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AZERI-ARMENIAN CONFLICT FEARS AS DEATH TOLL RISES
Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
IWPR Caucasus Reporting #747
Aug 8 2014
Rising numbers of casualties shake 20-year-old ceasefire agreement.
By Armen Karapetyan, Afgan Mukhtarli - Caucasus
Rising fatalities on the front line around Nagorny Karabakh have
raised fears that sporadic shootings may be tipping over into the
most serious escalation of tensions since full-scale hostilities
ended two decades ago.
The shootings occurred along the "Line of Contact" which marks
the boundary between Azerbaijani forces and Armenian-held areas in
and around Karabakh. (See Upsurge in Shootings on Azeri-Armenian
Frontier on earlier incidents both around Karabakh and on the
Armenian-Azerbaijani state border.)
The Azerbaijani defence ministry said this week that 15 of its
soldiers had been killed recently killed on the Line of Contact,
while the Karabakh Armenian military said it had lost five men. These
are large figures that would be more typical of a year than just a
couple of weeks.
Armenian defence minister Seyran Ohanyan has issued several statements
blaming Azerbaijan for the escalation, suggesting it was trying to
force the ongoing peace negotiations to go the way it wanted. A series
of tweets on Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliev's official account this
week said that the country's military now had the capacity to defeat
Armenian forces, and that Karabakh would be restored to Azerbaijan.
"We will restore our territorial integrity either by peaceful or
military means. We are ready for both options," said one Tweet.
"Just as we have beaten the Armenians on the political and economic
fronts, we are able to defeat them on the battlefield," said another.
"The weaponry and ammunition we have acquired in recent years suggest
that we can accomplish any task.
The situation is abnormal enough for United Nations Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon to issue a call to both sides to refrain from violence.
The OSCE's Minsk Group, the tripartite mediating body on Karabakh,
is also pressing for a de-escalation. On August 4, Ambassador James
Warlick, the group's United States co-chair (the others are from
France and Russia) urged Baku and Yerevan to end the violence and
called on both presidents to try to resolve the conflict. They were
supposed to meet in the Russian city of Sochi later this week.
Foreign ministers from the Minsk Group states had earlier met their
Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts in Brussels, without achieving
any apparent progress.
"The co-chairs expressed their serious concern about the increase in
tensions and violence, including the targeted killings of civilians,
along the Line of Contact and the Armenian-Azerbaijani border," a
joint statement issued after the July 22 meeting read. "They urged
the parties to commit themselves to avoiding casualties and rejected
the deliberate targeting of villages and the civilian population."
As well as clashes between armed forces, cross-border incidents have
also fuelled tensions.
Karabakh forces said they seized two armed Azerbaijani saboteurs
and killed a third after they crossed onto Armenian-held territory
on July 11. Shahbaz Guliyev and Dilgam Askarov were captured, while
Hasan Hasanov was killed.
Azerbaijan denied the three were engaged in subversive activity,
insisting they were just civilians who had crossed the lines to visit
the homes they lost when Armenian troops seized control of the area
in 1993 - a trip they had made many times before.
Karabakh officials claimed that before being intercepted, the
men murdered local shepherd Smbat Tsakanyan and army major Sargis
Abrahamyan, as well as injuring a 37-year-old woman, Karine Davtyan,
so badly that she lost an eye.
Kurdoglu Askarov, Dilgam's son, said it was absurd to imagine a
54-year-old man could be a military saboteur.
"My father was unable to accept the occupation of Kelbajar. He kept
saying that we should go back to our homes. We're from the village of
Shaplar, and my father used to go there to see his village and visit
his mother's grave," he told IWPR. "What the Armenians say about him
being a saboteur and killing a shepherd is all lies. He's been going
to Kelbajar for ten years."
Although Karabakh officials showed journalists videos and photographs
the men had taken as proof that they were spies, Kurdoglu Askarov
said this was nonsense.
"Whenever they returned, they would post the photos and videos they'd
taken on the internet. They've never killed anyone, so why would they
suddenly start doing so?" he asked.
Askarov said that although he had been born in Kelbajar, he had no
memory of it. Kelbajar lies outside Nagorny Karabakh, between it and
Armenia, so its capture early on in the war was a strategic win for
Armenian forces, but a catastrophe for the 50,000 civilians who had
to flee.
"I am 23 and I've lived as a refugee for 21 years. Who's committed
the crime?" Askarov asked. "My father, who wanted to visit his home
and see his relatives' graves, or those who occupied Kelbajar?"
Arkadi Ter-Tadevosyan, a former Armenian deputy defence minister,
dismissed claims that the men just wanted to see their old homes
as absurd.
"Crossing the border is extremely dangerous and only those who have
received specific training and have particular objectives would take
such a risk," he told IWPR.
Officials in Karabakh said the two captives would not be awarded
prisoner-of-war status, since they had not been in uniform and had
attacked civilians. Prosecutors said Guliyev and Askarov would be
charged with murder and sabotage.
The defence ministry in Baku insisted the men had committed no crime.
"No one can stop Azerbaijanis moving freely around these territories.
These people did not violate an international border, as the Armenians
claim. This land is recognised as part of Azerbaijan by the United
Nations," a ministry spokesman said.
Avaz Hasanov, director of the Society for Humanitarian Studies in
Baku, said he could understand why Azerbaijanis and Armenians alike
would want to see the homes they had lost and visit the graves of
their relatives.
"Sadly, no serious work is being done to return relations to normal.
That's why, when people are found visiting their homes, they are taken
prisoner," he told IWPR. "The Armenians say the captured Azerbaijanis
will be tried in court, and it's not yet clear where the case will
be heard - in Armenia or in Nagorny Karabakh. Either way, I doubt it
will be a fair trial."
Analysts in Yerevan say Azerbaijan believes that Armenia has been
left weakened by its rejection of an Association Agreement with the
European Union last year. The Armenian government is also concerned at
Baku's growing ties with Moscow, traditionally an Armenian ally. (See
Yerevan Angry at Russian Arms Sales to Baku.)
Nonetheless, Ter-Tadevosyan said he doubted that active hostilities
would resume. In his view, Azerbaijan "doesn't believe it can win,
and it knows Armenia could strike at its oil pipelines."
In any case, he said, "Since there are great powers in the region,
the question of war wouldn't be decided by Armenia or Azerbaijan
anyway. I don't think the world wants war."
Armen Karapetyan is a freelance journalist in Armenia, Afgan Mukhtarli
is a reporter for www.civil-forum.az in Azerbaijan.
http://iwpr.net/report-news/azeri-armenian-conflict-fears-death-toll-rises
From: Baghdasarian
Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
IWPR Caucasus Reporting #747
Aug 8 2014
Rising numbers of casualties shake 20-year-old ceasefire agreement.
By Armen Karapetyan, Afgan Mukhtarli - Caucasus
Rising fatalities on the front line around Nagorny Karabakh have
raised fears that sporadic shootings may be tipping over into the
most serious escalation of tensions since full-scale hostilities
ended two decades ago.
The shootings occurred along the "Line of Contact" which marks
the boundary between Azerbaijani forces and Armenian-held areas in
and around Karabakh. (See Upsurge in Shootings on Azeri-Armenian
Frontier on earlier incidents both around Karabakh and on the
Armenian-Azerbaijani state border.)
The Azerbaijani defence ministry said this week that 15 of its
soldiers had been killed recently killed on the Line of Contact,
while the Karabakh Armenian military said it had lost five men. These
are large figures that would be more typical of a year than just a
couple of weeks.
Armenian defence minister Seyran Ohanyan has issued several statements
blaming Azerbaijan for the escalation, suggesting it was trying to
force the ongoing peace negotiations to go the way it wanted. A series
of tweets on Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliev's official account this
week said that the country's military now had the capacity to defeat
Armenian forces, and that Karabakh would be restored to Azerbaijan.
"We will restore our territorial integrity either by peaceful or
military means. We are ready for both options," said one Tweet.
"Just as we have beaten the Armenians on the political and economic
fronts, we are able to defeat them on the battlefield," said another.
"The weaponry and ammunition we have acquired in recent years suggest
that we can accomplish any task.
The situation is abnormal enough for United Nations Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon to issue a call to both sides to refrain from violence.
The OSCE's Minsk Group, the tripartite mediating body on Karabakh,
is also pressing for a de-escalation. On August 4, Ambassador James
Warlick, the group's United States co-chair (the others are from
France and Russia) urged Baku and Yerevan to end the violence and
called on both presidents to try to resolve the conflict. They were
supposed to meet in the Russian city of Sochi later this week.
Foreign ministers from the Minsk Group states had earlier met their
Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts in Brussels, without achieving
any apparent progress.
"The co-chairs expressed their serious concern about the increase in
tensions and violence, including the targeted killings of civilians,
along the Line of Contact and the Armenian-Azerbaijani border," a
joint statement issued after the July 22 meeting read. "They urged
the parties to commit themselves to avoiding casualties and rejected
the deliberate targeting of villages and the civilian population."
As well as clashes between armed forces, cross-border incidents have
also fuelled tensions.
Karabakh forces said they seized two armed Azerbaijani saboteurs
and killed a third after they crossed onto Armenian-held territory
on July 11. Shahbaz Guliyev and Dilgam Askarov were captured, while
Hasan Hasanov was killed.
Azerbaijan denied the three were engaged in subversive activity,
insisting they were just civilians who had crossed the lines to visit
the homes they lost when Armenian troops seized control of the area
in 1993 - a trip they had made many times before.
Karabakh officials claimed that before being intercepted, the
men murdered local shepherd Smbat Tsakanyan and army major Sargis
Abrahamyan, as well as injuring a 37-year-old woman, Karine Davtyan,
so badly that she lost an eye.
Kurdoglu Askarov, Dilgam's son, said it was absurd to imagine a
54-year-old man could be a military saboteur.
"My father was unable to accept the occupation of Kelbajar. He kept
saying that we should go back to our homes. We're from the village of
Shaplar, and my father used to go there to see his village and visit
his mother's grave," he told IWPR. "What the Armenians say about him
being a saboteur and killing a shepherd is all lies. He's been going
to Kelbajar for ten years."
Although Karabakh officials showed journalists videos and photographs
the men had taken as proof that they were spies, Kurdoglu Askarov
said this was nonsense.
"Whenever they returned, they would post the photos and videos they'd
taken on the internet. They've never killed anyone, so why would they
suddenly start doing so?" he asked.
Askarov said that although he had been born in Kelbajar, he had no
memory of it. Kelbajar lies outside Nagorny Karabakh, between it and
Armenia, so its capture early on in the war was a strategic win for
Armenian forces, but a catastrophe for the 50,000 civilians who had
to flee.
"I am 23 and I've lived as a refugee for 21 years. Who's committed
the crime?" Askarov asked. "My father, who wanted to visit his home
and see his relatives' graves, or those who occupied Kelbajar?"
Arkadi Ter-Tadevosyan, a former Armenian deputy defence minister,
dismissed claims that the men just wanted to see their old homes
as absurd.
"Crossing the border is extremely dangerous and only those who have
received specific training and have particular objectives would take
such a risk," he told IWPR.
Officials in Karabakh said the two captives would not be awarded
prisoner-of-war status, since they had not been in uniform and had
attacked civilians. Prosecutors said Guliyev and Askarov would be
charged with murder and sabotage.
The defence ministry in Baku insisted the men had committed no crime.
"No one can stop Azerbaijanis moving freely around these territories.
These people did not violate an international border, as the Armenians
claim. This land is recognised as part of Azerbaijan by the United
Nations," a ministry spokesman said.
Avaz Hasanov, director of the Society for Humanitarian Studies in
Baku, said he could understand why Azerbaijanis and Armenians alike
would want to see the homes they had lost and visit the graves of
their relatives.
"Sadly, no serious work is being done to return relations to normal.
That's why, when people are found visiting their homes, they are taken
prisoner," he told IWPR. "The Armenians say the captured Azerbaijanis
will be tried in court, and it's not yet clear where the case will
be heard - in Armenia or in Nagorny Karabakh. Either way, I doubt it
will be a fair trial."
Analysts in Yerevan say Azerbaijan believes that Armenia has been
left weakened by its rejection of an Association Agreement with the
European Union last year. The Armenian government is also concerned at
Baku's growing ties with Moscow, traditionally an Armenian ally. (See
Yerevan Angry at Russian Arms Sales to Baku.)
Nonetheless, Ter-Tadevosyan said he doubted that active hostilities
would resume. In his view, Azerbaijan "doesn't believe it can win,
and it knows Armenia could strike at its oil pipelines."
In any case, he said, "Since there are great powers in the region,
the question of war wouldn't be decided by Armenia or Azerbaijan
anyway. I don't think the world wants war."
Armen Karapetyan is a freelance journalist in Armenia, Afgan Mukhtarli
is a reporter for www.civil-forum.az in Azerbaijan.
http://iwpr.net/report-news/azeri-armenian-conflict-fears-death-toll-rises
From: Baghdasarian