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NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT, STILL ALIVE AND DANGEROUS
AzerNews, Azerbaijan
Aug 15 2014
15 August 2014, 14:00 (GMT+05:00)
By Sara Rajabova
The recent escalation of tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan showed
that unlike what some politicians and experts say, the Nagorno-Karabakh
is not frozen.
The aggravation of situation on the contact line of
Armenian-Azerbaijani troops proved that any minor incident can lead
to a large-scale war between the two sides.
"The recent tragic events clearly underline the fact that the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still alive and dangerous," expert of
the Center for European Policy in Brussels, Amanda Pol said in an
interview with Day.Az website.
She voiced concern that the international community failed to recognize
the seriousness of the situation and the broader implications of a
possible new war for the region. "It also shows that after two decades,
we are facing almost unprecedented levels of animosity, distrust and
frustration. We are at the cliff edge and there is an increasing chance
of the conflict being tipped over into a fully blown war," Pol said.
She noted that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has never been a frozen
conflict, adding it is an active conflict and unfortunately claims
many lives each year.
Pol went on to say that the international community is well aware
that this conflict is not frozen yet, however, there is a problem
with mustering the necessary political will to change the current
format for resolving it.
Furthermore, she expressed dissatisfaction with OSCE Minsk group's
role in the conflict resolution, noting that the group needs new ideas.
Peace talks, mediated by Russia, France and the U.S. through the OSCE
Minsk Group, are underway on the basis of a peace outline proposed by
the Minsk Group co-chairs and dubbed the Madrid Principles. However,
the negotiations have been largely fruitless so far.
"Everybody is comfortable with the OSCE Minsk Group. But to a certain
degree, the group acts as a perfect fig leaf to cover-up the lack
of will to do more. I am not saying that the Minsk Group is to be
blamed for the current deadlock but at the same time as a format for
supporting the solution of the conflict it has become stale and jaded.
Over the years, its role has expanded as a conflict manger rather than
a conflict resolver. It needs to be shaken up and broadened with new
blood and ideas," Pol said.
She went on to say that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict needs serious
attention from the West's highest political level.
More than twenty years 20 percent of Azerbaijan's lands remain under
occupation; hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people and
refugees cannot plan for the future.
Pol said the current situation is not sustainable and one day it
would get out of control unless more measures are taken to bring
about a solution.
Tensions along the frontline were aggravated as Armenian armed forces
attacked Azerbaijani positions. Armenia began to escalate tensions
on the border areas on July 31. Sporadic fighting has continued ever
since. Fourteen Azerbaijani servicemen were killed and several others
injured during the clashes between two sides. Armenia hasn't released
yet the exact number of casualties.
The sudden outbreak of skirmishes sparked public concerns about the
possibility of launching a new war in the region.
Pol said she does not believe that either Azerbaijan or Armenia want
to engage in a new war.
She stressed that so far, they have been able to prevent military
clashes from spiraling into a fully blown conflict, however, "this
new incident shows that tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia are
red-hot, with frustration and anger sky-rocketing."
"There is an ongoing risk that they will be eventually no longer able
to "contain" these sporadic clashes and a new war will kick-off.
Nobody should underestimate what the outcome of a new conflict would
mean in terms of loss of life and its implications for the region. It
would almost certainly drag in - one way or another - the three big
neighbors, Russia, Iran and Turkey, possibly spill over into the
North Caucasus which is already a hot bed of problems and endanger
infrastructure including important energy pipelines," Pol said.
She noted that the international community needs to step up its
efforts to help bring an end to this conflict.
Pol further noted that the only way to stop the violence is to hammer
out a deal as soon as possible.
She said as in the case with other regional conflicts, there is a
need to make it clear that the ongoing occupation is unacceptable;
because it only aggravate the tensions.
http://www.azernews.az/azerbaijan/69656.html
From: A. Papazian
AzerNews, Azerbaijan
Aug 15 2014
15 August 2014, 14:00 (GMT+05:00)
By Sara Rajabova
The recent escalation of tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan showed
that unlike what some politicians and experts say, the Nagorno-Karabakh
is not frozen.
The aggravation of situation on the contact line of
Armenian-Azerbaijani troops proved that any minor incident can lead
to a large-scale war between the two sides.
"The recent tragic events clearly underline the fact that the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still alive and dangerous," expert of
the Center for European Policy in Brussels, Amanda Pol said in an
interview with Day.Az website.
She voiced concern that the international community failed to recognize
the seriousness of the situation and the broader implications of a
possible new war for the region. "It also shows that after two decades,
we are facing almost unprecedented levels of animosity, distrust and
frustration. We are at the cliff edge and there is an increasing chance
of the conflict being tipped over into a fully blown war," Pol said.
She noted that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has never been a frozen
conflict, adding it is an active conflict and unfortunately claims
many lives each year.
Pol went on to say that the international community is well aware
that this conflict is not frozen yet, however, there is a problem
with mustering the necessary political will to change the current
format for resolving it.
Furthermore, she expressed dissatisfaction with OSCE Minsk group's
role in the conflict resolution, noting that the group needs new ideas.
Peace talks, mediated by Russia, France and the U.S. through the OSCE
Minsk Group, are underway on the basis of a peace outline proposed by
the Minsk Group co-chairs and dubbed the Madrid Principles. However,
the negotiations have been largely fruitless so far.
"Everybody is comfortable with the OSCE Minsk Group. But to a certain
degree, the group acts as a perfect fig leaf to cover-up the lack
of will to do more. I am not saying that the Minsk Group is to be
blamed for the current deadlock but at the same time as a format for
supporting the solution of the conflict it has become stale and jaded.
Over the years, its role has expanded as a conflict manger rather than
a conflict resolver. It needs to be shaken up and broadened with new
blood and ideas," Pol said.
She went on to say that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict needs serious
attention from the West's highest political level.
More than twenty years 20 percent of Azerbaijan's lands remain under
occupation; hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people and
refugees cannot plan for the future.
Pol said the current situation is not sustainable and one day it
would get out of control unless more measures are taken to bring
about a solution.
Tensions along the frontline were aggravated as Armenian armed forces
attacked Azerbaijani positions. Armenia began to escalate tensions
on the border areas on July 31. Sporadic fighting has continued ever
since. Fourteen Azerbaijani servicemen were killed and several others
injured during the clashes between two sides. Armenia hasn't released
yet the exact number of casualties.
The sudden outbreak of skirmishes sparked public concerns about the
possibility of launching a new war in the region.
Pol said she does not believe that either Azerbaijan or Armenia want
to engage in a new war.
She stressed that so far, they have been able to prevent military
clashes from spiraling into a fully blown conflict, however, "this
new incident shows that tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia are
red-hot, with frustration and anger sky-rocketing."
"There is an ongoing risk that they will be eventually no longer able
to "contain" these sporadic clashes and a new war will kick-off.
Nobody should underestimate what the outcome of a new conflict would
mean in terms of loss of life and its implications for the region. It
would almost certainly drag in - one way or another - the three big
neighbors, Russia, Iran and Turkey, possibly spill over into the
North Caucasus which is already a hot bed of problems and endanger
infrastructure including important energy pipelines," Pol said.
She noted that the international community needs to step up its
efforts to help bring an end to this conflict.
Pol further noted that the only way to stop the violence is to hammer
out a deal as soon as possible.
She said as in the case with other regional conflicts, there is a
need to make it clear that the ongoing occupation is unacceptable;
because it only aggravate the tensions.
http://www.azernews.az/azerbaijan/69656.html
From: A. Papazian