conflict.
It is better to be beside NATO than against NATO or indifferent to the
goals and objectives of the alliance. Now only memories are left from
this situation. The community of experts does not have doubts that
arrangements between Turkey and Azerbaijan in the sphere of defense
have been agreed with the United States and NATO. It is so convincing
and obvious that nobody denies.
Over many years the United States conducted a policy of containment of
Turkey in different regional directions, including in the South
Caucasus but Russia's actions in Ukraine necessitated reanimation of
Turkey's role as a partner of the United States and NATO in the Black
Sea and the Caucasian region. Will it lead to normalization of
relations between Turkey and the West? It is not easy to tell now but
Turkish support to Azerbaijan is important to the United States and
Europe, which is more than obvious and reprehensible.
The United States could create a security `umbrella' under different
impressions but when Russia openly demonstrates military expansion,
one should use Turkey's services. In parallel to the South Caucasian
objective, distracting Turkey's attention from the Near East was
pursued, which is an important direction in the U.S. policy on the
region.
Turkey has obviously received a cart blanche in Syria and will not
miss this chance, as well as other opportunities. Most importantly,
however, the United States needs to cause a clash between Turkey and
Russia in a large-scale geopolitical conflict. The South Caucasus
would feel comfortable in a situation when the United States conducts
a policy of `double containment' of Russia and Turkey. But to what
extent will this policy be corrected and what new highlights will it
have when vassal countries are crossed out of the list of partners and
the South Caucasus consists of two states, Georgia and Azerbaijan?
Now the new geopolitics in the South Caucasus is gaining features that
were not imagined earlier, and this scenario will be progressing. The
new geopolitics certainly concerns Georgia, but the main user of the
new situation will be or already is Azerbaijan which has been waiting
for the three components of international politics. The United States
and NATO approved the Turkish-Azerbaijani military alliance, and it is
legitimate from the point of view of and proceeding from the interests
of the Western community. All the problems and claims of the Russian
vassal have lost even the limited recognition, the Russian expansion
towards Azerbaijan was recognized as a destructive policy and the West
is ready to support it in resisting expansion.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32306#sthash.SA9T6sk1.dpuf
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress