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EXPERT FORECASTS AMD APPRECIATION
16:29 * 18.12.14
In an interview with Tert.am, economist and founder of the Ajlentrank
(Alternative) research center Tatul Manaseryan said that he was the
only independent expert to forecast quick stabilization of the USD/AMD
exchange rate.
According to him, economic risks remains, and recovery requires team
work in terms of supervision and regulation.
Mr Manaseryan calls for civil activity and for holding Armenia's
authorities responsible and consider the economic entities that have
taken advantage of the situation "at the expense of our pockets."
Mr Manaseryan, this morning some RUB appreciation against the AMD
could be seen in Armenia's banks. The USD and Euro showed depreciation
as well: the minimum selling price of the US dollar was AMD 550,
whereas last morning exchange offices did not sell US dollars even
at an exchange rate of $1/AMD 620. What can you say? Can we have
optimistic expectations?
We can speak of it every day, and some people treated my forecasts
with irony. As an independent think tank, we were the first to
forecast quick stabilization. And, fortunately, our forecast is
becoming a reality. We had grounds for the forecasts. Some apologies
for economists tried to speak of others' behalf yesterday and claim
no one knew what was going on. We know well - and one does not have
to be an economist to understand the situation. Abuse has taken place.
Armenia's economy does not have prerequisites for such deterioration.
So we designated it USD appreciation rather than AMD depreciation,
with ensuing consequences. Large-scale speculations have taken place,
and, with Armenia being a small economy, even ordinary consumers
could see was happened. Individual banks created deficit and stopped
buying USD, which played into the hand of those taking advantage of
the situation. Fortunately, supervision was exercised.
And what about the injections you speak of? Are they aimed at simply
earning money or are there any political objectives?
It is, first of all, for earning money, and these are not only the
foreign powers but those that have accumulated money. They needed
to profit by the occasion to realize that at the expense of the
Armenian market. But there is also a geopolitical factor. So we are
in a vulnerable situation and are obliged to have countermeasures and
counterbalancing steps to protect ourselves from different possible
scenarios. And we do have an elaborated package.
Similar trends are also observed in Russia and Georgia where [the
national currency] Lari began stabilizing much earlier. So was this a
coordinated response, and were any solutions found in those countries?
"Yes, there are many differences between economies, and it is notable
that while in the case of the military partnership with Armenia,
it is expressed with the Rouble and the Russian market, the Georgian
economy, which is more Dollar- and Euro-oriented, received the signals
directly from there in both positive and negative terms. But Armenia
will keep facing risks.
Do you point to any timeframes for stabilization or do you refrain
from it?
It is very important for us to maintain the Armenian national currency
and strengthen belief and trust in the Dram. Each of us has less
in terms of both personal savings and the price surge, but there is
one thing we must realize clearly: that all this has to do with our
national values. So in case we decide to give preference to the Dollar,
Euro and other currencies, we'll doom ourselves [to failures].
So is it possible to say that you are making a call for a civic stand?
Yes, and I do it very clearly. Why don't those who do not really need
to transactions avoid buying Euros? If every country gives preference
to their values, why don't we try to protect our national value?
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/12/18/manaserian/1539602
16:29 * 18.12.14
In an interview with Tert.am, economist and founder of the Ajlentrank
(Alternative) research center Tatul Manaseryan said that he was the
only independent expert to forecast quick stabilization of the USD/AMD
exchange rate.
According to him, economic risks remains, and recovery requires team
work in terms of supervision and regulation.
Mr Manaseryan calls for civil activity and for holding Armenia's
authorities responsible and consider the economic entities that have
taken advantage of the situation "at the expense of our pockets."
Mr Manaseryan, this morning some RUB appreciation against the AMD
could be seen in Armenia's banks. The USD and Euro showed depreciation
as well: the minimum selling price of the US dollar was AMD 550,
whereas last morning exchange offices did not sell US dollars even
at an exchange rate of $1/AMD 620. What can you say? Can we have
optimistic expectations?
We can speak of it every day, and some people treated my forecasts
with irony. As an independent think tank, we were the first to
forecast quick stabilization. And, fortunately, our forecast is
becoming a reality. We had grounds for the forecasts. Some apologies
for economists tried to speak of others' behalf yesterday and claim
no one knew what was going on. We know well - and one does not have
to be an economist to understand the situation. Abuse has taken place.
Armenia's economy does not have prerequisites for such deterioration.
So we designated it USD appreciation rather than AMD depreciation,
with ensuing consequences. Large-scale speculations have taken place,
and, with Armenia being a small economy, even ordinary consumers
could see was happened. Individual banks created deficit and stopped
buying USD, which played into the hand of those taking advantage of
the situation. Fortunately, supervision was exercised.
And what about the injections you speak of? Are they aimed at simply
earning money or are there any political objectives?
It is, first of all, for earning money, and these are not only the
foreign powers but those that have accumulated money. They needed
to profit by the occasion to realize that at the expense of the
Armenian market. But there is also a geopolitical factor. So we are
in a vulnerable situation and are obliged to have countermeasures and
counterbalancing steps to protect ourselves from different possible
scenarios. And we do have an elaborated package.
Similar trends are also observed in Russia and Georgia where [the
national currency] Lari began stabilizing much earlier. So was this a
coordinated response, and were any solutions found in those countries?
"Yes, there are many differences between economies, and it is notable
that while in the case of the military partnership with Armenia,
it is expressed with the Rouble and the Russian market, the Georgian
economy, which is more Dollar- and Euro-oriented, received the signals
directly from there in both positive and negative terms. But Armenia
will keep facing risks.
Do you point to any timeframes for stabilization or do you refrain
from it?
It is very important for us to maintain the Armenian national currency
and strengthen belief and trust in the Dram. Each of us has less
in terms of both personal savings and the price surge, but there is
one thing we must realize clearly: that all this has to do with our
national values. So in case we decide to give preference to the Dollar,
Euro and other currencies, we'll doom ourselves [to failures].
So is it possible to say that you are making a call for a civic stand?
Yes, and I do it very clearly. Why don't those who do not really need
to transactions avoid buying Euros? If every country gives preference
to their values, why don't we try to protect our national value?
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/12/18/manaserian/1539602