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OPINION
2015: focus on repairs by Raffi Kalfayan
The year 2015 is both the year of opportunities for the Armenian
cause, but also that of all the dangers for internal and foreign
policy of Armenia.However, initiatives on the front of the Armenian
cause require an Armenian transnational consensus. For now,
expectations, very strong, the diaspora are substantially as
disappointed by the lack of anticipation by the lack of visibility of
actions, whether by the Armenian State, the main political
institutions diaspora, but also by the unified Centennial Committee;
which is not a surprise: it's been over two years since there are
voices in the Diaspora to denounce the lack of leadership, passivity,
and neutralization of goodwill.
Activists who abhors a vacuum, the various initiatives, nourished by
good intentions, proliferate, with funds that are not entirely
fortuitous nor specifically devoid of political goals by the
benefactors sources. These activities are mainly focused on the
so-called dialogue and reconciliation between the Turkish and Armenian
civil societies, as if anyone needed these programs to communicate.
Other initiatives, bolder, certainly, but more prone to manipulations,
such groups allegedly representing Western Armenia trying to enter
direct negotiations with the Turkish authorities. Finally, associative
or individual statements in the Diaspora as in Armenia multiply in all
directions.Most, however, also appear politically unrealistic
qu'infondées in law.
Without going into detail, it is useful to recall some legal evidence.
The crimes committed against the Armenian population can no longer be
the subject of a criminal trial: the organizers, perpetrators or
accomplices of the massacres are all dead; victims and witnesses as
well. Moreover, the trial Ottoman 1919 ("the trial of the Unionists')
have already tried and convicted primarily responsible for mass crimes
committed against the Armenian population in the Ottoman Empire.
Second, the International Court of Justice is an interstate court
which only the States parties, the United Nations General Assembly or
the Security Council may enter. The double question that arises is: Is
the Armenian Genocide of 1915-1916 a dispute between the Turkish state
and the Armenian State? Recall that the latter did not exist at that
time. Assuming that [Armenia] is accepted as a matter of law, and that
it recognizes its interest in acting, which means law he would put
forward? Let us recall that the whole procedure requires that the
opposing State accepts the principle and terms of referral, except
that it be imposed upon him by the United Nations or the Security
Council. This procedure assumes in all cases that the international
responsibility of the State Turkish-Ottoman be established in the
massacres and deportations committed in 1915-1916; an element that
will be challenged by Turkey, but the existing evidence is sufficient.
In parallel, we find that the actions of the Armenian Genocide
recognition by foreign governments or parliaments have stagnated over
the past decade; the soothing speeches of Turkey and the
Armenian-Turkish protocols from October 2009 are not strangers to this
result. On the eve of 2015, we are witnessing a resurgence of activity
but in no great strategic importance forums, and the phenomenon
promises to be ephemeral and illusory for two main reasons.
The first is that Turkey does not want to admit and fight with
financial and diplomatic forces any legal recognition of his crimes as
genocide qualifier or crimes against humanity. She prefers to evoke
the suffering of the Armenian people and the inhumanity of population
transfers during the troubled period of the First World War. Assuming
de facto qualification and guilt of "war crimes" (crimes already have
a legal reality in 1915, even if they were not codified extensively),
and it provides the means to develop an application counterclaim for
damages suffered by the Muslim Turkish population in eastern Anatolia,
because of the actions of Armenian armed bands or Armenian legions
supported by the Russian army; actual events that are obviously not
relevant for the period 1915-1916, but which, viewed in the broader
context of the 1914-1918 war, would constitute sufficient grounds to
support an application.
The second reason is that Turkey remains more than ever now, a key
pillar of international diplomacy, particularly in the Near and the
Middle East. As such, the United States, Israel, and Britain (see note
issued by the Foreign Office December 9, 2014), on the one hand and
Russia on the other, competing to win diplomatically in the region,
maintain nilly into a strategic partnership with Turkey. There is
little hope for these countries to change their course of action and
commit themselves actions or support those of Armenia, for the
political recognition of the genocide.
This impunity, gives Turkey the opportunity to strengthen its business
of genocide denial and dissemination of its falsified version of
history. The irruption of Azerbaijan in this business has strengthened
Turkey's nuisance capacity, even if the hateful, racist and extremist
policy of the Azerbaijani towards Armenians hinders increasingly
Turkey.
The political forces in the Diaspora admit more or less stalled
Armenian Genocide recognition process in the world; inequality and
state funding is acute. This recognition, however, was largely
acquired from public opinion and the scientific community in the
world, and 2015 will be the highlight. The problem already exists for
post-2015. It also raises some extent for 2015, as Turkey is doing
everything possible to counteract the media and political significance
of the commemoration of the massacres and deportations of 1915-1916.
His initiatives have started well in advance.
Dialogue and reconciliation tactical win-win for Turkey
This strategy started in 2004, when Turkey was engaged in the business
of seduction of the European Union. She has understood the strategic
interest, and the United States and the European Commission directly
interested in a resumption of diplomatic relations and to a
rapprochement between the civil societies of both countries have made
funding. For Westerners, this strategy seeks to marginalize the
extremists called the Diaspora to favor direct dialogue with a
weakened Armenia. For the "NGO industry" greedy financial aid, this
represents a direct and immediate windfall (just for the year 2015,
about �¬ 2 million were given to the Armenian and Turkish NGOs). Turkey
draws political dividend.
This process diverts indeed the Armenian side of the political
problems that constitute the substance of the dispute. Besides these
initiatives affect an infinitesimal segment of the Turkish population,
which over a long period, taking into account the demographic and
economic vitality of the Turkish population, looking to the future
rather than the past, weakens the effects hypothetical bet on which
some Armenians.
Dialogue programs and intercultural exchange and inter-funded by the
European Union and the US public or private aid but also, which is
more recent, by Armenian and Turkish private foundations. These
programs would not exist without these aids. We can read in recent
weeks of self-congratulatory statements, including the part of sincere
activists of the Armenian cause, without the impact of these
initiatives will be truly demonstrated nor measured (outreach). It
should in this respect that the resurgence of revisionist propaganda
and political and legal activism Turkish parastatal elements are not
obscured; Remember that this political and legal activism manifested
in France through the trials of activists of the Armenian cause or
Parliamentary Friends of it. In the United States, where "watchdogs"
(watchdogs) of the official Turkish thesis on the Armenian Genocide
are institutionally organized, it manifests in a systematic,
politically and legally in American public life, and paradoxically
paralyzes universities. The attack extends beyond the debate on
genocide; scribes in the pay of the Turkish state present the
Armenians as anti-Semites in the US and Israeli press.
Another indirect effect of these programmatic platforms have enabled
Turkey firstly, to gather useful information and ideas to fuel its
strategic analyzes and, secondly, to identify some diaspora Armenians,
with which Turkey has decided to pursue this time officially a more
direct form of cooperation (see Harut Sassounian editorial of 10 April
2012). This phenomenon, which started in the United States started
later in Europe, but is now in battle.
Finally, the diplomacy of Turkey is of the preparations for a soothing
speech and openness: the recall of memory for years "idyllic"
cohabitation in the Ottoman Empire, the expression of a "shared
suffering" and even the recognition of the inhumanity of the movements
of the Armenian population.This scenario is not new (there for at
least eight years), but its gradual staging hides a threat, real, that
of a public and official recognition minima, such as looming for some
time, the apology for the suffering of the Armenian people during the
First World War, along with the restitution of property and buildings
belonging to the Armenian religious institutions; A government decree
has already solved in 2011, when the properties and assets belonging
to the foundations of Armenian religious and cultural minorities
(Vakf�±, institutions created by imperial edicts) requiring the return
of property that entered their capital between 1936 and 2007 and they
had confiscated in 1974.
Turkey could easily convince foreign governments that the apology and
refunds constitute an honorable compromise and sufficient to do
justice, which would place the Armenian nation wishing to obtain more
in a very difficult position. To avoid such an outcome and not leave
Turkey alone dictate the future, an offensive strategy is needed from
the Armenian side. It must anticipate and mobilize and be a
pan-Armenian consensus. 2015 represents a tremendous window of
political opportunities to engage in precisely this direction and
abandon the reactive and defensive policy. But the window is narrow,
so do not miss it. This is an opportunity to move the political and
diplomatic battle on new ground, reminding superpowers: USA, France,
Britain, Russia, Germany but first their debts and obligations and to
exploit the Diaspora as spearhead of this new policy. The Armenian
state is constrained by the conflict diplomatically linked to the
Nagorno-Karabakh (Turkey determines the opening of its border or
ratification of the protocols with Armenia to the evacuation of some
territories) and its total dependence on -vis Russia; a dominant
partner who has signed a strategic partnership at the regional
political and economic level with Turkey.
Diaspora, which is either asleep or tired of political impasses in
terms of domestic and foreign policy of Armenia, in its ongoing quest
for justice awaits a major action that would open new perspectives and
political activists; but also an opportunity to mobilize every family,
and to work smart in close coordination political and diplomatic
forces from Armenia and Diaspora.
The launch of a repair application process is the political and legal
option that meets these expectations and criteria. It would withdraw
from the double impasse that is the illusory nature of a formal
political recognition of the genocide by Turkey on the one hand, and
the difficulty he has it, in strictly legal terms, to qualify
massacres and genocide of 1915 atrocities, on the other.
Repairs are the "new frontier" of the Armenian cause
The strategic means to be made is the one to hire, on several fronts,
legal and political initiatives to obtain reparations. It would not be
wise to publicly discuss and deliver adversity objectives, the means
and the legal arguments underlying them. However, it must meet several
ideas, totally wrong on this issue.
The first is to believe that the official recognition of the genocide
by Turkey as a crime qualified as such is a necessary condition to
initiate requests for financial and moral reparations for the crimes
committed in 1915-1916 by the State Turkish-Ottoman and damage to
property and wealth of the Armenian nation through dispossession,
destruction and confiscations. There is nothing in international law.
The state crime is established and can be proven and whatever its
qualification, it opens right to compensation to the victims, or
rather, a hundred years later, to the beneficiaries of the latter. The
second misconception is that Turkey longer fear the Armenian land
claims that applications for repairs. Armenians should not lie to
themselves. Armenia is a micro-state, already mired in a military
conflict with Azerbaijan, and confronted with a rising discontent
domestically. A she now a political and military power that can
support such claims? Armenia would not find otherwise alliances in
this business.
Solutions exist and a plan of legal and political actions is even
ready, including its operational aspects. Study groups, complementary
to each other (ACT AGRSG and in the Diaspora, and a group in Armenia),
worked on the subject.Catholicos Aram I, for its part, organized a
major conference on the subject in Beirut in 2012.
The strategy must be based on solid legal foundations and lucid and
not rely on the support of third countries. It must be designed in
such a manner that it can be injurious to the territorial claims of
Armenia (The State is the only subject of law can act on this issue in
international law) or to continuous actions of political recognition
Genocide by Turkey or other countries. This qualification, as we have
said above, is not a prerequisite for requesting repairs. Moreover,
the concept of repair is very broad and contains material and moral
aspects. The moral aspects include among others the admission of
guilt, forgiveness of demand, stopping the denial of the facts, a
proper educational policy.
To understand the financial stakes are far more compelling and
disturbing to the Turkish state, just watch the amounts of
compensation received from Germany by the institution established by
Holocaust survivors Jews ( the Claims Conference), or $ 60 billion,
and the result of direct negotiations and parallel between the State
of Israel and Germany, 3 billion DM in 1952, under and on behalf of
the victims n ' having no heirs. Compensation claims continue today
(see the agreement SNCF / The United States government). Once the
process starts, the possible queries field beyond imagination.
The study published by the AGRSG, which has sought to define and
measure the repairs in all its dimensions in the case of the Armenian
genocide, made a first estimate of the damage, by discounting the
amounts indicated in the preparatory conferences Treaty of Sevres
(1920) advances a compensation amount close to $ 100 billion. More
modern methods of calculation will refine these figures. These are
present in the minds of Turkish leaders, but also in the
"intellectuals" close Turkish Armenians, who quickly evacuate the
question of a hand backhand when it is addressed. The strategy must
support where it hurts. This requires forward duly considered and
structured way. In law, nothing is simple or the meaning of words or
interaction principles, especially when mingle in this case, local
law, regional law and international law. The written law is further
subject to the interpretation of men that do justice with all the
uncertainties and errors that can accompany their
judgment.International justice is particularly related to
international relations. Appeals filed with the United States in the
Movsesian and others have shown the limits of the federal justice when
diplomacy is involved.
The question that arises is: if everything is ready, why no action or
policy decision the stakes have not yet been announced?
The political, economic and social situation of the country reached an
unparalleled state of desolation: the war with neighboring Azerbaijan
has resumed on border lines and the reconciliation of Azerbaijan with
Russia and Turkey also looms; membership in humiliating conditions,
the Eurasian Economic Union, under pressure from Russia, has spent the
break of diplomatic balancing blocks but it has already resulted in a
threat of economic and monetary chaos; Russia Armenia resulting in his
descent into hell. The economic and social discontent grows inside,
due to price inflation, and the number of potential migrants is still
increasing. To top it all, it's been a resurgence of repression of
political rights and freedoms. By imitation of the Russian model,
physical attacks on activists and opponents and arrests of protesters
resumed and Armenia develops draconian laws to control NGO funding
sources and sources of information for journalists.
So it is in this context that national consensus in terms of legal and
political actions. The next deadline is appropriate to observe January
29, 2015, date of the next plenary meeting of the Centennial
Committee. Speculation about the arrival of a Turkish high authority
in the commemorations of April 24 in Yerevan only reinforce the
relevance and urgency of an official announcement of the campaign
launch requests for repairs.
Raffi Kalfayan
December 19, 2014
http://www.armenews.com/IMG/Cap_re_paration.pdf
Saturday, December 20, 2014,
Ara © armenews.com
http://www.armenews.com/article.php3?id_article=106330