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Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 9 2014
Karabakh's Guns of August
8 August 2014 - 9:05am
Thomas de Waal
More gunfire disturbed this unquiet summer over the last few days,
this time across the Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire line.
Reliable information is hard to find from the remote war zone around
Nagorny Karabakh. But information from both sides suggests that at
least 30 soldiers have died in the last few days--and perhaps many
more. Armenian sources claim thatfive Armenians and 25 Azerbaijanis
have died. An Azerbaijani general said that 71 Armenians had been
killed, while the Azerbaijani defense ministry puts its losses at 13.
That suggests there have been many more casualties on the front-line
in a week than in the whole of 2013.
The Karabakh front-line is the most militarized area of Europe. With
no peacekeepers there, it is mainly rational self-interest that keeps
the two armies of 20,000 or so men, backed up by heavy weapons, from
going back to war.
In the last 15 years, around two or three dozen people have died every
year in shooting incidents. This year, a number of factors, such as
deeper cynicism about the peace process and the continuing arms race
have made the situation much worse.
Armenia has lurched in a more pro-Russian direction, with the
country's course set on joining Russia's Eurasia Union. That may have
reinforced the belief in Yerevan that in the event of conflict, Moscow
will step in to defend its treaty obligations under the CIS Collective
Security Organization and come to the aid of Armenia.
For the last two months, there have been reports of more
Armenian-Azerbaijani cross-border clashes, some in border areas that
had formerly been mostly quiet, such as the one around Nakhichevan.
Many of the ceasefire violations are localized and uncoordinated, but
more serious incidents, such as raids across the line, could not
happen without political approval.
The Azerbaijanis make it their business to challenge the status quo,
make the other side nervous and remind the world of the conflict. That
is the most plausible interpretation for the last major outbreak of
violence in June 2012 which coincided with former secretary of state
Hillary Clinton's visit to the region.
However, the Armenian side is not averse to making a political point
either.Photographs of captured bulky radio equipment published this
week by Armenians suggest a raid on Azerbaijani positions. As
presidential official Novruz Mammadovpointed out, it is unlikely his
side ordered an offensive when both Azerbaijan's president and defense
minister were abroad last week.
So this latest violence may have been the result of a big Armenian
operation or counter-operation that came after numerous smaller
Azerbaijani attacks. Once fighting kicks off, of course, the issue of
"Who started it," rapidly becomes irrelevant.
On August 4, the centenary of the outbreak of Europe's "Guns of
August," the fighting subsided somewhat--hopefully because the killing
sobered both sides up. The two presidents, Ilham Aliyev and Serzh
Sargsyan, have been invited to Sochi on August 8 and 9 for separate
talks with President Vladimir Putin, although it is not confirmed that
they will meet each other.
Putin, of course, will have his own agenda at the meeting, which may
be just as much about Ukraine as Karabakh. Without a more substantial
peace process that the two parties can buy into, the violence is all
too likely to re-occur.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/society/58614.html
From: Baghdasarian
Aug 9 2014
Karabakh's Guns of August
8 August 2014 - 9:05am
Thomas de Waal
More gunfire disturbed this unquiet summer over the last few days,
this time across the Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire line.
Reliable information is hard to find from the remote war zone around
Nagorny Karabakh. But information from both sides suggests that at
least 30 soldiers have died in the last few days--and perhaps many
more. Armenian sources claim thatfive Armenians and 25 Azerbaijanis
have died. An Azerbaijani general said that 71 Armenians had been
killed, while the Azerbaijani defense ministry puts its losses at 13.
That suggests there have been many more casualties on the front-line
in a week than in the whole of 2013.
The Karabakh front-line is the most militarized area of Europe. With
no peacekeepers there, it is mainly rational self-interest that keeps
the two armies of 20,000 or so men, backed up by heavy weapons, from
going back to war.
In the last 15 years, around two or three dozen people have died every
year in shooting incidents. This year, a number of factors, such as
deeper cynicism about the peace process and the continuing arms race
have made the situation much worse.
Armenia has lurched in a more pro-Russian direction, with the
country's course set on joining Russia's Eurasia Union. That may have
reinforced the belief in Yerevan that in the event of conflict, Moscow
will step in to defend its treaty obligations under the CIS Collective
Security Organization and come to the aid of Armenia.
For the last two months, there have been reports of more
Armenian-Azerbaijani cross-border clashes, some in border areas that
had formerly been mostly quiet, such as the one around Nakhichevan.
Many of the ceasefire violations are localized and uncoordinated, but
more serious incidents, such as raids across the line, could not
happen without political approval.
The Azerbaijanis make it their business to challenge the status quo,
make the other side nervous and remind the world of the conflict. That
is the most plausible interpretation for the last major outbreak of
violence in June 2012 which coincided with former secretary of state
Hillary Clinton's visit to the region.
However, the Armenian side is not averse to making a political point
either.Photographs of captured bulky radio equipment published this
week by Armenians suggest a raid on Azerbaijani positions. As
presidential official Novruz Mammadovpointed out, it is unlikely his
side ordered an offensive when both Azerbaijan's president and defense
minister were abroad last week.
So this latest violence may have been the result of a big Armenian
operation or counter-operation that came after numerous smaller
Azerbaijani attacks. Once fighting kicks off, of course, the issue of
"Who started it," rapidly becomes irrelevant.
On August 4, the centenary of the outbreak of Europe's "Guns of
August," the fighting subsided somewhat--hopefully because the killing
sobered both sides up. The two presidents, Ilham Aliyev and Serzh
Sargsyan, have been invited to Sochi on August 8 and 9 for separate
talks with President Vladimir Putin, although it is not confirmed that
they will meet each other.
Putin, of course, will have his own agenda at the meeting, which may
be just as much about Ukraine as Karabakh. Without a more substantial
peace process that the two parties can buy into, the violence is all
too likely to re-occur.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/society/58614.html
From: Baghdasarian