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NAGORNO-KARABAKH FROZEN CONFLICT FLARES UP
Silk Road Reporters
Aug 8 2014
Published by John C. K. Daly
August 8, 2014
While Western attention remains focused on deteriorating
Russian-Ukrainian relations since the Feb. overthrow of Ukrainian
President Viktor Yanukovich, in the Caucasus tensions are rising in a
dispute between former Soviet republics that predates the 1991 collapse
of the USSR. Foreign powers have tried to negotiate a peaceful end to
the "frozen conflict" between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but beginning on
July 31 armed skirmishes have flared up along both Azerbaijan-Armenia
border and on the border of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azeri province
populated mainly by ethnic Armenians and now occupied by Armenia.
In February 1988, a shooting war developed between Azerbaijan and
Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which lasted until
May 1994 when a cease-fire was signed, leaving Armenian armed forces
in control of 20 percent of Azerbaijan including the Nagorno-Karabakh
region and seven surrounding districts. The rising violence saw the
Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (now the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe, OSCE) in the summer of 1992
create the 11-country Minsk Group with the aim of mediating a solution
to the conflict. The Minsk Group is co-chaired by France, Russia,
and the United States.
The conflict cast an estimated 30,000 lives, created hundreds of
thousands of refugees on both sides and left Armenian armed forces
occupying swaths of Azeri territory, which they retain to this day.
Despite the cease-fire, border skirmishes frequently escalate,
leaving both troops and civilians living on the border dead or injured.
The shooting began on July 31. Azerbaijan said two of its soldiers
were killed on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border in separate clashes,
while Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said that on July 31 Armenian
forces violated the cease-fire 96 times within 24 hours. The same day
Nagorno-Karabakh authorities said that two of its troops were killed
in an attack by Azerbaijani troops. Three days later, on August 3,
the Armenian Defense Ministry countercharged Azerbaijan of violating
the cease-fire along the frontline nearly 900 times.
Both sides report frequent shootings and attempted incursions along
the cease-fire line, but the latest outbreak of fighting is the worst
in many years. It is not immediately clear what set off the latest
violence between the former Soviet republics, with Azerbaijan and
Armenia each accusing the other of being the aggressor and claiming
to have repelled a series of attacks.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on August 4 that Russian
President Vladimir Putin will hold separate talks with Sarkisian and
Aliyev in Sochi, at which the current escalation of tension in the
conflict zone "may be discussed." Lavrov told reporters, "At the
end of this week, our president is due to hold separate meetings
in Sochi with the president of Armenia and then with the president
of Azerbaijan. When they all find themselves in the same place
and at the same time they will probably not avoid a conversation
on Nagorno-Karabakh. Just how that will be organized depends on
us. We will certainly be talking to our partners from Armenia and
Azerbaijan about what can be done by us, by the (Russian, U.S. and
French) co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to help boost confidence
and lower confrontation risks." However, Novruz Mammadov, deputy
head of the Azeri presidential administration, said in an interview
with Azerbaijan's ANS television channel the same day that there had
been no decision as to whether Aliyev will attend the meeting with
Sarkisian in Sochi.
Aliyev and Sarkisian most recently met in Vienna last November,
reviving hopes for a breakthrough in the protracted Karabakh
peace process and hopes for a summit, which instead was scuttled
by increased truce violations along the Karabakh "line of contact"
and the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, with each side blaming the other
for the violence.
The major issue now is to prevent the border skirmishes from
escalating, and there are signs that the Armenian government is
interested in defusing tensions. On Aug. 4 Armenian Defense Minister
Seyran Ohanian briefed journalists in Erevan, remarking, "The situation
on the frontline is tense. At any moment our neighbor may undoubtedly
organize provocations that could lead to war. But the president and
military-political leadership of the country are doing everything
to calm things down. The analysis of the last few days shows that,
broadly speaking, there is still no basis for a large-scale war."
As a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk group, it might be expected that the
Obama administration would become involved in international efforts to
mediate the latest flare-up. In a largely forgotten U.S. diplomatic
initiative, Washington's interest in resolving the Armenian-Azeri
impasse led the new administration of U.S. President George W. Bush
to convene a diplomatic summit in April 2001 in Key West, Fla., under
OSCE auspices between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azeri
President Geidar Aliyev. As with the earlier Minsk Group efforts,
however, the talks went nowhere.
But now Washington is focused on its larger disputes with Russia over
Ukraine. Seeking to caution Armenia from violating U.S. sanctions
policy against Russia over its Ukrainian policies, on July 31,
the same day that the shooting started, the U.S. Embassy in Erevan
stated, "We encourage all countries and their nationals to consider
the reputational risk of doing business with sanctioned individuals
and entities and cease business dealings inconsistent with the
sanctions that we and others have imposed," urging Armenia to avoid
doing business with Russian companies and individuals that have been
subjected to U.S. sanctions. Not surprisingly, the Armenian government
declined to comment on the statement. In a tepid display of U.S.
diplomacy, the US co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick
wrote on his Twitter page, "We are seriously concerned about the
recent upsurge in violence along the line of contact. The ceasefire
needs to be respected."
As for Moscow, the conflict was used by Russia as a bargaining chip
to retain influence in the Caucasus, liberated from Soviet control
by the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. As both Georgia and rising
petro-state Azerbaijan drifted out from under Moscow's control,
Armenia by default became and remains Russia's major Caucasian ally,
with Armenia set to join Russia's Eurasian Economic Union project.
Azeri website qafqazinfo.az, on Aug. 4 quoted Azeri army corps
commander Lieutenant-General Rovshan Akperov as saying that 71 Armenian
soldiers were killed and 80 were wounded since hostilities erupted
last week. The same day Arminfo.am reported Azeri losses as 25 dead
and 30 wounded.
As legacies from the Soviet era continue to unravel, Russia, the
OSCE and the U.S. have a vested interest in restoring stability in
the Caucasus lest the instability spread. Putin's move in inviting
Aliyev and Sarkisian to Sochi is a start; the OSCE should take time
out from developing new sanctions against Russia and engage with this
initiative on a similar level, as should the Obama administration. The
two countries have fought before; a second conflict two decades later
is in the interests of no-one.
http://www.silkroadreporters.com/2014/08/08/nagorno-karabakh-frozen-conflict-flares/
Silk Road Reporters
Aug 8 2014
Published by John C. K. Daly
August 8, 2014
While Western attention remains focused on deteriorating
Russian-Ukrainian relations since the Feb. overthrow of Ukrainian
President Viktor Yanukovich, in the Caucasus tensions are rising in a
dispute between former Soviet republics that predates the 1991 collapse
of the USSR. Foreign powers have tried to negotiate a peaceful end to
the "frozen conflict" between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but beginning on
July 31 armed skirmishes have flared up along both Azerbaijan-Armenia
border and on the border of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azeri province
populated mainly by ethnic Armenians and now occupied by Armenia.
In February 1988, a shooting war developed between Azerbaijan and
Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which lasted until
May 1994 when a cease-fire was signed, leaving Armenian armed forces
in control of 20 percent of Azerbaijan including the Nagorno-Karabakh
region and seven surrounding districts. The rising violence saw the
Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (now the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe, OSCE) in the summer of 1992
create the 11-country Minsk Group with the aim of mediating a solution
to the conflict. The Minsk Group is co-chaired by France, Russia,
and the United States.
The conflict cast an estimated 30,000 lives, created hundreds of
thousands of refugees on both sides and left Armenian armed forces
occupying swaths of Azeri territory, which they retain to this day.
Despite the cease-fire, border skirmishes frequently escalate,
leaving both troops and civilians living on the border dead or injured.
The shooting began on July 31. Azerbaijan said two of its soldiers
were killed on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border in separate clashes,
while Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said that on July 31 Armenian
forces violated the cease-fire 96 times within 24 hours. The same day
Nagorno-Karabakh authorities said that two of its troops were killed
in an attack by Azerbaijani troops. Three days later, on August 3,
the Armenian Defense Ministry countercharged Azerbaijan of violating
the cease-fire along the frontline nearly 900 times.
Both sides report frequent shootings and attempted incursions along
the cease-fire line, but the latest outbreak of fighting is the worst
in many years. It is not immediately clear what set off the latest
violence between the former Soviet republics, with Azerbaijan and
Armenia each accusing the other of being the aggressor and claiming
to have repelled a series of attacks.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on August 4 that Russian
President Vladimir Putin will hold separate talks with Sarkisian and
Aliyev in Sochi, at which the current escalation of tension in the
conflict zone "may be discussed." Lavrov told reporters, "At the
end of this week, our president is due to hold separate meetings
in Sochi with the president of Armenia and then with the president
of Azerbaijan. When they all find themselves in the same place
and at the same time they will probably not avoid a conversation
on Nagorno-Karabakh. Just how that will be organized depends on
us. We will certainly be talking to our partners from Armenia and
Azerbaijan about what can be done by us, by the (Russian, U.S. and
French) co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to help boost confidence
and lower confrontation risks." However, Novruz Mammadov, deputy
head of the Azeri presidential administration, said in an interview
with Azerbaijan's ANS television channel the same day that there had
been no decision as to whether Aliyev will attend the meeting with
Sarkisian in Sochi.
Aliyev and Sarkisian most recently met in Vienna last November,
reviving hopes for a breakthrough in the protracted Karabakh
peace process and hopes for a summit, which instead was scuttled
by increased truce violations along the Karabakh "line of contact"
and the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, with each side blaming the other
for the violence.
The major issue now is to prevent the border skirmishes from
escalating, and there are signs that the Armenian government is
interested in defusing tensions. On Aug. 4 Armenian Defense Minister
Seyran Ohanian briefed journalists in Erevan, remarking, "The situation
on the frontline is tense. At any moment our neighbor may undoubtedly
organize provocations that could lead to war. But the president and
military-political leadership of the country are doing everything
to calm things down. The analysis of the last few days shows that,
broadly speaking, there is still no basis for a large-scale war."
As a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk group, it might be expected that the
Obama administration would become involved in international efforts to
mediate the latest flare-up. In a largely forgotten U.S. diplomatic
initiative, Washington's interest in resolving the Armenian-Azeri
impasse led the new administration of U.S. President George W. Bush
to convene a diplomatic summit in April 2001 in Key West, Fla., under
OSCE auspices between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azeri
President Geidar Aliyev. As with the earlier Minsk Group efforts,
however, the talks went nowhere.
But now Washington is focused on its larger disputes with Russia over
Ukraine. Seeking to caution Armenia from violating U.S. sanctions
policy against Russia over its Ukrainian policies, on July 31,
the same day that the shooting started, the U.S. Embassy in Erevan
stated, "We encourage all countries and their nationals to consider
the reputational risk of doing business with sanctioned individuals
and entities and cease business dealings inconsistent with the
sanctions that we and others have imposed," urging Armenia to avoid
doing business with Russian companies and individuals that have been
subjected to U.S. sanctions. Not surprisingly, the Armenian government
declined to comment on the statement. In a tepid display of U.S.
diplomacy, the US co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick
wrote on his Twitter page, "We are seriously concerned about the
recent upsurge in violence along the line of contact. The ceasefire
needs to be respected."
As for Moscow, the conflict was used by Russia as a bargaining chip
to retain influence in the Caucasus, liberated from Soviet control
by the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. As both Georgia and rising
petro-state Azerbaijan drifted out from under Moscow's control,
Armenia by default became and remains Russia's major Caucasian ally,
with Armenia set to join Russia's Eurasian Economic Union project.
Azeri website qafqazinfo.az, on Aug. 4 quoted Azeri army corps
commander Lieutenant-General Rovshan Akperov as saying that 71 Armenian
soldiers were killed and 80 were wounded since hostilities erupted
last week. The same day Arminfo.am reported Azeri losses as 25 dead
and 30 wounded.
As legacies from the Soviet era continue to unravel, Russia, the
OSCE and the U.S. have a vested interest in restoring stability in
the Caucasus lest the instability spread. Putin's move in inviting
Aliyev and Sarkisian to Sochi is a start; the OSCE should take time
out from developing new sanctions against Russia and engage with this
initiative on a similar level, as should the Obama administration. The
two countries have fought before; a second conflict two decades later
is in the interests of no-one.
http://www.silkroadreporters.com/2014/08/08/nagorno-karabakh-frozen-conflict-flares/