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Karabagh Solution Stymied By New Cold War

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  • Karabagh Solution Stymied By New Cold War

    KARABAGH SOLUTION STYMIED BY NEW COLD WAR

    [ Part 2.2: "Attached Text" ]

    Mirror Spectator
    Editorial 8-16

    By Edmond Y. Azadian

    Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has not been conducting
    himself as the head of a country which was beaten back after
    initiating an aggressive war against Armenia and Karabagh, our historic
    Artsakh. Instead, he is threatening Armenians with a new war counting
    on the expansion of his country’s military. Some of his comments
    are outrageously threatening and bordering on the declaration of war.

    Recently visiting a military unit near Agdam, Aliyev offered some
    bellicose remarks to his soldiers, hoping that his threats would
    be heard across the border in Armenia and spread terror among the
    population.

    He specifically stated, “Today, the fascist leadership, the
    military junta of Armenia, is leading the country into an abyss. They
    have occupied our lands, but at the same time, they have occupied the
    whole of Armenia. The Armenian people should get rid of the criminal
    and corrupt leadership. Otherwise, huge disasters are in store for
    Armenia. If the Armenian fascist state does not give up its dirty
    deeds, the very existence of the Armenian state can be called into
    question.”

    This very much sounds as if Aliyev has borrowed it from the opposition
    leaders’ rhetoric in Armenia or from the mantra of its diasporan
    surrogates.

    When the enemy is at the gate, any similar statement by any Armenian
    is not patriotic, to say the least.

    But Aliyev also has his own rhetoric and does not owe authorship to
    any one else as he states: “Azerbaijan has been producing modern
    weaponry and equipment. At the same time, the equipment, machinery,
    weapons and ammunitions we purchase from foreign sources also meet the
    highest standards. The most advanced air defense installations have
    been acquired. Our army has the most powerful artillery. High-precision
    missile systems with great destructive power, combat and transport
    helicopters, combat aircraft, armored vehicles, tanks - all of
    those are factors that form the potential of the Azerbaijani army
    today. Today, the Azerbaijani army is capable of destroying any object
    in Nagorno-Karabagh.” Former Azeri president, Ebulfez Elcibey,
    made similar statement during the Karabagh war. That is why by the
    time of the ceasefire, most of the Azeri military hardware was in
    the hands of the Armenian forces.

    Not only that, Aliyev threatens to occupy “the Erivan
    Khanate,” including Zangezour, and eventually hoist the Azeri
    flag over “all the occupied territory, including Shusha and
    Khankhendi [Stepanakert.]”

    In an article in Outlook.com, Mark Dietzen, who is criticizing US
    Ambassador James Warlick’s unilateral plan to resolve the
    Karabagh conflict, also qualifies Aliyev’s statements in the
    following manner: “This is not the behavior of a losing side
    seeking reconciliation, but a losing side seeking revenge.”

    Indeed, Azerbaijan’s arms’ build-up has been alarming
    in recent years. Following its defeat at the hands of the Armenian
    forces, Azerbaijan launched an arms race to destroy Armenia’s
    economy. Funded by its oil wealth, Azerbaijan has been on a military
    spending spree, allocating $3.44 billion for defense in 2013. Its
    defense budget has skyrocketed by 493 percent since 2004, according
    to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Armenia
    has tried to follow suit, spending $427 million on defense, a
    115-percent increase from 2004, according to the same source. While
    Armenia’s spending is in the millions, rather than in the
    billions like Azerbaijan, the country does not have the all-important
    oil spigot to flood its coffers with money.

    Most of Azerbaijan’s armaments are supplied by Israel and
    Russia. Even if Israel does not harbor any hostility against Armenia
    itself, its geopolitical interests compel it to have a foothold
    on the Iranian border, since the Azeri government also has a bone
    of contention with Tehran, over the so-called “Northern
    Azerbaijan” province in Iran.

    The Russian Uralvagonzavod Concern just announced that it will send
    a new batch of military equipment to Baku at the order of Azerbaijan.

    In view of Azerbaijan’s declared hostility against Russia,
    one would be at a loss to explain, let alone justify, Vladimir
    Putin’s policy of arming Azerbaijan. In a recent UN vote
    condemning Russia for taking over Crimea, Azerbaijan voted with
    the US against Russia. Azerbaijan has also cut an energy deal with
    British Petroleum worth $45 billion to supply Europe with oil and gas,
    bypassing the Russian territory.

    It is believed that Moscow still entertains the notion of enticing
    Azerbaijan to join its Customs’ Union. It also has its own
    prospects for energy deals with Baku.

    Just this past week, the Russian cabinet approved Armenia’s
    accession to the Customs Union, though it is hard to see the
    cohabitation of two enemies in the Russian camp.

    Many people are alarmed and have been questioning the causes of recent
    border flare-ups between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Every time a summit
    meeting is planned between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan,
    the Baku government orders intensified attacks, hoping to extract some
    concessions from Yerevan at the conference table. This time around,
    those clashes sounded like the beginning of an all-out war. The Azeris
    suffered significant losses and withdrew. There were fewer casualties
    on the Armenian side, but in a war situation, the statistics always
    remain questionable.

    Armenia, in turn, raised its own war rhetoric. Reporting about the
    border situation to Armenia’s cabinet, Minister of Defense Seyran
    Ohanian concluded his remarks with the following statement: “I
    believe that they have fallen victim to their own lies. For years, they
    have preached to their people that they have a powerful army, that they
    are constantly rearming, that they are invincible. In this context,
    I must say that the Turk remains a Turk and we will act towards them
    according to the same rules that they wish to use against us.”

    President Serge Sargisian’s comments were equally harsh. When
    referring to Aliyev’s bellicose tone, he said, “Armenia
    has ballistic missiles that have a range of 300 kilometers and can
    ruin any city. If they don’t care about their own lives, if
    they are aiming at Yerevan, let them consider the consequences.”

    The escalation in tensions in the Caucasus cannot be viewed in
    isolation. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not alone in this game. The
    tensions in the Caucasus are the direct result of global power
    alignments. Although President Obama emphatically denied that
    instituting sanctions against Russia dance on the brink of a new
    Cold War, US actions in the world, supported by the European powers,
    are nothing less than the beginning of a new Cold war, with policies
    aimed at containing Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet empire,
    in a unipolar world, the US enjoyed the privilege of global hegemony
    and obviously does not wish to retreat from that position. Despite
    promises given to Mr. Gorbachev, however, the West has been expanding
    the NATO alliance to encircle Russia.

    As if reckless aggressions against Iraq, Libya and Syria had been in
    full compliance of international law, Russia’s annexation of
    Crimea has been treated by the US and its allies as the only violation
    of international law governing sovereign nations.

    For 20 years, Russia, the US and France were cooperating within the
    framework of the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and
    Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), but the US suddenly broke ranks and
    declared a unilateral policy to resolve the Karabagh conflict. That
    policy was enunciated by Ambassador Warlick, who has represented the
    US on the body, and later repeated by the US Ambassador to Armenia
    John Heffern. The new policy dissected the Madrid Principles to
    give an edge to Azerbaijan in the ultimate solution, but above all,
    introduced the element of peacekeeping forces on the Karabagh border.

    It was not difficult for analysts to conclude that under the guise
    of peacekeeping, the US is seeking a foothold in the Caucasus on the
    Iranian border, a foothold which will also doubly serve to encircle
    Russia.

    Armenia refused the offer of peacekeepers, even when its ally,
    Russia, intimated that it could send its own peacekeeping forces,
    because once Armenia cedes power to foreign forces, it surrenders
    its right to negotiate on its own.

    The most frequently-asked question recently has been who can win the
    war if events lead to that state. It is very difficult to predict
    the outcome. The result will be determined by the alignment of forces.

    Will Turkey participate? Will Russia intervene? There is more of a
    tendency in Washington for interventionism, especially when there
    may be a prize at the end to introduce a new wedge in the sanitary
    cordon around Russia.

    One thing is clear that Russia does not wish to lose Azerbaijan to
    the West nor to alienate Armenia, more than it has already.

    Therefore, the status quo is the best solution for Russia by default.

    And it looks like that has also been the outcome of the
    much-anticipated recent summit meeting in Sochi, where President
    Putin brought together Presidents Sargisian and Aliyev. We need to
    be reminded that there was a similar offer by the French president,
    Francois Hollande.

    But Putin took the first opportunity to bring the parties together.

    Aliyev’s pre-meeting maximalist stance that Armenia must return
    all occupied territories unconditionally was dampened. Instead, Aliyev
    played the UN card and accused Armenia of ignoring UN resolutions,
    after which Armenia’s president asked which UN resolution
    was honored by Azerbaijan itself? In the end, no party gave in and
    apparently Putin’s goal also was met. At the conclusion of the
    Sochi summit, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov summed
    up the conclusions: “The meeting was important. The presidents
    have confirmed their commitment to the principles outlined by the
    co-chairs of OSCE at the presidential level and those principles imply
    a necessity to seek a peaceful solution which respects the territorial
    integrity and the right of the people to self-determination.”

    By the way, the concept of “territorial integrity” means
    different things to different parties in the dispute.

    This means we are back at square one. Tensions may subside for a while,
    waiting for another cycle of cross-border shooting.

    Is the Karabagh conflict contained? Certainly not. It has merely been
    postponed to another round.

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