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DOLLAR HIKE UNLIKELY TO BOOST ARMENIA'S EXPORTS - ECONOMIST
13:14 * 18.12.14
The president of the Association of Armenian Exporters says he is
skeptical about the authorities' optimistic forecasts on the increasing
Dollar rate's positive impact on exports volumes.
"The Dollar hike is not likely to bring about anything good. The
process should have been smooth to make the exports advantageous,"
Raffi Mkhejyan told Tert.am, calling for maximum efforts by the
government and the Central Bank towards halting the process.
He said he doesn't think that the currency's increasing prices is
the only factor stipulating the export growth. "What we export is
domestic raw material and domestic labor force. So the fact that such
fluctuations of the currency rate will contribute to exports are a
myth," he added.
Asked what losses the domestic exporters' suffer against the backdrop
of the declining Russian Rouble, Mkhejyan said doesn't see any serious
transaction in the present circumstances.
"There too, exports would be advvantageous in case the Rouble were
stable. But we do not have any Rouble or Dram in place today. So this
isn't likely to lead to anything good," the economist noted.
He said he doesn't predict any outcome in the current state of
affairs. "There is now way out today. We are tied to Russia's economy
through direct bonds, so we cannot do anything unless the general
situation improves. Here first of all we see such a factor as Russia
where the price per one Dollar has reached 70-75 Roubles. So if the
neither the Russian Central Bank nor we are able to do anything to
suppress it, the problem then we are facing a large-scale problem. The
situation has already gone beyond control," he explained.
Mekhjyan said he thinks that the fluctuations will continue until
spring, adding that positive changes will be ruled out in the absence
of a political decision by Russia.
"Mr Putin has to make a political decision to smooth out the
situation," he said.
David Ghazaryan, the president of the exporting company Spayka, says he
expects the increasing exchange rate to promote agricultural exports.
"For the export of agricultural produce, it will be quite all right.
But this isn't notably a season for exports. So there is no positive
impact as of today," he added.
The company currently exports grape and cabbage.
"Should the currency exchange rate remain what it is now, it will
boost exports," he said.
Commenting on the currency fluctuations, Khosrov Harutyunyan, a
former prime minister now representing the ruling Republican faction
in parliament, said an increase in the export volumes requires raising
the exports capacities to a corresponding level.
"The Russian market is in need of basic necessities. So are we ready
to meet that demand with our supply?" he said, considering Armenia's
institutional capacities too weak.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/12/18/dollar/1539458
13:14 * 18.12.14
The president of the Association of Armenian Exporters says he is
skeptical about the authorities' optimistic forecasts on the increasing
Dollar rate's positive impact on exports volumes.
"The Dollar hike is not likely to bring about anything good. The
process should have been smooth to make the exports advantageous,"
Raffi Mkhejyan told Tert.am, calling for maximum efforts by the
government and the Central Bank towards halting the process.
He said he doesn't think that the currency's increasing prices is
the only factor stipulating the export growth. "What we export is
domestic raw material and domestic labor force. So the fact that such
fluctuations of the currency rate will contribute to exports are a
myth," he added.
Asked what losses the domestic exporters' suffer against the backdrop
of the declining Russian Rouble, Mkhejyan said doesn't see any serious
transaction in the present circumstances.
"There too, exports would be advvantageous in case the Rouble were
stable. But we do not have any Rouble or Dram in place today. So this
isn't likely to lead to anything good," the economist noted.
He said he doesn't predict any outcome in the current state of
affairs. "There is now way out today. We are tied to Russia's economy
through direct bonds, so we cannot do anything unless the general
situation improves. Here first of all we see such a factor as Russia
where the price per one Dollar has reached 70-75 Roubles. So if the
neither the Russian Central Bank nor we are able to do anything to
suppress it, the problem then we are facing a large-scale problem. The
situation has already gone beyond control," he explained.
Mekhjyan said he thinks that the fluctuations will continue until
spring, adding that positive changes will be ruled out in the absence
of a political decision by Russia.
"Mr Putin has to make a political decision to smooth out the
situation," he said.
David Ghazaryan, the president of the exporting company Spayka, says he
expects the increasing exchange rate to promote agricultural exports.
"For the export of agricultural produce, it will be quite all right.
But this isn't notably a season for exports. So there is no positive
impact as of today," he added.
The company currently exports grape and cabbage.
"Should the currency exchange rate remain what it is now, it will
boost exports," he said.
Commenting on the currency fluctuations, Khosrov Harutyunyan, a
former prime minister now representing the ruling Republican faction
in parliament, said an increase in the export volumes requires raising
the exports capacities to a corresponding level.
"The Russian market is in need of basic necessities. So are we ready
to meet that demand with our supply?" he said, considering Armenia's
institutional capacities too weak.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/12/18/dollar/1539458