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NATO: Possibility to Supply Weapons to Armenia
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 30 November 2014, 14:38
Politicians and experts in NATO member states are interested in how
the Armenian society perceives the relations with NATO, the groups
which foster or counteract to development of NATO-Armenia relations,
the motivation and interests of different groups.
To what extent is the Armenian military leadership committed to
rapprochement with NATO? Are there differences in the opinions of
generals and the officer corps? What arguments do supporters of
rapprochement with NATO bring?
What proposals should be expected from Armenia: creation of military
units to participate in peacekeeping and other actions, training for
military personnel, implementation of military training programs,
development of new cooperation programs, receiving weapons from NATO
member states, foreign political support to the country, support to
the settlement of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, support to
normalization with Turkey?
NATO has a big interest in the Armenian policy on cooperation with the
alliance. The experience of NATO-Armenia cooperation is studied by the
defense ministries of leading member states, and experts are trying to
develop a model of cooperation with CSTO member states.
In this respect, Armenia holds a special position, which boosts
interest in it. For the time being, there are no final conclusions on
cooperation with Armenia but it is time to draw the necessary
conclusions and develop cooperation.
In order to supply weapons to Armenia the decisions of separate states
are needed because NATO lacks mechanisms for such decisions.
Therefore, Armenia must conduct a more active policy with different
NATO member states on this and other matters. NATO and several states
are interested in increasing the military capacity of the Armenian
armed forces because they consider this a factor of balance of forces
in the South Caucasus.
According to experts, NATO member states have sufficient information
on the threats of resumption of war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the
British ambassadors to the South Caucasus have always worked in this
direction, regularly collected information, checked previously
received information, embassies of other countries are constantly
sharing information.
Similarly, information is shared by foreign ministries and defense
ministries of NATO member states. Currently, it is assumed that risks
are high but not enough to expect military actions. Nevertheless, all
the leading countries of NATO and the European Union are worried about
the probability of a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
One expert thinks that the United Kingdom has a significant role in
constraining resumption of military actions. The United Kingdom is
interested in stability and security in the South Caucasus relating to
major investments, including in the nearest future.
Currently, there is not a detailed scenario of possible military
actions but it will definitely cause a big destruction, including of
oil infrastructures, cause long-term change of the situation in the
region and huge economic losses for the Western partners. On the other
hand, acquisition of considerable amounts of weapon leads to a
situation when restrictions are not useful.
Turkey has commitments to Azerbaijan but Turkey and Azerbaijan do not
have a clue as to how they will be implemented, and everyone hopes
that the developments will not end up in a direct military
intervention of Turkey.
It should be noted that the agreements are very important to
Azerbaijan in the light of problems with not only Armenia but also
Iran particularly when a more large-scale military conflict is
possible in the region.
At the moment, despite significant acquisition of weapons, Azerbaijan
is not ready for a war with Armenia and Iran all the more so. Turkish
intervention in the war against Armenia will indicate an unexpected
turn in the relations with NATO because it will be actually perceived
as aggression as defined by the UN Charter.
It is hard to assume that Armenia will go for aggression against
Turkey, therefore any intervention by Turkey will be considered
disproportionate. At the same time, there is no vision and plan of how
NATO will react to such a situation when the position of the alliance
will be depending on the policy of separate states, preferences for
usefulness of one assessment or another.
Big NATO member states understand very well the growing threat of war
in the South Caucasus and may only use political means of pressure on
the possible conflict sides, and are trying to direct Turkey's policy
in the right direction realizing the role and situation of Turkey.
NATO and its leading member states understand Russia's role in
constraining the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Now NATO cannot
guarantee security in the South Caucasus, as well as within its area
of responsibility because there are no such mechanisms.
Nevertheless, it is believed that NATO's reputation is an important
factor in preventing war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Furthermore, the war
between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not the only scenario of military
actions, considering Iran's position and tensions between Iran and
Azerbaijan that may be a more significant factor of war.
It should be noted that only the United States has a more or less
deciding role in the prevention of possible Turkish intervention, and
together with Russia is a key factor in constraining war.
Turkey will try to block the development of NATO-Armenia relations,
and Turkey has already tried to shift Armenia-Azerbaijan relations
onto the NATO arena to which some states disagreed. Nevertheless,
Turkey had to listen to them but it is not ruled out that in the
future it will try to take the real chance.
For the time being, Turkey cannot act directly against development of
NATO-Armenia cooperation but may benefit from other arguments. In this
respect, the interests of Turkey and Russia are totally in line.
The United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, as well as
Greece and Poland have a positive attitude to the development of
NATO-Armenia relations and are considering it as an important factor
of enhancing security in the South Caucasus.
At the same time, there are doubts that currently these states are
ready to answer the question on supply of weapons to Armenia because
they think that supply of weapons to the South Caucasus increases
military risks. Nevertheless, there is certain experience and it may
develop further.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33280#sthash.nZLmrwJ6.dpuf
From: A. Papazian
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 30 November 2014, 14:38
Politicians and experts in NATO member states are interested in how
the Armenian society perceives the relations with NATO, the groups
which foster or counteract to development of NATO-Armenia relations,
the motivation and interests of different groups.
To what extent is the Armenian military leadership committed to
rapprochement with NATO? Are there differences in the opinions of
generals and the officer corps? What arguments do supporters of
rapprochement with NATO bring?
What proposals should be expected from Armenia: creation of military
units to participate in peacekeeping and other actions, training for
military personnel, implementation of military training programs,
development of new cooperation programs, receiving weapons from NATO
member states, foreign political support to the country, support to
the settlement of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, support to
normalization with Turkey?
NATO has a big interest in the Armenian policy on cooperation with the
alliance. The experience of NATO-Armenia cooperation is studied by the
defense ministries of leading member states, and experts are trying to
develop a model of cooperation with CSTO member states.
In this respect, Armenia holds a special position, which boosts
interest in it. For the time being, there are no final conclusions on
cooperation with Armenia but it is time to draw the necessary
conclusions and develop cooperation.
In order to supply weapons to Armenia the decisions of separate states
are needed because NATO lacks mechanisms for such decisions.
Therefore, Armenia must conduct a more active policy with different
NATO member states on this and other matters. NATO and several states
are interested in increasing the military capacity of the Armenian
armed forces because they consider this a factor of balance of forces
in the South Caucasus.
According to experts, NATO member states have sufficient information
on the threats of resumption of war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the
British ambassadors to the South Caucasus have always worked in this
direction, regularly collected information, checked previously
received information, embassies of other countries are constantly
sharing information.
Similarly, information is shared by foreign ministries and defense
ministries of NATO member states. Currently, it is assumed that risks
are high but not enough to expect military actions. Nevertheless, all
the leading countries of NATO and the European Union are worried about
the probability of a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
One expert thinks that the United Kingdom has a significant role in
constraining resumption of military actions. The United Kingdom is
interested in stability and security in the South Caucasus relating to
major investments, including in the nearest future.
Currently, there is not a detailed scenario of possible military
actions but it will definitely cause a big destruction, including of
oil infrastructures, cause long-term change of the situation in the
region and huge economic losses for the Western partners. On the other
hand, acquisition of considerable amounts of weapon leads to a
situation when restrictions are not useful.
Turkey has commitments to Azerbaijan but Turkey and Azerbaijan do not
have a clue as to how they will be implemented, and everyone hopes
that the developments will not end up in a direct military
intervention of Turkey.
It should be noted that the agreements are very important to
Azerbaijan in the light of problems with not only Armenia but also
Iran particularly when a more large-scale military conflict is
possible in the region.
At the moment, despite significant acquisition of weapons, Azerbaijan
is not ready for a war with Armenia and Iran all the more so. Turkish
intervention in the war against Armenia will indicate an unexpected
turn in the relations with NATO because it will be actually perceived
as aggression as defined by the UN Charter.
It is hard to assume that Armenia will go for aggression against
Turkey, therefore any intervention by Turkey will be considered
disproportionate. At the same time, there is no vision and plan of how
NATO will react to such a situation when the position of the alliance
will be depending on the policy of separate states, preferences for
usefulness of one assessment or another.
Big NATO member states understand very well the growing threat of war
in the South Caucasus and may only use political means of pressure on
the possible conflict sides, and are trying to direct Turkey's policy
in the right direction realizing the role and situation of Turkey.
NATO and its leading member states understand Russia's role in
constraining the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Now NATO cannot
guarantee security in the South Caucasus, as well as within its area
of responsibility because there are no such mechanisms.
Nevertheless, it is believed that NATO's reputation is an important
factor in preventing war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Furthermore, the war
between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not the only scenario of military
actions, considering Iran's position and tensions between Iran and
Azerbaijan that may be a more significant factor of war.
It should be noted that only the United States has a more or less
deciding role in the prevention of possible Turkish intervention, and
together with Russia is a key factor in constraining war.
Turkey will try to block the development of NATO-Armenia relations,
and Turkey has already tried to shift Armenia-Azerbaijan relations
onto the NATO arena to which some states disagreed. Nevertheless,
Turkey had to listen to them but it is not ruled out that in the
future it will try to take the real chance.
For the time being, Turkey cannot act directly against development of
NATO-Armenia cooperation but may benefit from other arguments. In this
respect, the interests of Turkey and Russia are totally in line.
The United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, as well as
Greece and Poland have a positive attitude to the development of
NATO-Armenia relations and are considering it as an important factor
of enhancing security in the South Caucasus.
At the same time, there are doubts that currently these states are
ready to answer the question on supply of weapons to Armenia because
they think that supply of weapons to the South Caucasus increases
military risks. Nevertheless, there is certain experience and it may
develop further.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33280#sthash.nZLmrwJ6.dpuf
From: A. Papazian