Tweet
ARMENIAN ECONOMISTS CONCERNED OVER RUSSIAN ROUBLE'S ROLE ON EEU MARKET
10:49 * 03.12.14
Gagik Makaryan, COE of the Republican Union of Employers of Armenia
(RUEA) believes that Russia is trying to revalue its national currency
both inside the country and in transactions with other states.
"We will not henceforth have a right to sign agreements based on
currencies other than the Russian rouble. Our exporters and importers
must know well if it is convenient for them to sign contracts based
on the Russian rouble," he said. The USD appreciation is creating
serious problems.
"We are a USD-dependent economy, and most of our exports are from
states other than Russia, while we export oil and gas from Russia.
Three of the 4.3 billion US dollars is the share of the states
using the Euro and US dollar," Mr Makaryan said. Russia, Kazakhstan
and Belarus cannot ensure this amount for Armenia. "As a result,
our economy will be divided into two parts: on the one hand, it
will remain USD-dependent, and on the other hand, it will become
rouble-dependent. But they will not counterbalance each other
because the rouble will be dependent on the USD. Russia's economy is
not so strong for the rouble to appreciate. In any case, Armenia's
economy will remain USD-dependent," Mr Makaryan said. He noted that,
irrespective of membership in the EEU, Russia is major importer from
Armenia, and the economic situation in Russia is decisive in Armenia's
case. "It is Russia's economic situation that plays a decisive role
in further results, but Russia is not in such a favorable situation,
and if it continues for a long period, Russia will get economically
weak," he said. Armenia's exporters to Russia working with the Russian
currency are facing problems. "Russia is inclined to reduce the USD
supply and is trying to sign contracts based on the Russian rouble
with other states. I think that Russia will try to raise the rouble's
role in the EEU through persuasion or even force," Mr Makaryan said.
It poses a threat to Armenia because Russia's economy does not inspire
hopes now.
Vazgen Safaryan, the chairman of the Union of Native Commodity
Producers, says he believes that applying Rouble to import deals
from Russia would be more reasonable in a situations as this. "If we
conduct the trade with Russia and other EEU member states in Roubles,
it will offer us advantages in that we will not have to covert Rouble
into Dollars and later exchange the Dollar into Rouble. We'll pay
Rouble at once," he told Tert.am, noting that the Russian transfers
count for 85% financial flows to Armenia.
The economist nonetheless expressed his concerns over possible
dependence on the Russian currency. "The weaker the Dram, the more
active our economy will be. And that will boost the export volumes.
But because we export goods worth about 300 million Dollars to Russia,
the undermining [of Russia's economy] does not contribute to an growth
in our export volumes. On the one hand, the weakening Dram necessitates
boosting the exports, but on the other hand, our entrepreneurs who
realize products in Russia suffer losses," he added.
Safaryan said he hopes that the fluctuations on the currency market are
temporary. "I think all this bears a temporary character, so Russia
has diversify its economy with prompt efforts," he said, adding that
the Central Bank of Armenia last month injected 92 million US Dollars
into the market to maintain the stability of the Rouble.
"If our imports were wort $4.5 billion instead of $1.5 billion -
as it was last year - we would be facing the contrary scenario. We
would have a dollar surplus and a positive pay balance," he noted.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/12/03/armenia-rcu-dollar/
10:49 * 03.12.14
Gagik Makaryan, COE of the Republican Union of Employers of Armenia
(RUEA) believes that Russia is trying to revalue its national currency
both inside the country and in transactions with other states.
"We will not henceforth have a right to sign agreements based on
currencies other than the Russian rouble. Our exporters and importers
must know well if it is convenient for them to sign contracts based
on the Russian rouble," he said. The USD appreciation is creating
serious problems.
"We are a USD-dependent economy, and most of our exports are from
states other than Russia, while we export oil and gas from Russia.
Three of the 4.3 billion US dollars is the share of the states
using the Euro and US dollar," Mr Makaryan said. Russia, Kazakhstan
and Belarus cannot ensure this amount for Armenia. "As a result,
our economy will be divided into two parts: on the one hand, it
will remain USD-dependent, and on the other hand, it will become
rouble-dependent. But they will not counterbalance each other
because the rouble will be dependent on the USD. Russia's economy is
not so strong for the rouble to appreciate. In any case, Armenia's
economy will remain USD-dependent," Mr Makaryan said. He noted that,
irrespective of membership in the EEU, Russia is major importer from
Armenia, and the economic situation in Russia is decisive in Armenia's
case. "It is Russia's economic situation that plays a decisive role
in further results, but Russia is not in such a favorable situation,
and if it continues for a long period, Russia will get economically
weak," he said. Armenia's exporters to Russia working with the Russian
currency are facing problems. "Russia is inclined to reduce the USD
supply and is trying to sign contracts based on the Russian rouble
with other states. I think that Russia will try to raise the rouble's
role in the EEU through persuasion or even force," Mr Makaryan said.
It poses a threat to Armenia because Russia's economy does not inspire
hopes now.
Vazgen Safaryan, the chairman of the Union of Native Commodity
Producers, says he believes that applying Rouble to import deals
from Russia would be more reasonable in a situations as this. "If we
conduct the trade with Russia and other EEU member states in Roubles,
it will offer us advantages in that we will not have to covert Rouble
into Dollars and later exchange the Dollar into Rouble. We'll pay
Rouble at once," he told Tert.am, noting that the Russian transfers
count for 85% financial flows to Armenia.
The economist nonetheless expressed his concerns over possible
dependence on the Russian currency. "The weaker the Dram, the more
active our economy will be. And that will boost the export volumes.
But because we export goods worth about 300 million Dollars to Russia,
the undermining [of Russia's economy] does not contribute to an growth
in our export volumes. On the one hand, the weakening Dram necessitates
boosting the exports, but on the other hand, our entrepreneurs who
realize products in Russia suffer losses," he added.
Safaryan said he hopes that the fluctuations on the currency market are
temporary. "I think all this bears a temporary character, so Russia
has diversify its economy with prompt efforts," he said, adding that
the Central Bank of Armenia last month injected 92 million US Dollars
into the market to maintain the stability of the Rouble.
"If our imports were wort $4.5 billion instead of $1.5 billion -
as it was last year - we would be facing the contrary scenario. We
would have a dollar surplus and a positive pay balance," he noted.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/12/03/armenia-rcu-dollar/