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Unexpected Circumstances Come Up
Lragir.am
Politics - 06 December 2014, 12:43
Yesterday evening Serzh Sargsyan telephoned the president of Belarus
Lukashenko. According to the official message, issues relating to
development of bilateral relations, as well as cooperation within the
Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) were discussed.
It is possible that this is just a "protocol" phone call but there are
interesting circumstances in the context of recent developments. The
Armenian parliament has ratified the agreement on membership to the
EEU. This agreement still has to be ratified by the parliaments of
Belarus and Kazakhstan by the end of December for official membership
of Armenia to the EEU from January 1.
Belarus, as well as Kazakhstan, has serious controversies with Russia.
These culminated after Russia had banned transit and established
customs control on the border with Belarus. Moscow explained that
Belarus was actually smuggling sanctioned goods to Russia, and goods
shipped to Kazakhstan remained in Russia.
Lukashenko announced that Russia's decision contradicts the EEU
agreement because thereby the basic principle of the agreement - free
movement of goods and services with the union - is violated.
Lukashenko gave Russia ten days to discuss the issue but did not
specify its further actions.
And one of the possible steps can be delay of ratification of the
agreement of Armenia. In addition, Kazakhstan may act in the same way.
These two states have such "experience" when Armenia is concerned,
when they caused obstacles to make Russia make compromise.
There is one more important circumstance. Armenia will have three
representatives to the EEU but only one vote. Apparently, this absurd
setting is also determined by controversies among Russia and the other
two EEU member states. The point is that if Armenia had three votes in
the EEU, those votes would have been additional votes for Russia which
Moscow would use to have its decisions passed. However, with one vote
Moscow can only hinder Minsk and Astana to pass decisions that are in
line with their interests. In this respect, the membership of Armenia
is not in line with the interests of Belarus and Kazakhstan because
Armenia is not and cannot be an independent player. In other words,
the vote of Armenia is going to be a tool for Moscow against joint
initiatives of Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Will Armenia be able to use this tool at least in full considering the
type of the union they are going to join where, judging by what is
going on deceiving each other and tradeoff are going to be the main
principles. Instead, Minsk and Astana have great success, particularly
using the factor of Armenia.
Apparently, Serzh Sargsyan and Lukashenko have discussed these
questions. The agreement of Armenia will certainly be ratified but
Lukashenko will trade off something with Russia instead. Maybe also
with Armenia, considering that the leader of the non-government of
Armenia is his friend. Besides, unpleasant statements in the address
of the president of Belarus have been made in the parliament of
Armenia, which will raise the price asked for Lukashenko.
Happy membership to the EEU!
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/33295#sthash.VyhGkoqw.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian
Lragir.am
Politics - 06 December 2014, 12:43
Yesterday evening Serzh Sargsyan telephoned the president of Belarus
Lukashenko. According to the official message, issues relating to
development of bilateral relations, as well as cooperation within the
Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) were discussed.
It is possible that this is just a "protocol" phone call but there are
interesting circumstances in the context of recent developments. The
Armenian parliament has ratified the agreement on membership to the
EEU. This agreement still has to be ratified by the parliaments of
Belarus and Kazakhstan by the end of December for official membership
of Armenia to the EEU from January 1.
Belarus, as well as Kazakhstan, has serious controversies with Russia.
These culminated after Russia had banned transit and established
customs control on the border with Belarus. Moscow explained that
Belarus was actually smuggling sanctioned goods to Russia, and goods
shipped to Kazakhstan remained in Russia.
Lukashenko announced that Russia's decision contradicts the EEU
agreement because thereby the basic principle of the agreement - free
movement of goods and services with the union - is violated.
Lukashenko gave Russia ten days to discuss the issue but did not
specify its further actions.
And one of the possible steps can be delay of ratification of the
agreement of Armenia. In addition, Kazakhstan may act in the same way.
These two states have such "experience" when Armenia is concerned,
when they caused obstacles to make Russia make compromise.
There is one more important circumstance. Armenia will have three
representatives to the EEU but only one vote. Apparently, this absurd
setting is also determined by controversies among Russia and the other
two EEU member states. The point is that if Armenia had three votes in
the EEU, those votes would have been additional votes for Russia which
Moscow would use to have its decisions passed. However, with one vote
Moscow can only hinder Minsk and Astana to pass decisions that are in
line with their interests. In this respect, the membership of Armenia
is not in line with the interests of Belarus and Kazakhstan because
Armenia is not and cannot be an independent player. In other words,
the vote of Armenia is going to be a tool for Moscow against joint
initiatives of Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Will Armenia be able to use this tool at least in full considering the
type of the union they are going to join where, judging by what is
going on deceiving each other and tradeoff are going to be the main
principles. Instead, Minsk and Astana have great success, particularly
using the factor of Armenia.
Apparently, Serzh Sargsyan and Lukashenko have discussed these
questions. The agreement of Armenia will certainly be ratified but
Lukashenko will trade off something with Russia instead. Maybe also
with Armenia, considering that the leader of the non-government of
Armenia is his friend. Besides, unpleasant statements in the address
of the president of Belarus have been made in the parliament of
Armenia, which will raise the price asked for Lukashenko.
Happy membership to the EEU!
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/33295#sthash.VyhGkoqw.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian