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COMBAT REHEARSAL
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 8 2014
8 August 2014 - 10:45am
By Alan Kasayev, head of a sub-department of the MSLU, Candidate of
History. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The mass combat predicted by the OSCE Minsk Group in Nagorno-Karabakh
has actually happened. Disputes about losses in the most violent clash
on the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line will continue and none of
the sides will publicly agree with the arguments of the other. But
who started the fight does not matter. What matters is that the world
community may face a new challenge, which is in fact an old settled
one, and this challenge may be the last straw that... In general,
God forbid!
In the 1990s, talk about the typology of post-Soviet conflicts
were popular in the arena of political analysis. They would all end
with an admission of the fact that "Comrade Stalin was to blame for
everything." Nikolai Zlobin, a notable political analyst of the first
decade of this millennium, wrote that the fall of the USSR continued
and that the state borders of 1991 could be reconsidered again. His
hypothesis was somewhat proven in August 2008 when Russia recognized
the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Once again, the
post-Soviet borders changed in spring 2014 when Ukraine lost Crimea
and Russia took it over. But that is when the typological similarities
come to an end.
Potential zones of interstate conflicts in post-Soviet space are not
worth considering as ready for implementation. There is little chance
that the Eurasian Economic Union would turn into a war zone. The price
is too high for the potential "warmongers" and the risk of strong
neighbours in Central Asia in the south and in the east entering the
conflict is too great.
But Nagorno-Karabakh is quite ready for consumption today. Who is
ready to consume it? The authorities of the republic are the primary
force. What is their goal? Occupation of territory is very doubtful,
there are 7 districts of Azerbaijan ready for bargaining... Usurpation
of international political legitimacy is a lot more interesting for
the political elites of Karabakh. Not as part of Russia, of course,
but the idea thrown into the information space is a typical fake. Nor
as part of Armenia, so as to prevent the Armenian state from getting
into a worse situation... But in the case of a new long conflict
with high casualties in Stepanakert, they can hope for much greater
attention from the superpowers. If we imagine that the number of
unrecognized states in the southern sub-region of post-Soviet space
will grow in the future, the chances improve. The most important
thing is to start and withstand the offensive of the Azerbaijani army.
Azerbaijan is interested in a resolution of the Karabakh conflict. The
power and influence of the state have grown in the last decade. The
army has turned into a serious power capable of solving many regional
problems by force. Regaining the territory means strengthening status
even more for Baku but only if military actions succeed. Azerbaijan
does not want a long war: Azerbaijan will make use of time, due to
economic and demographic reasons, the international situation and
economic conjuncture would not favour a war. Baku understands this
and continues stressing diplomatic actions. They are obviously more
successful for Azerbaijan, which remains a real strategic partner of
Russia and does not join any multilateral alliances of the West and
the East.
Armenia is one of the sides of the Karabakh conflict but its economy
is very vulnerable. It could emphasize its value for settlement but
only if it had real levers to affect the military and the economic
pace of the conflict in its hot phase. Such hopes seem dubious.
Evaluating the background of the upcoming talks of the Russian,
Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
in Sochi, it is hard to make good forecasts for the meeting.
Rational assessments do not always affect the situation. For example,
there can be such factor as striving for influential regional and
global forces to put the flame of war out in the south-east of
Ukraine as soon as possible. Where should the hundreds of mobilized
militants, including mercenaries going through an active phase
of self-realization, be sent? Maybe the energy of those bellicose
individuals should be focused on a spiritually and territorially
closer hot spot.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/58575.html
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 8 2014
8 August 2014 - 10:45am
By Alan Kasayev, head of a sub-department of the MSLU, Candidate of
History. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The mass combat predicted by the OSCE Minsk Group in Nagorno-Karabakh
has actually happened. Disputes about losses in the most violent clash
on the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line will continue and none of
the sides will publicly agree with the arguments of the other. But
who started the fight does not matter. What matters is that the world
community may face a new challenge, which is in fact an old settled
one, and this challenge may be the last straw that... In general,
God forbid!
In the 1990s, talk about the typology of post-Soviet conflicts
were popular in the arena of political analysis. They would all end
with an admission of the fact that "Comrade Stalin was to blame for
everything." Nikolai Zlobin, a notable political analyst of the first
decade of this millennium, wrote that the fall of the USSR continued
and that the state borders of 1991 could be reconsidered again. His
hypothesis was somewhat proven in August 2008 when Russia recognized
the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Once again, the
post-Soviet borders changed in spring 2014 when Ukraine lost Crimea
and Russia took it over. But that is when the typological similarities
come to an end.
Potential zones of interstate conflicts in post-Soviet space are not
worth considering as ready for implementation. There is little chance
that the Eurasian Economic Union would turn into a war zone. The price
is too high for the potential "warmongers" and the risk of strong
neighbours in Central Asia in the south and in the east entering the
conflict is too great.
But Nagorno-Karabakh is quite ready for consumption today. Who is
ready to consume it? The authorities of the republic are the primary
force. What is their goal? Occupation of territory is very doubtful,
there are 7 districts of Azerbaijan ready for bargaining... Usurpation
of international political legitimacy is a lot more interesting for
the political elites of Karabakh. Not as part of Russia, of course,
but the idea thrown into the information space is a typical fake. Nor
as part of Armenia, so as to prevent the Armenian state from getting
into a worse situation... But in the case of a new long conflict
with high casualties in Stepanakert, they can hope for much greater
attention from the superpowers. If we imagine that the number of
unrecognized states in the southern sub-region of post-Soviet space
will grow in the future, the chances improve. The most important
thing is to start and withstand the offensive of the Azerbaijani army.
Azerbaijan is interested in a resolution of the Karabakh conflict. The
power and influence of the state have grown in the last decade. The
army has turned into a serious power capable of solving many regional
problems by force. Regaining the territory means strengthening status
even more for Baku but only if military actions succeed. Azerbaijan
does not want a long war: Azerbaijan will make use of time, due to
economic and demographic reasons, the international situation and
economic conjuncture would not favour a war. Baku understands this
and continues stressing diplomatic actions. They are obviously more
successful for Azerbaijan, which remains a real strategic partner of
Russia and does not join any multilateral alliances of the West and
the East.
Armenia is one of the sides of the Karabakh conflict but its economy
is very vulnerable. It could emphasize its value for settlement but
only if it had real levers to affect the military and the economic
pace of the conflict in its hot phase. Such hopes seem dubious.
Evaluating the background of the upcoming talks of the Russian,
Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
in Sochi, it is hard to make good forecasts for the meeting.
Rational assessments do not always affect the situation. For example,
there can be such factor as striving for influential regional and
global forces to put the flame of war out in the south-east of
Ukraine as soon as possible. Where should the hundreds of mobilized
militants, including mercenaries going through an active phase
of self-realization, be sent? Maybe the energy of those bellicose
individuals should be focused on a spiritually and territorially
closer hot spot.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/58575.html