Tweet
ALIYEV BELIEVES THAT UNLIKE THE WEST, RUSSIA CAN INSURE HIM AGAINST MAIDAN
by David Stepanyan
Tuesday, December 23, 13:37
What prospects does the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process have for 2015
considering the all-time high tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border and no progress in the peace talks in 2014?
I am very sorry but in 2015 the situation over Nagorno-Karabakh
will hardly be better than in 2014. This year's tension was a
logical result of the parties' past years' activity to militarize
their contact line. The Azerbaijani authorities deem it necessary to
remind the world from time to time that some of their territories are
occupied, and they do it by breaking the cease-fire regime and causing
certain instability. In their turn, the Armenians see it proper to
demonstrate their military strength to the enemy. All this is bad
for the cease-fire regime and the peace talks, especially as this is
happening amid the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine. The Minsk Group is
on its last legs, so, the best the parties can hope for in near future
is periodic meetings of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents -
something that has little to do with real peace talks.
In 2015 Azerbaijan will spend 18% of its budget or $5bln on military
purposes. How expedient is it for the Kremlin to continue its arming
policy with respect to Armenia and Azerbaijan considering the fact
that for people in Armenia this remains the thorniest issue?
Russia's current policy on its neighbors neglects their interests
and moods. This is also true for traditionally pro-Russian Belarus,
Abkhazia and Armenia. They in the Kremlin are acting as if they are
still living in the 1990s. They treat Armenia as if it is already in
their pocket and they already can improve relations with Azerbaijan.
Unlike the ruling regimes, people in both Armenia and Azerbaijan
are very suspicious of Russia's attempts to enlarge its influence
in the Caucasus. In this light, many regional centers are waiting
for the Russians to become weaker so as to be able to go back to a
multi-vector policy.
Russian-Turkish relations have risen to a completely new level, which
looks as all but economic cooperation in the light of the global
confrontation between Russia and the West. What can this progress
bring to Russia and Turkey and also to Armenia and Azerbaijan?
I think it is still early to speak about a radically new stage of the
Russian-Turkish relations. Energy is a special sector, which does not
determine general relations. Certainly, President Erdogan and Putin
found common grounds on several issues, but the relations of both of
them with the West have worsened. As for the other important issues,
for instance, Syria and Crimea, the positions of Moscow and Ankara
are absolutely different. The expert emphasized that the traditional
Russian-Turkish confrontation on the Caucasus has not disappeared
and still remains with all its consequences.
What are the reasons for growing repressions against journalists and
human rights activists in Azerbaijan? Have they anything to do with
the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process?
I think they have nothing to do with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace
process. Even though pro forma the motive for the arrests of Arif and
Leyla Yunus and Rauf Mirkadyrov was their cooperation with Armenians,
it was just a pretext. President Aliyev just used the moment -
when the world was focused on Ukraine - to get rid of his internal
opponents. One more reason is that after eleven years as president
Aliyev has very few good advisers left. He is acting as many other
long-term leaders generally do: after so many years in power he
has gotten very far from his people and therefore is acting quite
emotionally and unpredictably. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
seems to believe that unlike the West, Russia can give him guarantees
against a Maidan in his country.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=A5DA48A0-8A8F-11E4-AA260EB7C0D21663
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
by David Stepanyan
Tuesday, December 23, 13:37
What prospects does the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process have for 2015
considering the all-time high tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border and no progress in the peace talks in 2014?
I am very sorry but in 2015 the situation over Nagorno-Karabakh
will hardly be better than in 2014. This year's tension was a
logical result of the parties' past years' activity to militarize
their contact line. The Azerbaijani authorities deem it necessary to
remind the world from time to time that some of their territories are
occupied, and they do it by breaking the cease-fire regime and causing
certain instability. In their turn, the Armenians see it proper to
demonstrate their military strength to the enemy. All this is bad
for the cease-fire regime and the peace talks, especially as this is
happening amid the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine. The Minsk Group is
on its last legs, so, the best the parties can hope for in near future
is periodic meetings of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents -
something that has little to do with real peace talks.
In 2015 Azerbaijan will spend 18% of its budget or $5bln on military
purposes. How expedient is it for the Kremlin to continue its arming
policy with respect to Armenia and Azerbaijan considering the fact
that for people in Armenia this remains the thorniest issue?
Russia's current policy on its neighbors neglects their interests
and moods. This is also true for traditionally pro-Russian Belarus,
Abkhazia and Armenia. They in the Kremlin are acting as if they are
still living in the 1990s. They treat Armenia as if it is already in
their pocket and they already can improve relations with Azerbaijan.
Unlike the ruling regimes, people in both Armenia and Azerbaijan
are very suspicious of Russia's attempts to enlarge its influence
in the Caucasus. In this light, many regional centers are waiting
for the Russians to become weaker so as to be able to go back to a
multi-vector policy.
Russian-Turkish relations have risen to a completely new level, which
looks as all but economic cooperation in the light of the global
confrontation between Russia and the West. What can this progress
bring to Russia and Turkey and also to Armenia and Azerbaijan?
I think it is still early to speak about a radically new stage of the
Russian-Turkish relations. Energy is a special sector, which does not
determine general relations. Certainly, President Erdogan and Putin
found common grounds on several issues, but the relations of both of
them with the West have worsened. As for the other important issues,
for instance, Syria and Crimea, the positions of Moscow and Ankara
are absolutely different. The expert emphasized that the traditional
Russian-Turkish confrontation on the Caucasus has not disappeared
and still remains with all its consequences.
What are the reasons for growing repressions against journalists and
human rights activists in Azerbaijan? Have they anything to do with
the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process?
I think they have nothing to do with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace
process. Even though pro forma the motive for the arrests of Arif and
Leyla Yunus and Rauf Mirkadyrov was their cooperation with Armenians,
it was just a pretext. President Aliyev just used the moment -
when the world was focused on Ukraine - to get rid of his internal
opponents. One more reason is that after eleven years as president
Aliyev has very few good advisers left. He is acting as many other
long-term leaders generally do: after so many years in power he
has gotten very far from his people and therefore is acting quite
emotionally and unpredictably. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
seems to believe that unlike the West, Russia can give him guarantees
against a Maidan in his country.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=A5DA48A0-8A8F-11E4-AA260EB7C0D21663
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress