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AGHASI YENOKYAN: RUSSIA-ABKHAZIA TREATY IS IN EURASIAN UNION SPIRIT
ArmInfo's interview with Aghasi Yenokyan, Head of the Armenian Center
for Political and International Relations
by David Stepanyan
Tuesday, December 2, 12:57
Despite the latest Russian-Abkhaz agreement on strategic
partnership and Russian President Vladimir Putin's hints that it
is necessary to re-launch the Abkhaz railway section to restore
the railway communication with Armenia, many experts believe that
the Russian-Abkhazian treaty has shot down that project. What is
your opinion?
The given document will probably increase tension in the
Russian-Georgian relations. This scenario may be prevented only in
case if pro-Russian forces continue to gain power in Georgia. There are
such prospects given the latest changes in the Georgian Government. On
the other hand, along with technical problems there is another, a
very important question connected with reactivation of the Abkhazian
section of the railway i.e. where the will be the Georgian border
and the customs point. The railway will not be reactivated, unless
this question gets an answer. Given that the new treaty between
Abkhazia and Russia implies a border between Abkhazia and Georgia,
the incumbent authorities in Georgia will never agree to it.
Well, what were the reasons of such statement by the Russian president?
Russia's policy is a PR by 80% today. For instance, the treaty with
Abkhazia was a serious step, in this view. In fact, that treaty will
bring nothing essential either to Abhkazia or to Russia. Neither it
will be useful for a third party. It was a treaty in the Eurasian Union
spirit. At present, parallel to the events in Ukraine, Moscow is trying
to develop certain events in other regions too. Look at the changes in
the government of Georgia and the recent escalation of situation at
the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. In fact, we see the most important
in the Kremlin's policy - everything has been developing in Ukraine
not the way Vladimir Putin wanted. And this should be compensated by
acquisitions in other places. On the other hand, these acquisitions,
as Putin thinks, are called to compensate the failure in Ukraine.
Do you mean that resignation of Irakli Alasania and his ministers
was a result of the Kremlin's lobby?
Not everything is clear in what has recently happened in Georgia. One
thing is clear that rather prominent men in Georgia have left the
government, and not so much prominent ones have remained. Nobody
knows why the men having a strict pro-Western orientation have left
the government. So, it is quite natural that the new government has
got all the chances for turning the vector of the Georgian foreign
policy towards Russia. The main property of the "secretary general"
of the Georgian authorities is in Russia with all the consequences
stemming from that for him and Georgia.
You talked about Ivanishvili's loyalty to, let's say, Russian value
system. Isn't it a factor for future de-blockading of Georgia's border
with Abkhazia?
I don't think so. With Bidzina Ivanishvili being adherent to Russian
values, Armenia can hardly hope for Georgia reopening its border with
Abkhazia as this is against Russia's interests. In Moscow they are
not interested in Armenia's economic development. They need blockaded
Armenia for if Armenia had a link with Russia, it would ignore the
blockade and there would be no more Armenian-Turkish problem. Russia
needs an Armenia constantly feeling a threat from Turkey.
Could you comment on the current stage of the Ukraine crisis? I
don't mean the military actions. What are your forecasts of further
developments?
Russia has begun to panic after Petro Poroshenko's decision to stop
financing Donbass. This has put the Russians into a kind of zugzwang.
On the other hand, growing corruption in Kyiv may well lead to further
Russian expansion and even new elections.
Despite the failure of the latest round of negotiations of Iran and
six world powers on the Iranian nuclear problem, Tehran's entry to the
world market is, sure, able to provoke a reduction of the Russian gas
and oil prices. What holds the West from using "the Iranian playcard"?
Is it Russia's stand?
In the current situation that has arisen due to both Russia's stand
and the latest steps of the Islamic State, Iran has turned into a
natural ally of the West. However, the capacities of that natural ally
still remain as a potential. The problem is the West's aspiration to
save its face in the policy regarding Iran. Tehran also has a similar
problem. This explains the difficult course of the negotiations on
the nuclear problem. Nevertheless, given that the talks have not been
stopped and have even led to some elements of lifting the blockade
from Iran, the prospects are quite encouraging.
Armenia's import-oriented economy will face a problem with
compatibility of iots customs regime with the EEU criteria already
in 2016. How will they settle that problem, if they do it at all?
The key problem Armenia will face in the Eurasian Economic Union is
that this is a way to nowhere. The last restrictions imposed by Russia
on some foodstuffs from Belarus have proved that this structure is
not serving its purposes. So, it is early to say how things will be in
Armenia in 2016, simply, because it is not yet clear how things will
be in Russia. In this light, I have certain doubts about the future of
the Eurasian Economic Union. Putin is losing authority in Russia. He
has no more bread and circuses to offer to his people. Nationalism
is not effective any more, so, he may need a new conflict in the
post-Soviet area so as to boost the morale of the Russians. This may
have quite unpredictable consequences but Putin no longer cares. What
he needs today is an event rather than a solution to it.
A rhetorical question arises as to whether Armenia is controlled by
internal or external forces?
Armenia is controlled by both internal and external forces. Th degree
of self-rule of any country depends first of all on the legitimacy of
the country's authorities and on its place in foreign interests and
capability to resist the foreign challenges. Today the legitimacy of
the Armenian authorities leaves much to be desired. The country is
involved in the zone of vital interests for Russia.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=B0FAFA90-7A09-11E4-974D0EB7C0D21663
ArmInfo's interview with Aghasi Yenokyan, Head of the Armenian Center
for Political and International Relations
by David Stepanyan
Tuesday, December 2, 12:57
Despite the latest Russian-Abkhaz agreement on strategic
partnership and Russian President Vladimir Putin's hints that it
is necessary to re-launch the Abkhaz railway section to restore
the railway communication with Armenia, many experts believe that
the Russian-Abkhazian treaty has shot down that project. What is
your opinion?
The given document will probably increase tension in the
Russian-Georgian relations. This scenario may be prevented only in
case if pro-Russian forces continue to gain power in Georgia. There are
such prospects given the latest changes in the Georgian Government. On
the other hand, along with technical problems there is another, a
very important question connected with reactivation of the Abkhazian
section of the railway i.e. where the will be the Georgian border
and the customs point. The railway will not be reactivated, unless
this question gets an answer. Given that the new treaty between
Abkhazia and Russia implies a border between Abkhazia and Georgia,
the incumbent authorities in Georgia will never agree to it.
Well, what were the reasons of such statement by the Russian president?
Russia's policy is a PR by 80% today. For instance, the treaty with
Abkhazia was a serious step, in this view. In fact, that treaty will
bring nothing essential either to Abhkazia or to Russia. Neither it
will be useful for a third party. It was a treaty in the Eurasian Union
spirit. At present, parallel to the events in Ukraine, Moscow is trying
to develop certain events in other regions too. Look at the changes in
the government of Georgia and the recent escalation of situation at
the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. In fact, we see the most important
in the Kremlin's policy - everything has been developing in Ukraine
not the way Vladimir Putin wanted. And this should be compensated by
acquisitions in other places. On the other hand, these acquisitions,
as Putin thinks, are called to compensate the failure in Ukraine.
Do you mean that resignation of Irakli Alasania and his ministers
was a result of the Kremlin's lobby?
Not everything is clear in what has recently happened in Georgia. One
thing is clear that rather prominent men in Georgia have left the
government, and not so much prominent ones have remained. Nobody
knows why the men having a strict pro-Western orientation have left
the government. So, it is quite natural that the new government has
got all the chances for turning the vector of the Georgian foreign
policy towards Russia. The main property of the "secretary general"
of the Georgian authorities is in Russia with all the consequences
stemming from that for him and Georgia.
You talked about Ivanishvili's loyalty to, let's say, Russian value
system. Isn't it a factor for future de-blockading of Georgia's border
with Abkhazia?
I don't think so. With Bidzina Ivanishvili being adherent to Russian
values, Armenia can hardly hope for Georgia reopening its border with
Abkhazia as this is against Russia's interests. In Moscow they are
not interested in Armenia's economic development. They need blockaded
Armenia for if Armenia had a link with Russia, it would ignore the
blockade and there would be no more Armenian-Turkish problem. Russia
needs an Armenia constantly feeling a threat from Turkey.
Could you comment on the current stage of the Ukraine crisis? I
don't mean the military actions. What are your forecasts of further
developments?
Russia has begun to panic after Petro Poroshenko's decision to stop
financing Donbass. This has put the Russians into a kind of zugzwang.
On the other hand, growing corruption in Kyiv may well lead to further
Russian expansion and even new elections.
Despite the failure of the latest round of negotiations of Iran and
six world powers on the Iranian nuclear problem, Tehran's entry to the
world market is, sure, able to provoke a reduction of the Russian gas
and oil prices. What holds the West from using "the Iranian playcard"?
Is it Russia's stand?
In the current situation that has arisen due to both Russia's stand
and the latest steps of the Islamic State, Iran has turned into a
natural ally of the West. However, the capacities of that natural ally
still remain as a potential. The problem is the West's aspiration to
save its face in the policy regarding Iran. Tehran also has a similar
problem. This explains the difficult course of the negotiations on
the nuclear problem. Nevertheless, given that the talks have not been
stopped and have even led to some elements of lifting the blockade
from Iran, the prospects are quite encouraging.
Armenia's import-oriented economy will face a problem with
compatibility of iots customs regime with the EEU criteria already
in 2016. How will they settle that problem, if they do it at all?
The key problem Armenia will face in the Eurasian Economic Union is
that this is a way to nowhere. The last restrictions imposed by Russia
on some foodstuffs from Belarus have proved that this structure is
not serving its purposes. So, it is early to say how things will be in
Armenia in 2016, simply, because it is not yet clear how things will
be in Russia. In this light, I have certain doubts about the future of
the Eurasian Economic Union. Putin is losing authority in Russia. He
has no more bread and circuses to offer to his people. Nationalism
is not effective any more, so, he may need a new conflict in the
post-Soviet area so as to boost the morale of the Russians. This may
have quite unpredictable consequences but Putin no longer cares. What
he needs today is an event rather than a solution to it.
A rhetorical question arises as to whether Armenia is controlled by
internal or external forces?
Armenia is controlled by both internal and external forces. Th degree
of self-rule of any country depends first of all on the legitimacy of
the country's authorities and on its place in foreign interests and
capability to resist the foreign challenges. Today the legitimacy of
the Armenian authorities leaves much to be desired. The country is
involved in the zone of vital interests for Russia.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=B0FAFA90-7A09-11E4-974D0EB7C0D21663