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"AZERBAIJAN NEEDS CERTAIN GUARANTEES THAT THE KARABAKH CONFLICT WILL BE RESOLVED,"
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 8 2014
8 August 2014 - 7:40am
The signing of the official agreement concerning Armenia's integration
into the Eurasian Union has been being postponed for almost three
months, despite the fact that the country has also met the necessary
conditions spelled out in the "road map". There has been no official
explanation why the process of Armenia's Eurasian integration is
taking so long. Some believe the reason is secret interference from
Azerbaijan, the unresolved status of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
criticism voiced by Kazakhstan and Belarus or internal intrigues in
Armenia itself. Russian Planet discussed the issue with the head of
the Caucasian Studies Centre of the Russian State University for the
Humanities, Ismail Agakishiyev.
- Why is the process of finalization of Armenia's integration into
the Eurasian Economic Union taking so long? Which issues have been
left unresolved?
- The situation is very ambiguous. During the meeting of the Eurasian
Economic Union's Supreme Council held on May 29, Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan said that the agreement concerning the country
joining the body would be signed by June 15. Then the leaders of
Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, as well as the Armenian president,
agreed to postpone it to July 1. Then another date was suggested -
July 3 (now the parties believe the agreement should be signed in late
October 2014 - Russian Planet). The reasons are twofold. First of all
there are internal debates in Armenia. In addition to that there are
some external factors. Speaking about the internal factors, I should
note that the opposition's struggle against the Eurasian integration
project is very strong. Speaking about the foreign powers, I have to
say that Western powers, who have always been supporting president
Sargsyan's political line, are now discontent with his choice.
Armenian experts are saying that even though Armenia is a part of
this game it does not really have a say in it. It means that Armenia
does not participate in the processes unfolding in response to its
Eurasian bid.
- Is it possible that the Eurasian Union will give up Armenia's
interests in order to secure Azerbaijan's membership in the body?
- It's absolutely clear that Russian would like Azerbaijan to be
a member of the Eurasian Union. In fact, Russia is interested in
successful cooperation with Azerbaijan no matter what integration
projects are being launched in the region. Moreover, Russia is
interested in Azerbaijan more than in Armenia. The reason is
Crimea joining the Russian Federation and the economic sanctions
imposed on Russia in response to its policy towards Ukraine. Western
countries are trying to isolate Russia, and Russia has to prove that
it maintains close ties with those former Soviet republics, which
the West is interested in cooperating with as well. Azerbaijan is
indeed such a state. However, the country's successful integration
into the Eurasian Union is hardly ever possible due to its conflict
with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku paid special attention to
Russian presidential aide Sergey Glazyev's statement saying that Russia
understands the importance of resolution of the Karabakh conflict for
Azerbaijan's integration into the Eurasian Union, which he made in
an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza. The remarks made by the Eurasian
Union's unofficial envoy to Armenia, Artashes Gegamayan, at the OSCE
Parliamentary Assembly held in Baku were also quite symbolic. He
said that Armenia's decision to join the Eurasian Union is well-based
and that the country would like Azerbaijan to be a part of the body
as well. In such a case the two countries would have a chance to
resolve the existing problems, he said. This would mean that from
now on Armenians will feel comfortable in Baku and Azerbaijanis -
in Yerevan, he said. Unfortunately the Armenians believed these words
were a provocation against Armenia.
Speaking about the Eurasian Union's possible readiness to give up
Armenia's interests, we first of all have to identify those interests,
the interests of the country which occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and seven
neighbouring districts of Azerbaijan. There were reports saying that
under Russian pressure Armenia has agreed to liberate the Agdamsky,
Fizulinsky and Dzhebrailsky districts so that Azerbaijan would join
the Eurasian Union. It is unclear, however, whether Azerbaijan will
agree to such a plan or not. Some believe the territories may be
liberated after a Russian peacekeeping contingent enters the region.
Azerbaijan, however, is not certain that such a move would be
appropriate.
- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said that Armenia will be
able to join the Eurasian Union only within its borders recognized
by the United Nations, which means without Karabakh, as it was during
its joining the World Trade Organization. Does this mean that Armenia
will be able to join the body only if it gives up Karabakh?
- Only the Republic of Armenia may become a lawful member of the
Customs Union or the Eurasian Union and not Nagorno-Karabakh. The whole
world recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. This means
that Karabakh may join the Eurasian Union only as part of Azerbaijan
and not Armenia. However, Armenia's integration into the body will mean
that the Union recognizes the country which has occupied Karabakh as
a legal member of the Union. That is what Kazakh President Nursultan
Nazarbayev is afraid of. What he meant is that Armenia will be able
to join the Union by July 1 if it resolves the Karabakh conflict. The
conflict is not resolved.
Speaking about the World Trade Organization, I have to note that
Armenia agreed to join the body in the borders recognized by the UN,
while Karabakh is outside those borders. This means it's an official
precedent. The Armenians thought that the Eurasian Union would
simply ignore the Karabakh issue. In fact the Armenian authorities
were telling lies to the people, saying that they would not give up
Karabakh. I believe they are trying to secure their weakening power
by attracting Russia's support. They are using the fact that Russia
is interested in Armenia integrating into the Eurasian Union.
- The officials say that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is not discussed
in the framework of the talks concerning Armenia' integration into
the Eurasian Union. However, experts believe that it is the Karabakh
conflict which, among other issues, prevents a successful finalization
of this process. One of the proofs is that Armenian officials regularly
pay visits to the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. Do you believe that
it is Karabakh which is causing such a delay?
- I am absolutely certain. It is clear, however, that neither the
Customs Union nor the Eurasian Union are capable of resolving this
conflict either in the interests of Armenia or in the interests of
Azerbaijan. Still, recent visits to Baku by Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin and Speaker of
the State Duma Sergey Naryshkin show that bilateral relations have
intensified substantially. It means that no moves can be made without
coordination with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan needs certain guarantees
that the Karabakh conflict will be resolved. Only in such a case will
Azerbaijan be able to join such a large-scale economic project.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/58567.html
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 8 2014
8 August 2014 - 7:40am
The signing of the official agreement concerning Armenia's integration
into the Eurasian Union has been being postponed for almost three
months, despite the fact that the country has also met the necessary
conditions spelled out in the "road map". There has been no official
explanation why the process of Armenia's Eurasian integration is
taking so long. Some believe the reason is secret interference from
Azerbaijan, the unresolved status of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
criticism voiced by Kazakhstan and Belarus or internal intrigues in
Armenia itself. Russian Planet discussed the issue with the head of
the Caucasian Studies Centre of the Russian State University for the
Humanities, Ismail Agakishiyev.
- Why is the process of finalization of Armenia's integration into
the Eurasian Economic Union taking so long? Which issues have been
left unresolved?
- The situation is very ambiguous. During the meeting of the Eurasian
Economic Union's Supreme Council held on May 29, Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan said that the agreement concerning the country
joining the body would be signed by June 15. Then the leaders of
Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, as well as the Armenian president,
agreed to postpone it to July 1. Then another date was suggested -
July 3 (now the parties believe the agreement should be signed in late
October 2014 - Russian Planet). The reasons are twofold. First of all
there are internal debates in Armenia. In addition to that there are
some external factors. Speaking about the internal factors, I should
note that the opposition's struggle against the Eurasian integration
project is very strong. Speaking about the foreign powers, I have to
say that Western powers, who have always been supporting president
Sargsyan's political line, are now discontent with his choice.
Armenian experts are saying that even though Armenia is a part of
this game it does not really have a say in it. It means that Armenia
does not participate in the processes unfolding in response to its
Eurasian bid.
- Is it possible that the Eurasian Union will give up Armenia's
interests in order to secure Azerbaijan's membership in the body?
- It's absolutely clear that Russian would like Azerbaijan to be
a member of the Eurasian Union. In fact, Russia is interested in
successful cooperation with Azerbaijan no matter what integration
projects are being launched in the region. Moreover, Russia is
interested in Azerbaijan more than in Armenia. The reason is
Crimea joining the Russian Federation and the economic sanctions
imposed on Russia in response to its policy towards Ukraine. Western
countries are trying to isolate Russia, and Russia has to prove that
it maintains close ties with those former Soviet republics, which
the West is interested in cooperating with as well. Azerbaijan is
indeed such a state. However, the country's successful integration
into the Eurasian Union is hardly ever possible due to its conflict
with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku paid special attention to
Russian presidential aide Sergey Glazyev's statement saying that Russia
understands the importance of resolution of the Karabakh conflict for
Azerbaijan's integration into the Eurasian Union, which he made in
an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza. The remarks made by the Eurasian
Union's unofficial envoy to Armenia, Artashes Gegamayan, at the OSCE
Parliamentary Assembly held in Baku were also quite symbolic. He
said that Armenia's decision to join the Eurasian Union is well-based
and that the country would like Azerbaijan to be a part of the body
as well. In such a case the two countries would have a chance to
resolve the existing problems, he said. This would mean that from
now on Armenians will feel comfortable in Baku and Azerbaijanis -
in Yerevan, he said. Unfortunately the Armenians believed these words
were a provocation against Armenia.
Speaking about the Eurasian Union's possible readiness to give up
Armenia's interests, we first of all have to identify those interests,
the interests of the country which occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and seven
neighbouring districts of Azerbaijan. There were reports saying that
under Russian pressure Armenia has agreed to liberate the Agdamsky,
Fizulinsky and Dzhebrailsky districts so that Azerbaijan would join
the Eurasian Union. It is unclear, however, whether Azerbaijan will
agree to such a plan or not. Some believe the territories may be
liberated after a Russian peacekeeping contingent enters the region.
Azerbaijan, however, is not certain that such a move would be
appropriate.
- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said that Armenia will be
able to join the Eurasian Union only within its borders recognized
by the United Nations, which means without Karabakh, as it was during
its joining the World Trade Organization. Does this mean that Armenia
will be able to join the body only if it gives up Karabakh?
- Only the Republic of Armenia may become a lawful member of the
Customs Union or the Eurasian Union and not Nagorno-Karabakh. The whole
world recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. This means
that Karabakh may join the Eurasian Union only as part of Azerbaijan
and not Armenia. However, Armenia's integration into the body will mean
that the Union recognizes the country which has occupied Karabakh as
a legal member of the Union. That is what Kazakh President Nursultan
Nazarbayev is afraid of. What he meant is that Armenia will be able
to join the Union by July 1 if it resolves the Karabakh conflict. The
conflict is not resolved.
Speaking about the World Trade Organization, I have to note that
Armenia agreed to join the body in the borders recognized by the UN,
while Karabakh is outside those borders. This means it's an official
precedent. The Armenians thought that the Eurasian Union would
simply ignore the Karabakh issue. In fact the Armenian authorities
were telling lies to the people, saying that they would not give up
Karabakh. I believe they are trying to secure their weakening power
by attracting Russia's support. They are using the fact that Russia
is interested in Armenia integrating into the Eurasian Union.
- The officials say that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is not discussed
in the framework of the talks concerning Armenia' integration into
the Eurasian Union. However, experts believe that it is the Karabakh
conflict which, among other issues, prevents a successful finalization
of this process. One of the proofs is that Armenian officials regularly
pay visits to the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. Do you believe that
it is Karabakh which is causing such a delay?
- I am absolutely certain. It is clear, however, that neither the
Customs Union nor the Eurasian Union are capable of resolving this
conflict either in the interests of Armenia or in the interests of
Azerbaijan. Still, recent visits to Baku by Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin and Speaker of
the State Duma Sergey Naryshkin show that bilateral relations have
intensified substantially. It means that no moves can be made without
coordination with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan needs certain guarantees
that the Karabakh conflict will be resolved. Only in such a case will
Azerbaijan be able to join such a large-scale economic project.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/58567.html