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US Official News
November 26, 2014 Wednesday
Washington: Russia and the South Caucasus: A Situation the U.S. Cannot Ignore
Washington
The Heritage Foundation has issued the following news release:
While the U.S. and NATO are focused on Russian activity in Central and
Eastern Europe, there are three developments in the South Caucasus
that merit closer attention: (1) recent political instability in
Georgia; (2) possible Russian annexation of Georgian breakaway
territories; and (3) increasing tensions between Armenia and
Azerbaijan over the Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh. In all three developments, Russia's influence can be
detected behind the scenes. Although the South Caucasus is
geographically distant from the U.S., events there can have serious
ramifications for the transatlantic community. Events in the South
Caucasus can impact regional security, and by extension, America and
Europe's security. Therefore, it is in America's national interests to
keep a close eye on developments in the region.
A Strategic Crossroads
The South Caucasus sits at a crucial geographical and cultural
crossroads and has been strategically important for military and
economic reasons for centuries. This is particularly true for the U.S.
and Europe. The region, especially Georgia and Azerbaijan, has played
a major role in NATO's Northern Distribution Network for resupplying
troops in Afghanistan. Important pipelines transit the region carrying
oil and gas to European markets. As Europeans try to become less
dependent on Russian energy sources these pipelines will become
increasingly important. However distant the region might seem, it is
important and cannot be ignored.
Political Instability in Georgia
On November 4, Georgia's pro-Western defense minister, Irakli
Alasania, was fired by Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili after
speaking out publicly against the Georgian prosecutor's office for
charges of corruption brought against officials in the Ministry of
Defense. Alasania, who enjoys huge popularity in Georgia, suggested
that the charges were politically motivated. After his dismissal,
Alasania removed his party, the Free Democrats, from the ruling
Georgian Dream coalition. This led to other prominent Free Democrats
in government resigning their ministerial posts--including Georgia's
Foreign Minister.
Due to the divisive nature of coalition governments, and the
increasingly fractured political situation in Georgia, it is likely
that Alasania's dismissal was, at least in part, politically
motivated. Alasania's dismissal follows a string of charges by the
Georgian prosecutor's office against former government officials and
ministers, including the former Georgian president, Mikheil
Saakashvili. The U.S. State Department has expressed "concerns about
political retribution, particularly when legal and judicial
institutions are still fragile."[1] Even though Prime Minister
Garibashvili has maintained that Georgia is firmly committed to
Euro-Atlantic integration, Alasania's dismissal is a blow to those who
seek closer ties with the West.
Another Annexation by Russia?
South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared independence from Georgia in 1990
and 1999, respectively. Since the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia,
Russia has occupied both with military forces. Today, Russia is one of
only four countries that recognize their independence (the others
being Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Nauru). By contrast, many European
countries and the United States recognize the Russian presence in
South Ossetia and Abkhazia as an illegal occupation.
In November, Russia and Abkhazia signed a treaty on "alliance and
strategic partnership"--written by officials in Moscow. Among other
things, it calls for a coordinated foreign policy, the creation of a
"common security and defense space" between Russia and Abkhazia, and
the implementation of a streamlined process for Abkhazians to receive
Russian citizenship.[2] The Georgian Foreign Ministry criticized the
treaty as a step toward "annexation of Georgia's occupied
territories."[3] South Ossetia and Russia reportedly agreed to a
similar document in November.[4] These agreements are the first step
in a process of Russian annexation of both breakaway regions--both of
which are still internationally recognized to be part of Georgia.
Considering Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea, Georgians have a
cause for concern.
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Heating Up
The current Nagorno-Karabakh conflict started in 1988 when Armenia
made territorial claims to Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous
oblast. Even though there have been multiple calls from the
international community for them to withdraw their forces, Armenia and
Armenia-backed militias continue to occupy 20 percent of what is
internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan's territory. A
cease-fire agreement was signed in 1994 but the conflict remains
unresolved.
In the past several weeks, fighting in the region has been increasing.
More than 20 soldiers have been killed since August alone--15 of whom
were Azerbaijani. On November 12, a Karabakh attack helicopter was
shot down by Azerbaijani forces. This was the first time a military
aircraft has been shot down in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in at least
20 years. If these cease-fire violations turn into a full- blown war,
the spillover effect could disrupt oil and gas pipelines--which at
their closest point are only eight miles from the cease-fire line--and
bring instability to neighboring Georgia.
Instability in the Nagorno-Karabakh region benefits Moscow because it
allows the Russian regime to leverage its influence--especially in
Armenia. Armenia's coziness with Moscow is worth noting. Armenia has
recently expressed interest in joining the Russian-led Eurasian
Economic Union. In 2010, Armenia renewed an agreement to host a large
Russian military base until 2044, and Russian troops patrol Armenia's
borders with Turkey and Iran. Armenia even voted with Russia in the
U.N. General Assembly regarding the annexation of Crimea. Regarding
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in 2013, the commander of Russian
forces in Armenia said in an interview: "If Azerbaijan decides to
restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh by force, the [Russian]
military base may join in the armed conflict in accordance with the
Russian Federation's obligations within the framework of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization."[5]
The Region Needs Stability
Due to the geostrategic importance of the South Caucasus, and Russia's
new role in the region, the U.S. cannot afford to ignore the latest
political and security developments there. The U.S. should:
Encourage Georgia to stay on the path to joining the transatlantic
community. The U.S., working with allies in Europe, should continue to
show Georgia that its future is brighter in the transatlantic
community than it is with Russia. Irakli Alasania's dismissal from the
defense post, and his withdrawal of the Free Democrats from the
Georgian Dream coalition, is a serious setback to Georgians who
support closer ties with the West.
Increase targeted economic sanctions if either Abkhazia or South
Ossetia is annexed by Russia. The U.S. should make it very clear to
Russia that annexation of either of the breakaway provinces will
trigger stronger economic sanctions that target key Russian officials.
The U.S. should start now to develop a strategy with its European
partners to prepare for this eventuality.
Monitor the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia's close ties
with Russia. Peace talks over Nagorno-Karabakh have been stalled for
years and there is very little the U.S. can do to bring the parties
back to the negotiating table. However, remaining silent on the matter
offers implicit approval of the status quo. The U.S. should continue
to call for a peaceful solution to the conflict that includes the
withdrawal of Armenian forces from all Azerbaijani territories.
The U.S. Cannot Ignore the South Caucasus
Moscow continues to take advantage of ethnic divisions and tensions in
the South Caucasus to advance pro-Russian policies that are often at
odds with, or even worse threaten, America or NATO's interests in the
region. While the South Caucasus might seem distant to many American
policymakers, any spillover from ongoing and potential conflicts in
the region can affect the United States and its security interests.
The U.S. ignores the South Caucasus at its own peril.
November 26, 2014 Wednesday
Washington: Russia and the South Caucasus: A Situation the U.S. Cannot Ignore
Washington
The Heritage Foundation has issued the following news release:
While the U.S. and NATO are focused on Russian activity in Central and
Eastern Europe, there are three developments in the South Caucasus
that merit closer attention: (1) recent political instability in
Georgia; (2) possible Russian annexation of Georgian breakaway
territories; and (3) increasing tensions between Armenia and
Azerbaijan over the Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh. In all three developments, Russia's influence can be
detected behind the scenes. Although the South Caucasus is
geographically distant from the U.S., events there can have serious
ramifications for the transatlantic community. Events in the South
Caucasus can impact regional security, and by extension, America and
Europe's security. Therefore, it is in America's national interests to
keep a close eye on developments in the region.
A Strategic Crossroads
The South Caucasus sits at a crucial geographical and cultural
crossroads and has been strategically important for military and
economic reasons for centuries. This is particularly true for the U.S.
and Europe. The region, especially Georgia and Azerbaijan, has played
a major role in NATO's Northern Distribution Network for resupplying
troops in Afghanistan. Important pipelines transit the region carrying
oil and gas to European markets. As Europeans try to become less
dependent on Russian energy sources these pipelines will become
increasingly important. However distant the region might seem, it is
important and cannot be ignored.
Political Instability in Georgia
On November 4, Georgia's pro-Western defense minister, Irakli
Alasania, was fired by Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili after
speaking out publicly against the Georgian prosecutor's office for
charges of corruption brought against officials in the Ministry of
Defense. Alasania, who enjoys huge popularity in Georgia, suggested
that the charges were politically motivated. After his dismissal,
Alasania removed his party, the Free Democrats, from the ruling
Georgian Dream coalition. This led to other prominent Free Democrats
in government resigning their ministerial posts--including Georgia's
Foreign Minister.
Due to the divisive nature of coalition governments, and the
increasingly fractured political situation in Georgia, it is likely
that Alasania's dismissal was, at least in part, politically
motivated. Alasania's dismissal follows a string of charges by the
Georgian prosecutor's office against former government officials and
ministers, including the former Georgian president, Mikheil
Saakashvili. The U.S. State Department has expressed "concerns about
political retribution, particularly when legal and judicial
institutions are still fragile."[1] Even though Prime Minister
Garibashvili has maintained that Georgia is firmly committed to
Euro-Atlantic integration, Alasania's dismissal is a blow to those who
seek closer ties with the West.
Another Annexation by Russia?
South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared independence from Georgia in 1990
and 1999, respectively. Since the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia,
Russia has occupied both with military forces. Today, Russia is one of
only four countries that recognize their independence (the others
being Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Nauru). By contrast, many European
countries and the United States recognize the Russian presence in
South Ossetia and Abkhazia as an illegal occupation.
In November, Russia and Abkhazia signed a treaty on "alliance and
strategic partnership"--written by officials in Moscow. Among other
things, it calls for a coordinated foreign policy, the creation of a
"common security and defense space" between Russia and Abkhazia, and
the implementation of a streamlined process for Abkhazians to receive
Russian citizenship.[2] The Georgian Foreign Ministry criticized the
treaty as a step toward "annexation of Georgia's occupied
territories."[3] South Ossetia and Russia reportedly agreed to a
similar document in November.[4] These agreements are the first step
in a process of Russian annexation of both breakaway regions--both of
which are still internationally recognized to be part of Georgia.
Considering Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea, Georgians have a
cause for concern.
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Heating Up
The current Nagorno-Karabakh conflict started in 1988 when Armenia
made territorial claims to Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous
oblast. Even though there have been multiple calls from the
international community for them to withdraw their forces, Armenia and
Armenia-backed militias continue to occupy 20 percent of what is
internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan's territory. A
cease-fire agreement was signed in 1994 but the conflict remains
unresolved.
In the past several weeks, fighting in the region has been increasing.
More than 20 soldiers have been killed since August alone--15 of whom
were Azerbaijani. On November 12, a Karabakh attack helicopter was
shot down by Azerbaijani forces. This was the first time a military
aircraft has been shot down in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in at least
20 years. If these cease-fire violations turn into a full- blown war,
the spillover effect could disrupt oil and gas pipelines--which at
their closest point are only eight miles from the cease-fire line--and
bring instability to neighboring Georgia.
Instability in the Nagorno-Karabakh region benefits Moscow because it
allows the Russian regime to leverage its influence--especially in
Armenia. Armenia's coziness with Moscow is worth noting. Armenia has
recently expressed interest in joining the Russian-led Eurasian
Economic Union. In 2010, Armenia renewed an agreement to host a large
Russian military base until 2044, and Russian troops patrol Armenia's
borders with Turkey and Iran. Armenia even voted with Russia in the
U.N. General Assembly regarding the annexation of Crimea. Regarding
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in 2013, the commander of Russian
forces in Armenia said in an interview: "If Azerbaijan decides to
restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh by force, the [Russian]
military base may join in the armed conflict in accordance with the
Russian Federation's obligations within the framework of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization."[5]
The Region Needs Stability
Due to the geostrategic importance of the South Caucasus, and Russia's
new role in the region, the U.S. cannot afford to ignore the latest
political and security developments there. The U.S. should:
Encourage Georgia to stay on the path to joining the transatlantic
community. The U.S., working with allies in Europe, should continue to
show Georgia that its future is brighter in the transatlantic
community than it is with Russia. Irakli Alasania's dismissal from the
defense post, and his withdrawal of the Free Democrats from the
Georgian Dream coalition, is a serious setback to Georgians who
support closer ties with the West.
Increase targeted economic sanctions if either Abkhazia or South
Ossetia is annexed by Russia. The U.S. should make it very clear to
Russia that annexation of either of the breakaway provinces will
trigger stronger economic sanctions that target key Russian officials.
The U.S. should start now to develop a strategy with its European
partners to prepare for this eventuality.
Monitor the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia's close ties
with Russia. Peace talks over Nagorno-Karabakh have been stalled for
years and there is very little the U.S. can do to bring the parties
back to the negotiating table. However, remaining silent on the matter
offers implicit approval of the status quo. The U.S. should continue
to call for a peaceful solution to the conflict that includes the
withdrawal of Armenian forces from all Azerbaijani territories.
The U.S. Cannot Ignore the South Caucasus
Moscow continues to take advantage of ethnic divisions and tensions in
the South Caucasus to advance pro-Russian policies that are often at
odds with, or even worse threaten, America or NATO's interests in the
region. While the South Caucasus might seem distant to many American
policymakers, any spillover from ongoing and potential conflicts in
the region can affect the United States and its security interests.
The U.S. ignores the South Caucasus at its own peril.