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Bayram Balci: Turkey's and Azerbaijan's accession to Customs Union
highly unlikely
15:56 23/08/2014 >> INTERVIEWS
On the prospects of Erdogan's presidency for Turkey and for the South
Caucasus region Panorama.am has spoken to Dr. Bayram Balci - visiting
scholar in Carnegie's Middle East Program and founding member of the
European Journal of Turkish Studies. Dr. Balci believes that there is
a risk for Turkey to become more authoritarian but that Turkey is
going to be interested in normalization of relations with Armenia. He
also considers the membership of Turkey or Azerbaijan in the Eurasian
Union highly unlikely.
- Dr. Balci, now that Erdogan has become the President of Turkey there
are legitimate fears that Turkey will increasingly become more
authoritarian, especially given Erdogan's stated intentions to amend
the Constitution to make Turkey a presidential state. What can be the
implication of a more authoritarian and perhaps more powerful Turkey
under Erdogan's rule for the South Caucasus region and for Armenia in
particular? Are the Turkish policies in this regard likely to change
in any way?
- First of all, indeed there is a risk that the new Turkey with
Erdogan becomes more authoritarian, because of the personality and the
charisma of the new President, and because he wants to change the
Constitution. But at the same time I am not sure that he will be able
to continue to run with such an arrogant way for at least two reasons.
The first one is that in fact his victory was a small victory and not
huge and impressive as it was predicted by many analysts. Some
analysts had talk about 57% of vote for him in the first round. The
second reason is that he knows that usually the President in turkey is
a sort of father of the nation and I think he will try to embrace this
now more paternalist function. Moreover he knows that he has now a
real opposition, since the Gezi Park and he cannot continue to defy
them eternally.
As for the South Caucasus and for Armenia, at this moment the South
Caucasus is maybe the only region where Turkish foreign policy is not
completely in a failure situation. And I think that this is a very
important issue that Erdogan will try to maintain. In the Middle East
Turkey's relations are good only with the Hamas, the KRG and Iran.
With Egypt, Iraq of Bagdad, Syria, Saudi Arabia these relations are
tense. I think because of this at least in the South Caucasus Turkey
will do its best to have good relations with Georgia, Azerbaijan and
will try to improve the relations with Armenia. Since the condolences
presented by Erdogan to the descendants of the victims of the
genocide, a term he did not use but this is however a turning point in
the relations between Armenia and Turkey. It will be difficult to have
at the same time excellent relations with Azerbaijan and normalization
with Armenia but I think that the new President in Turkey will do his
best to improve Turkish Armenian relations without antagonizing
Azerbaijan.
- In your article "Strengths and Constraints of Turkish Policy in the
South Caucasus" you speak about Turkey's and Azerbaijan's brotherhood
and long-standing goals to "recreate a solidarity based on
Turkishness, connecting all Turkish speaking nations". We also know
that historically Armenia has always been standing in the way of these
plans because of her geographical location. In this context is Turkish
current policy towards Armenia really "hostage" to Azerbaijan or is
Turkey pursuing its own strategic goals by suffocating Armenia
economically and by other means?
- I don't think that Turkey approves and believes that the strategy of
suffocation Armenia economically is the good one. Turkish leaders are
certain since the beginning that this strategy is not the good one but
the solidarity with Azerbaijan is inevitable because of the strong
support of Turkish public opinion to Azerbaijan, and also, and most
importantly, because of the important of energy issues for Turkey.
Turkey would like to open the border and improve its relations with
Armenia but because of these two topics it is not easy at all.
- What implications can there be for Armenia if Russia and Turkey go
on deepening their cooperation in economic and other spheres? Do you
see any possibility for Turkey or Azerbaijan to join the Russia-led
Customs Union in future?
- I don't think that good relations between Turkey and Russia can have
negative impacts on Turkish- Armenian relations. As for the Turkey's
and Azerbaijan's possible adhesion to the Eurasian Custom Union I
absolutely don't believe that this is a serious scenario. I think
Turkey is still more European than inclined to be member of this
Eurasian Union and in Turkey elites and population are not ready at
all to engage Turkey in such a direction. As for Azerbaijan and its
future possible adhesion to this Union, I think not only Azerbaijan
but a lot of post-soviet Republics in Central Asia and the Caucasus
are reluctant to join this Union. Since the invasion of Crimea by
Russian forces Putin has lost all of the little trust he had among
Central Asian and Caucasian leaders. Azerbaijan is very western turned
country and aspires to deepen its relation with the West. I don't
believe at all that it can be tempted to join an organization managed
by Putin who aspires to reestablish (at least he is perceived like
this) a new Russian hegemonic domination in the former Soviet Union.
http://www.panorama.am/en/popular/2014/08/23/b-balchi/
highly unlikely
15:56 23/08/2014 >> INTERVIEWS
On the prospects of Erdogan's presidency for Turkey and for the South
Caucasus region Panorama.am has spoken to Dr. Bayram Balci - visiting
scholar in Carnegie's Middle East Program and founding member of the
European Journal of Turkish Studies. Dr. Balci believes that there is
a risk for Turkey to become more authoritarian but that Turkey is
going to be interested in normalization of relations with Armenia. He
also considers the membership of Turkey or Azerbaijan in the Eurasian
Union highly unlikely.
- Dr. Balci, now that Erdogan has become the President of Turkey there
are legitimate fears that Turkey will increasingly become more
authoritarian, especially given Erdogan's stated intentions to amend
the Constitution to make Turkey a presidential state. What can be the
implication of a more authoritarian and perhaps more powerful Turkey
under Erdogan's rule for the South Caucasus region and for Armenia in
particular? Are the Turkish policies in this regard likely to change
in any way?
- First of all, indeed there is a risk that the new Turkey with
Erdogan becomes more authoritarian, because of the personality and the
charisma of the new President, and because he wants to change the
Constitution. But at the same time I am not sure that he will be able
to continue to run with such an arrogant way for at least two reasons.
The first one is that in fact his victory was a small victory and not
huge and impressive as it was predicted by many analysts. Some
analysts had talk about 57% of vote for him in the first round. The
second reason is that he knows that usually the President in turkey is
a sort of father of the nation and I think he will try to embrace this
now more paternalist function. Moreover he knows that he has now a
real opposition, since the Gezi Park and he cannot continue to defy
them eternally.
As for the South Caucasus and for Armenia, at this moment the South
Caucasus is maybe the only region where Turkish foreign policy is not
completely in a failure situation. And I think that this is a very
important issue that Erdogan will try to maintain. In the Middle East
Turkey's relations are good only with the Hamas, the KRG and Iran.
With Egypt, Iraq of Bagdad, Syria, Saudi Arabia these relations are
tense. I think because of this at least in the South Caucasus Turkey
will do its best to have good relations with Georgia, Azerbaijan and
will try to improve the relations with Armenia. Since the condolences
presented by Erdogan to the descendants of the victims of the
genocide, a term he did not use but this is however a turning point in
the relations between Armenia and Turkey. It will be difficult to have
at the same time excellent relations with Azerbaijan and normalization
with Armenia but I think that the new President in Turkey will do his
best to improve Turkish Armenian relations without antagonizing
Azerbaijan.
- In your article "Strengths and Constraints of Turkish Policy in the
South Caucasus" you speak about Turkey's and Azerbaijan's brotherhood
and long-standing goals to "recreate a solidarity based on
Turkishness, connecting all Turkish speaking nations". We also know
that historically Armenia has always been standing in the way of these
plans because of her geographical location. In this context is Turkish
current policy towards Armenia really "hostage" to Azerbaijan or is
Turkey pursuing its own strategic goals by suffocating Armenia
economically and by other means?
- I don't think that Turkey approves and believes that the strategy of
suffocation Armenia economically is the good one. Turkish leaders are
certain since the beginning that this strategy is not the good one but
the solidarity with Azerbaijan is inevitable because of the strong
support of Turkish public opinion to Azerbaijan, and also, and most
importantly, because of the important of energy issues for Turkey.
Turkey would like to open the border and improve its relations with
Armenia but because of these two topics it is not easy at all.
- What implications can there be for Armenia if Russia and Turkey go
on deepening their cooperation in economic and other spheres? Do you
see any possibility for Turkey or Azerbaijan to join the Russia-led
Customs Union in future?
- I don't think that good relations between Turkey and Russia can have
negative impacts on Turkish- Armenian relations. As for the Turkey's
and Azerbaijan's possible adhesion to the Eurasian Custom Union I
absolutely don't believe that this is a serious scenario. I think
Turkey is still more European than inclined to be member of this
Eurasian Union and in Turkey elites and population are not ready at
all to engage Turkey in such a direction. As for Azerbaijan and its
future possible adhesion to this Union, I think not only Azerbaijan
but a lot of post-soviet Republics in Central Asia and the Caucasus
are reluctant to join this Union. Since the invasion of Crimea by
Russian forces Putin has lost all of the little trust he had among
Central Asian and Caucasian leaders. Azerbaijan is very western turned
country and aspires to deepen its relation with the West. I don't
believe at all that it can be tempted to join an organization managed
by Putin who aspires to reestablish (at least he is perceived like
this) a new Russian hegemonic domination in the former Soviet Union.
http://www.panorama.am/en/popular/2014/08/23/b-balchi/