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NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT - WHY THE CONFLICT WILL NOT BE ESCALATED
Georgia Today, Georgia
Aug 7 2014
By Nika Meshveliani
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict escalated for the seventh time over
last few years, resulting in casualties on both sides, despite the
ceasefire treaty that was signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1994.
According to official sources, 15 militaries are dead as a result of
clashes that took place from July 31 to August 2; however, unofficial
sources claim that the fatalities are higher.
One may think that this is not a normal escalation of the conflict,
but rather the beginning of a crisis, especially if one considers the
current developments around the region, with Israel-Gaza, Syria and
especially the events which are taking place inside Ukraine. However,
the turning of this situation into a crisis is highly unlikely due to
the devastating effect it will have on regional security and stability,
which neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan wants. So, who will benefit the
most from the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh?
The side benefiting from the conflict the most is Russia, as it will
increase its military presence in the Caucasus; at the same time,
the conflict will destabilize the region, which will help to increase
Russia's influence over the region.
However this scenario is unlikely to happen because there is too much
at stake, especially for Azerbaijan. It is true that militarily and
economically in terms of its capabilities Azerbaijan is further ahead
than Armenia; Russia however is the guarantor of Armenia's security.
They signed a Defence Pact with Russia in 2010, according to which
Russia extended its basing rights till 2044 and as Razmik Zohrabian,
the deputy chairman of President Serzh Sarkisian's Republican Party
said when the Pact was signed: "If war again breaks out between
Karabakh and Azerbaijan, Armenia will naturally directly intervene,
and if Armenia has the right to use the Russian base for its security,
it means that Russia has to join the war on Armenia's side". Russia
keeps the balance of power between the two sides.
On the other hand, Azerbaijan also has an Agreement on Strategic
Partnership and Mutual Support signed with Turkey, which means that
both countries will support each other "using all possibilities"
in the case of a military attack or "aggression" against either of
the countries. So, as long as Turkey and Russia play their part as
balancing actors, escalation of the conflict into a war is highly
improbable.
Energy security is another factor why the situation will not get worse
than it is. Apart from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) natural gas pipeline, there is also the
operational Shah Deniz stage 2 project, which started last year. Shah
Deniz is a $28 billion capital investment project in the Caspian Sea in
order to produce gas, build new pipelines and transport gas to Turkey
from Azerbaijan through Georgia. It is expected to increase energy
security of not only these countries but also the energy security
of the European Union, since they will be less dependent on Russia,
who used in the past - and uses at the moment - the natural energy it
produces as a political weapon (e.g. 2005-2006 Ukraine gas crises;
produced by Russia with the aim to keep Ukraine from going towards
the West).
Although during the Russia-Georgia war in 2008, pipelines were
unaffected, the same guarantees cannot be made in the case of
Azerbaijan-Armenia, as the pipeline runs 15 kilometres away from
the Karabakh region's borders; therefore, considering such a high
investments in Azerbaijan and in the region to secure energy flow,
escalation of the conflict may endanger current arrangement for energy
security and will have huge negative effect on Azerbaijan's economy.
These are one of the most important factors why both sides will
eventually respect the status quo.
Negotiations for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
continue under the auspices of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group.
Presidents are also supposed to meet on Friday, August 8, in Sochi
to hold trilateral talks with Vladimir Putin as a mediator. This is
in a way ironic because as mentioned above a peaceful resolution of
the conflict would be reflected negatively on them.
Firstly, it would create a more peaceful, stable and secure atmosphere
in the region and as a consequence, Russia's influence and leverage
in the South Caucasus will be diminished.
Secondly, it would set a precedent for Abkhazia and Tskhinvali (South
Ossetia) regions for a peaceful resolution of the conflicts.
Thirdly, a secure and stable atmosphere in the region will improve
economic cooperation, more foreign investments will be made and all
this will help transiting the energy towards the European Union,
with the region becoming less depended on Russia; therefore Russia
will lose its leverage that it has at the moment towards the West as
well in terms of energy security.
Taking all of this into account the conflict should not escalate any
further at the moment; however, the recent Ukrainian crisis proves
that Russia is not a stable partner and taking into account president
Putin's nostalgia for the Soviet Union nothing can be said for sure.
7.08.2014
http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=12566
Georgia Today, Georgia
Aug 7 2014
By Nika Meshveliani
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict escalated for the seventh time over
last few years, resulting in casualties on both sides, despite the
ceasefire treaty that was signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1994.
According to official sources, 15 militaries are dead as a result of
clashes that took place from July 31 to August 2; however, unofficial
sources claim that the fatalities are higher.
One may think that this is not a normal escalation of the conflict,
but rather the beginning of a crisis, especially if one considers the
current developments around the region, with Israel-Gaza, Syria and
especially the events which are taking place inside Ukraine. However,
the turning of this situation into a crisis is highly unlikely due to
the devastating effect it will have on regional security and stability,
which neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan wants. So, who will benefit the
most from the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh?
The side benefiting from the conflict the most is Russia, as it will
increase its military presence in the Caucasus; at the same time,
the conflict will destabilize the region, which will help to increase
Russia's influence over the region.
However this scenario is unlikely to happen because there is too much
at stake, especially for Azerbaijan. It is true that militarily and
economically in terms of its capabilities Azerbaijan is further ahead
than Armenia; Russia however is the guarantor of Armenia's security.
They signed a Defence Pact with Russia in 2010, according to which
Russia extended its basing rights till 2044 and as Razmik Zohrabian,
the deputy chairman of President Serzh Sarkisian's Republican Party
said when the Pact was signed: "If war again breaks out between
Karabakh and Azerbaijan, Armenia will naturally directly intervene,
and if Armenia has the right to use the Russian base for its security,
it means that Russia has to join the war on Armenia's side". Russia
keeps the balance of power between the two sides.
On the other hand, Azerbaijan also has an Agreement on Strategic
Partnership and Mutual Support signed with Turkey, which means that
both countries will support each other "using all possibilities"
in the case of a military attack or "aggression" against either of
the countries. So, as long as Turkey and Russia play their part as
balancing actors, escalation of the conflict into a war is highly
improbable.
Energy security is another factor why the situation will not get worse
than it is. Apart from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) natural gas pipeline, there is also the
operational Shah Deniz stage 2 project, which started last year. Shah
Deniz is a $28 billion capital investment project in the Caspian Sea in
order to produce gas, build new pipelines and transport gas to Turkey
from Azerbaijan through Georgia. It is expected to increase energy
security of not only these countries but also the energy security
of the European Union, since they will be less dependent on Russia,
who used in the past - and uses at the moment - the natural energy it
produces as a political weapon (e.g. 2005-2006 Ukraine gas crises;
produced by Russia with the aim to keep Ukraine from going towards
the West).
Although during the Russia-Georgia war in 2008, pipelines were
unaffected, the same guarantees cannot be made in the case of
Azerbaijan-Armenia, as the pipeline runs 15 kilometres away from
the Karabakh region's borders; therefore, considering such a high
investments in Azerbaijan and in the region to secure energy flow,
escalation of the conflict may endanger current arrangement for energy
security and will have huge negative effect on Azerbaijan's economy.
These are one of the most important factors why both sides will
eventually respect the status quo.
Negotiations for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
continue under the auspices of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group.
Presidents are also supposed to meet on Friday, August 8, in Sochi
to hold trilateral talks with Vladimir Putin as a mediator. This is
in a way ironic because as mentioned above a peaceful resolution of
the conflict would be reflected negatively on them.
Firstly, it would create a more peaceful, stable and secure atmosphere
in the region and as a consequence, Russia's influence and leverage
in the South Caucasus will be diminished.
Secondly, it would set a precedent for Abkhazia and Tskhinvali (South
Ossetia) regions for a peaceful resolution of the conflicts.
Thirdly, a secure and stable atmosphere in the region will improve
economic cooperation, more foreign investments will be made and all
this will help transiting the energy towards the European Union,
with the region becoming less depended on Russia; therefore Russia
will lose its leverage that it has at the moment towards the West as
well in terms of energy security.
Taking all of this into account the conflict should not escalate any
further at the moment; however, the recent Ukrainian crisis proves
that Russia is not a stable partner and taking into account president
Putin's nostalgia for the Soviet Union nothing can be said for sure.
7.08.2014
http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=12566