Tweet
IS PUTIN'S NEXT MOVE AGAINST AZERBAIJAN?
Commentary Magazine
Aug 8 2014
Michael Rubin | @mrubin1971 08.08.2014 - 1:20 PM
Azerbaijan is a key American ally. The only country to border both
Iran and Russia, it has angered both with its consistent efforts to
orient itself to the United States. While many Americans point out
Azerbaijan's democratic deficit, President Ilham Aliyev's strategy of
building up the middle class first has merit: To force reforms prior
to establishing a strong, stable middle class would play into the hands
of both Iran and Russia, neither of which care an iota about democracy.
As much as Azerbaijan orients itself toward the West, neighboring
Armenia has planted itself firmly in Russia's orbit. Indeed, Armenians
are perhaps the only people who would willingly vote to embrace Russia
rather than the West even if Russia did not lift a finger to influence
or force them. Culturally, Russians and Armenians have much in common,
and Russia remains Armenia's chief patron.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
erupted into hot conflict almost immediately upon the dissolution of
the Soviet Union and the regaining of independence by both states. In
December 1991, Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh declared their
own republic, one of those fictional states that the Kremlin has
helped prop up with increasing frequency--for example, Transnistria
in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and more recently
Crimea and Donetsk in the Ukraine.
Visiting Georgetown University Professor Brenda Shaffer is right when
she writes in the Wall Street Journal that "Freezing lawless regions
invites conflicts." Nagorno-Karabakh has become a center for money
laundering, weapons trafficking, and general instability. In sum,
it has become the typical Putin proxy.
With the West distracted by events in Iraq, it seems Armenian forces
in Nagorno-Karabakh sought to make their move against a pro-Western
ally which has moved to become an energy hub outside Russia's orbit.
Clashes began last week, and have escalated over subsequent days.
When it comes to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there's
a tendency by American policymakers to engage in moral equivalence
or simply to seek quiet, regardless of principle. This is wrong on
four counts:
First, while Western policymakers see diplomacy as a means to conflict
resolution, Russian Present Putin sees international relations as
a zero-sum game in which for Russia and its client states to win,
the United States and its allies must lose.
Second, whatever the emotional commitment many in the Armenian
Diaspora in the United States have toward Armenia and their desire
to seek acknowledgement for the events of a century ago, the fact of
the matter is that the Armenian government has repeatedly undercut U.S.
interests, even going so far as ship Iranian weaponry to be used to
kill American soldiers in Iraq.
Third, it's time the White House recognize that friendship and alliance
go two ways. We cannot expect Azerbaijan to so continuously align
itself with the United States and promote American interests if we
turn our back on its friendship in its hour of need.
And fourth, there is no longer any excuse to not see Putin for what
he is. No more Bush-era soul gazing, or Obama-era reset. That Bush
and Obama hardly reacted when Russian forces invaded Georgia surely
contributed to Putin's willingness to invade Ukraine. That Obama
fiddled and German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought to appease in the
aftermath of that crisis only encouraged Putin to move once again to
destabilize the South Caucasus, and its most consistent pro-Western
republic. If the United States does not stand up for Azerbaijan, then
Putin will understand that we are neither serious about freedom or
liberty, friendship or alliance. In such a case, beware Kazakhstan,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and even Poland.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/08/08/is-putins-next-move-against-azerbaijan/
Commentary Magazine
Aug 8 2014
Michael Rubin | @mrubin1971 08.08.2014 - 1:20 PM
Azerbaijan is a key American ally. The only country to border both
Iran and Russia, it has angered both with its consistent efforts to
orient itself to the United States. While many Americans point out
Azerbaijan's democratic deficit, President Ilham Aliyev's strategy of
building up the middle class first has merit: To force reforms prior
to establishing a strong, stable middle class would play into the hands
of both Iran and Russia, neither of which care an iota about democracy.
As much as Azerbaijan orients itself toward the West, neighboring
Armenia has planted itself firmly in Russia's orbit. Indeed, Armenians
are perhaps the only people who would willingly vote to embrace Russia
rather than the West even if Russia did not lift a finger to influence
or force them. Culturally, Russians and Armenians have much in common,
and Russia remains Armenia's chief patron.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
erupted into hot conflict almost immediately upon the dissolution of
the Soviet Union and the regaining of independence by both states. In
December 1991, Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh declared their
own republic, one of those fictional states that the Kremlin has
helped prop up with increasing frequency--for example, Transnistria
in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and more recently
Crimea and Donetsk in the Ukraine.
Visiting Georgetown University Professor Brenda Shaffer is right when
she writes in the Wall Street Journal that "Freezing lawless regions
invites conflicts." Nagorno-Karabakh has become a center for money
laundering, weapons trafficking, and general instability. In sum,
it has become the typical Putin proxy.
With the West distracted by events in Iraq, it seems Armenian forces
in Nagorno-Karabakh sought to make their move against a pro-Western
ally which has moved to become an energy hub outside Russia's orbit.
Clashes began last week, and have escalated over subsequent days.
When it comes to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there's
a tendency by American policymakers to engage in moral equivalence
or simply to seek quiet, regardless of principle. This is wrong on
four counts:
First, while Western policymakers see diplomacy as a means to conflict
resolution, Russian Present Putin sees international relations as
a zero-sum game in which for Russia and its client states to win,
the United States and its allies must lose.
Second, whatever the emotional commitment many in the Armenian
Diaspora in the United States have toward Armenia and their desire
to seek acknowledgement for the events of a century ago, the fact of
the matter is that the Armenian government has repeatedly undercut U.S.
interests, even going so far as ship Iranian weaponry to be used to
kill American soldiers in Iraq.
Third, it's time the White House recognize that friendship and alliance
go two ways. We cannot expect Azerbaijan to so continuously align
itself with the United States and promote American interests if we
turn our back on its friendship in its hour of need.
And fourth, there is no longer any excuse to not see Putin for what
he is. No more Bush-era soul gazing, or Obama-era reset. That Bush
and Obama hardly reacted when Russian forces invaded Georgia surely
contributed to Putin's willingness to invade Ukraine. That Obama
fiddled and German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought to appease in the
aftermath of that crisis only encouraged Putin to move once again to
destabilize the South Caucasus, and its most consistent pro-Western
republic. If the United States does not stand up for Azerbaijan, then
Putin will understand that we are neither serious about freedom or
liberty, friendship or alliance. In such a case, beware Kazakhstan,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and even Poland.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/08/08/is-putins-next-move-against-azerbaijan/