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A Not So 'Frozen' Conflict In The South Caucasus

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  • A Not So 'Frozen' Conflict In The South Caucasus

    A NOT SO 'FROZEN' CONFLICT IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

    Russia Today
    Aug 8 2014

    Published time: August 08, 2014 15:57
    Vahan Dilanyan and Vilen Khlgatyan for RT

    As the world is preoccupied with the events unfolding in Gaza and
    eastern Ukraine, another zone of conflict has flared up in the South
    Caucasus.

    The military attacks of the Azerbaijani army intensified in mid-July
    straining the status quo on the Line of Contact (LoC) between Artsakh
    (Nagorno-Karabkah Republic) and Azerbaijan as well as along the
    Azerbaijan-Armenia border.

    Between July 28 and August 2, five Artsakhi and twenty-five Azerbaijani
    soldiers were killed as a result of these actions. The numbers of
    dead are higher than all of last year's deaths.

    While both states were quick to blame one another, the fact
    remains that only Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated its intentions
    to restart the war in order to conquer Artsakh and force its freedom
    loving people to live under the Ilham Aliyev tyrannical regime. Only
    Azerbaijan has consistently portrayed Armenians as the evil 'other,'
    and only Azerbaijan has regularly refused to ease tensions on the
    LoC via confidence building measures such as removing snipers, or at
    the very least agreeing not to fire upon civilians farming near the
    border regions.

    The high numbers of casualties among Azerbaijani soldiers suggest
    that they are the attacking side. Moreover, a defending side cannot
    leave armaments and equipment on the other side's territory.

    The Azerbaijani policy of firing at the peaceful population living in
    Armenian border villages, as well as medical vehicles with the symbol
    of the International Red Cross, cynically violates core humanitarian
    principles, affirmed in the Geneva Conventions. Baku also sponsors
    and utilizes human resources to conduct sabotage and subversive acts
    within Armenia and Artsakh.

    Such a move could accelerate the growth of terrorism in Azerbaijan,
    where the irrational facets of the hatred culture serve as a basis
    for the development of a pathological cruelty that is at the root of
    terrorism. Stemming from low socio-economic conditions and homelessness
    in many regions of the country, Azerbaijanis are an easy target for
    recruiters of terrorist and radical extremist groups.

    Experience shows that there is an active link between terrorist
    attacks and a conflict zone, with the latter serving as a fertile
    soil for conducting such attacks. The large number of Azerbaijani
    nationals engaged in terrorist activities in Chechnya, Afghanistan,
    Pakistan, Syria, and recently Iraq, alongside the Islamic State
    (formerly known as ISIS) reaffirms this notion.

    The recent inhuman behavior by Azerbaijani saboteurs as part of an
    intelligence-diversion activity in Artsakh's Shahumyan district,
    resulted in the callous killing of a 17 year old Armenian. This
    is yet another example of the kill-mania of Aliyev's regime and the
    terroristic essence of the Azerbaijani party. An earlier expression of
    this was the hero's welcome given to Azerbaijani officer and convicted
    axe murderer, Ramil Safarov, who, during a NATO training seminar,
    hacked to death a sleeping soldier with an axe solely because he
    was Armenian.

    Encouraging further aggression

    Meanwhile, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairmen states (US, France,
    Russia) were quick to resort to their usual script of telling all
    sides to respect the ceasefire, refrain from violence, and look for
    a peaceful political solution.

    Infographics from emedia.am / Sedrak Lazarian

    What this policy of false parity generates is a sense of impunity for
    the Azerbaijani regime to continue to raise tensions, threaten war,
    and stigmatize Armenians in the eyes of their citizens, in other words,
    the exact opposite of what the Co-chairmen states desire.

    The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmanship also lacks (thus should be
    granted) a mandate to conduct investigations of incidents in the
    conflict zone, and requires more resources to prevent and condemn
    such aggressive acts.

    Additionally, the so-called Madrid principles of conflict settlement
    proposed by the mediators, which have been serving as a factor ensuring
    relative stability in the region, are much more unrealistic in light
    of Azerbaijani behavior both internally and externally.

    The recent spate of attacks coincides with Baku's crackdown on civil
    society and democracy activists. Most recently Arif and Leyla Yunus,
    and Rasul Jafarov were arrested on trumped up charges of tax evasion
    and treason.

    Official Baku aims to channel the unhappiness of its citizens away from
    its inept and corrupt rule toward the external enemy by escalating
    tensions against Armenia and Artsakh. Other than mild criticism from
    the OSCE, and the US State Department, no pressure has been brought
    to bear on Aliyev's regime for its increased authoritarianism.

    The reasons are obvious enough: the West needs Azerbaijan as part
    of its wider plan to weaken Russia's stranglehold on energy supplies
    to the EU, and fears that any criticism will drive Aliyev to seek a
    partnership with Russia instead.

    The planned withdrawal from Afghanistan also requires Azerbaijani
    support, since some NATO equipment will require transit through
    Azerbaijan.

    Moreover, since the West knows it has no chance of prying Armenia
    away from its alliance with Russia, it is not willing to expend much
    if any of its political capital to force Azerbaijan to behave.

    After all, the West prefers Azerbaijan's hydrocarbons to anything
    Armenia may have to offer them.

    The aforementioned resulted in the inclusion of Azerbaijan along with
    several other countries in a new US Senate bill called the "Russian
    Aggression Prevention Act" aimed at "preventing further Russian
    aggression toward Ukraine and other sovereign states in Europe and
    Eurasia, and for other purposes."

    If enacted the bill authorizes substantial increase of
    "military-to-military interactions" of the US armed forces with the
    ones of Azerbaijan "including specifically increasing the current tempo
    of military exercises and training efforts and exchanges" as well as
    "strengthening existing, bilateral and multilateral defense cooperation
    agreements including agreements related to cyber defense cooperation."

    The irony here is that the bill would encourage Azerbaijan to
    continue its aggressive policies, since it is the most militarized
    and warmongering party in the region, and the primary obstacle to
    the creation of regional security architecture.

    >From the other side, Russia, which is preoccupied with its internal
    economic situation due to Western sanctions, and the civil war in
    Ukraine, might be loath to see another conflict flare up so close
    to its borders. Although there is a possibility of the Kremlin
    stimulating these tensions in order to find a pretext to station its
    'peacekeepers' in the area, officials in Yerevan and Stepanakert have
    repeatedly and categorically eschewed such a prospect.

    Hence, at the end of this week, Sargsyan and Aliyev will meet Putin
    in Sochi. Although Moscow aims to control a region of its so-called
    "exclusive zone of interests" with only one meeting, nothing of
    substance for conflict resolution will come out of the Sochi talks.

    However, President Sargsyan must use the occasion to bring up the topic
    of Azerbaijan's militarization with a strong notice of criticism toward
    Russia's willingness to sell billions of dollars in armaments to Baku,
    and how this is directly contributing to a rise in bloodshed.

    Therefore Sargsyan ought to press for a halt in sales of weaponry
    to Azerbaijan.

    Nevertheless, tensions will remain high along the LoC with further
    escalations and incidents initiated by the Azerbaijani side. If things
    continue as they have, it is only a matter of time before one side
    miscalculates, likely Azerbaijan, and ignites a new round of war.

    Even if a rational war is not predicted, an adventurous one
    is likely. The situation could get out of hand as a result of
    misinformation stimulating policymakers within the Baku regime to
    remain belligerent and escalate the conflict.

    Due to the effective and accurate policy of Armenia's Ministry of
    Defense, which is releasing cautionary statements, holding meetings
    with foreign military attaches, ambassadors, and providing up-to-date
    information on the developments along the LoC, an appropriate
    information environment has been set for an Armenian counter-attack.

    Thus, if Azerbaijan continues to keep tensions high, the Armenian
    military response would be intense and unexpected.

    In any scenario the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen states, and other
    interested actors, such as the UK will bear as much responsibility
    as the instigating party. One cannot arm the aggressor on the one
    hand and expect peace on the other.

    Dr. Vahan Dilanyan is a recognized expert on regional security and
    conflict resolution. He serves as the Chairman of the Political
    Developments Research Center (PDRC), a think-tank based in Yerevan.

    Vilen Khlgatyan specializes in integrated strategy and national
    security with an emphasis in the geopolitics of energy. He is the
    Vice Chairman of the PDRC.

    http://rt.com/op-edge/179052-south-caucasus-conflict-azerbaijan/

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