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AZERBAIJAN TALKS TOUGH AS NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT HEATS UP
Foreign Policy
Aug 8 2014
BY Reid Standish
One day after President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan threatened war
with neighboring Armenia via Twitter, Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry
issued a statement saying that the country is prepared for war in
the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The recent bout of fighting cost Azerbaijan 12 troops and Nagorno
Karabakh three, each side confirmed on Saturday. Exactly what set off
the latest violence between the former Soviet republics is unclear
but both point to the other as the aggressor.
The Nagorno-Karabakh border remains heavily militarized. Azerbaijan
and Armenia each have 20,000 troops dug into World War I-style
trenches on their respective sides. Exchanges of sniper shots are
common but the recent fighting has raised the stakes. On Wednesday
Aliyev visited the frontlines, spending time with an Azerbaijani
military unit. The day after the president's return from the front,
he launched a sabre-rattling Twitter tirade, announcing Azerbaijan's
preparedness for war.
The two countries already fought a brutal, six-year war over
Nagorno-Karabakh that wracked up at least 30,000 casualties and
displaced hundreds of thousands of people. A cease-fire brokered by
Russia in 1994 ended formal hostilities but international efforts to
reach a last solution have failed and the conflict has been in limbo
for the last 20 years.
The heart of the conflict lies in the ethnic and political divisions
that existed when Armenia and Azerbaijan were Soviet republics.
Despite being part of Soviet Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh was home to a
large ethnic Armenian population. In 1988, the Armenians of Karabakh
-- encouraged by politicians in Yerevan, the Armenian capital --
demanded unification with Soviet Armenia. Then, in December 1989,
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh declared unification and war broke
out with Azerbaijan. Armenia was able to hold Nagorno-Karabakh and,
following the 1994 cease-fire, retained control over the territory.
Azerbaijan keeps claiming the land as its own and considers it an
occupied territory.
Following its defeat, Azerbaijan launched a silent arms race to break
Armenia's economy. Funded by its hydrocarbon wealth, Baku, Azerbaijan's
capital, has been on a military spending spree, allocating $3.44
billion for defense in 2013. Its defense budget has skyrocketed 493
percent since 2004, according to the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute (SIPRI). Armenia has done its best to follow suit,
spending $427 million on defense -- a 115 percent increase from
2004, according to SIPRI. But lacking Azerbaijani natural-resource
wealth, Armenia has turned to Russia for military aid to bolster its
security. In return, Moscow has taken its pound of flesh from Yerevan
by establishing a major military base in Armenia.
With tensions high after the recent clashes, both Russia and the United
States have made calls for calm along the border and for reviving the
OSCE Minsk Group process -- which was established to bring a lasting
solution to the conflict following the 1994 cease-fire. Russian
President Vladimir Putin has set up meetings with the Azerbaijani
and Armenian presidents for Friday and Saturday, in a bid to broker a
cease-fire. But a lasting solution will require more than just Russian
pressure. Moreover, with U.S.-Russia relations at an all-time low,
international cooperation on Nagorno-Karabakh looks confined to the
trenches for the immediate future.
KAREN MINASYAN/AFP/GettyImages
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/08/08/azerbaijan_talks_tough_as_nagorno_karabakh_conflic t_heats_up
Foreign Policy
Aug 8 2014
BY Reid Standish
One day after President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan threatened war
with neighboring Armenia via Twitter, Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry
issued a statement saying that the country is prepared for war in
the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The recent bout of fighting cost Azerbaijan 12 troops and Nagorno
Karabakh three, each side confirmed on Saturday. Exactly what set off
the latest violence between the former Soviet republics is unclear
but both point to the other as the aggressor.
The Nagorno-Karabakh border remains heavily militarized. Azerbaijan
and Armenia each have 20,000 troops dug into World War I-style
trenches on their respective sides. Exchanges of sniper shots are
common but the recent fighting has raised the stakes. On Wednesday
Aliyev visited the frontlines, spending time with an Azerbaijani
military unit. The day after the president's return from the front,
he launched a sabre-rattling Twitter tirade, announcing Azerbaijan's
preparedness for war.
The two countries already fought a brutal, six-year war over
Nagorno-Karabakh that wracked up at least 30,000 casualties and
displaced hundreds of thousands of people. A cease-fire brokered by
Russia in 1994 ended formal hostilities but international efforts to
reach a last solution have failed and the conflict has been in limbo
for the last 20 years.
The heart of the conflict lies in the ethnic and political divisions
that existed when Armenia and Azerbaijan were Soviet republics.
Despite being part of Soviet Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh was home to a
large ethnic Armenian population. In 1988, the Armenians of Karabakh
-- encouraged by politicians in Yerevan, the Armenian capital --
demanded unification with Soviet Armenia. Then, in December 1989,
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh declared unification and war broke
out with Azerbaijan. Armenia was able to hold Nagorno-Karabakh and,
following the 1994 cease-fire, retained control over the territory.
Azerbaijan keeps claiming the land as its own and considers it an
occupied territory.
Following its defeat, Azerbaijan launched a silent arms race to break
Armenia's economy. Funded by its hydrocarbon wealth, Baku, Azerbaijan's
capital, has been on a military spending spree, allocating $3.44
billion for defense in 2013. Its defense budget has skyrocketed 493
percent since 2004, according to the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute (SIPRI). Armenia has done its best to follow suit,
spending $427 million on defense -- a 115 percent increase from
2004, according to SIPRI. But lacking Azerbaijani natural-resource
wealth, Armenia has turned to Russia for military aid to bolster its
security. In return, Moscow has taken its pound of flesh from Yerevan
by establishing a major military base in Armenia.
With tensions high after the recent clashes, both Russia and the United
States have made calls for calm along the border and for reviving the
OSCE Minsk Group process -- which was established to bring a lasting
solution to the conflict following the 1994 cease-fire. Russian
President Vladimir Putin has set up meetings with the Azerbaijani
and Armenian presidents for Friday and Saturday, in a bid to broker a
cease-fire. But a lasting solution will require more than just Russian
pressure. Moreover, with U.S.-Russia relations at an all-time low,
international cooperation on Nagorno-Karabakh looks confined to the
trenches for the immediate future.
KAREN MINASYAN/AFP/GettyImages
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/08/08/azerbaijan_talks_tough_as_nagorno_karabakh_conflic t_heats_up