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  • Thomas De Waal: "The Mediators Cannot Want Peace More Than The Parti

    THOMAS DE WAAL: "THE MEDIATORS CANNOT WANT PEACE MORE THAN THE PARTIES TO THE CONFLICT"

    Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
    Aug 15 2014

    15 August 2014 - 8:39am

    Experts had expectations that Russia would take the process of
    Nagorno-Karabakh settlement into its hands at the meeting of Armenian
    and Azerbaijani Presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev with their
    Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in the context of clashes on the
    contact line. The sides expressed commitment to continue negotiations
    to resolve the conflict. A British journalist specializing in the
    Caucasus has discussed the problem in an interview with Vestnik
    Kavkaza.

    What is your evaluation of the latest meeting in Sochi?

    Obviously the public part of it did not tell us very much. My main
    impression was: how little was said, how little detail there was in
    the public statements by the three presidents or [Russian] Foreign
    Minister Lavrov. It obviously achieved its first aim, which was
    to kind of dampen down the fighting on the ceasefire line, which is
    positive. But as for more details, more substance about mechanisms for
    preserving ceasefire or new commitment to the negotiating process. We
    did not hear any of them.

    Do you believe that there was something else said behind the closed
    doors?

    I am sure there were other things behind closed doors, particularly
    in bilateral meetings: Russia-Armenia, Russia-Azerbaijan. But I
    think neither side in the conflict really wants to commit itself to
    anything substantial at this point and maybe even President Putin is
    not interested in the details of the Karabakh negotiations. He also
    had his points to make he also wanted to play a role of a peacemaker
    for a day in contrast to what is going on in Ukraine.

    The latest proposal by the Minsk group, the six principles - do you
    believe they are acceptable by both sides?

    Clearly, they are not acceptable for both sides, otherwise we would
    have a peace agreement by now. These six principles have been on
    the table in one form or another since end of 2007, when they were
    called Madrid principles. So clearly they are the fundamental basis
    for negotiations. There are no other ideas on the table. However,
    I think, the problem is less in the proposals themselves, but just in
    the complete lack of trust between the two sides, the lack of will to
    have a proper peace agreement. They prefer to have a kind of imitation
    of negotiations rather than a substantial peace agreement. In other
    words, both sides are more or less happy with the status quo.

    If we look at the map we can see that most of the occupied Azerbaijan's
    territories are not in Karabakh. Do you think the time has come
    for Armenia to return these lands at least, and then discuss the
    Karabakh status?

    I think the point about these six principles is that they cannot be
    separated. So, if Armenia leaves the occupied territories, it does
    so in return for a kind of guarantees about status and sovereignty
    of Karabakh. Everything has to happen at the same time. This is why
    the Devil is in the details.

    Do you think that Russia and the US are doing enough to resolve
    the conflict?

    At the level of the Minsk group ambassadors they are doing what they
    can. But I think that the basic reality of this conflict is that the
    mediators cannot want peace more than the parties to the conflict
    themselves are extremely cautious. So there is only so much the
    mediators can do. And now, of course, we have an extra complications
    the mediators are also involved in a big fight over Ukraine, which
    again does not formally affected the Minsk process but certainly
    undermine the overall authority of the Minsk process.

    Do you believe that the people of Nagorno Karabakh should decide
    the future of this region and do you see the possibility for Azeri
    refugees returning to Nagorno Karabakh?

    I think, everything has to happen... Nothing will happen in isolation.

    Clearly, the idea of these basic principles is, basically, that
    Azerbaijan will get occupied territories around Karabakh, but the
    people of Karabakh get to express their right to self-determination
    in some kind of a vote. In the future there is right of return,
    including Azeris to Karabakh.

    So, when you are talking about the right of people to vote, to choose
    their future, you are talking about those who are living in Karabakh
    right now?

    I think, if there is a vote, it would need all present and former
    residents of Karabakh there. But, of course, since the Armenians were
    in the majority before, one can assume how the Armenians vote will
    determine the answer.

    What do you think can be and should be done at present to move forward
    to resolve the issue?

    I think, a lot can be done, obviously. But in practical terms,
    I think, it is time to look again at a mechanism to investigate
    violations of the ceasefire. It is very bad that the ceasefire is
    violated. And basically, we do not know what is going on. If there
    were more substantial mechanism to investigate the ceasefire, then,
    I think, less people would die. I think, it is a shame, that it is
    not being implemented.

    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/58824.html


    From: Baghdasarian
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