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NATO MEMBER STATES ARE CONSIDERING SUPPLYING WEAPONS TO ARMENIA
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 29 December 2014, 17:08
NATO's concept of "soft power" means elaboration of NATO regional
policy which covers regional issues, as well as includes new partners.
Decisions made at Chicago Summit remain topical, and the problem is not
the concept but the lack of necessary means. Wales Summit put forth
ambitious objectives, and the U.S. and leading countries of Europe,
including France and Germany, support these decisions and intentions.
The problems relating to the unprecedented threat of the Islamic State
have necessitated revision of some NATO problems, understanding that
it is necessary to get down to decisive actions with the existing
resources.
The countries of Eastern Europe, including Georgia and Armenia,
encounter big issues in the economic and social sphere, there are
serious political problems, including in the sphere of foreign policy,
relating to external conflicts. Though Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan
are participating in the peacekeeping actions in Afghanistan, their
role is more important in terms of military and other transit. This
is an important matter, and these countries implement large-scale
tasks in logistics.
Now that NATO troops are being withdrawn from Afghanistan, South
Caucasus is acquiring special importance but over time after
implementation of these objectives South Caucasus may lose its
importance to NATO.
It is hard to tell how long this period will last. However, the
countries of the region must realize that the role of the South
Caucasus is going to change along with the objectives of NATO and
the United States.
One can state with confidence that NATO and the United States will
maintain a significant level of military presence in Central Asia,
which will define the function of military transit in the South
Caucasus.
Armenia has missed a lot in cooperation with NATO but now cooperation
is being accelerated, and the alliance is accepting this with great
interest and approval. Armenia is in a complicated situation and is
facing the prospect of continuing arms race because Azerbaijan bid
on buying a lot of weapons. This has enabled Russia to impose vassal
relations on Armenia.
Methods of political regulation are highly important but balance of
forces may be violated in the region, which boosts the risks and
threats of war in which neither NATO, nor the European Union are
interested. For this purpose, several states, including Germany and
France, set to discuss supply of arms to Armenia, considering its
financial situation. Formally, this does not concern NATO and is the
sovereign right of separate countries but NATO-Armenia cooperation
is highly important to the solution of these problems.
Since Armenia has strong commitments to Russia and CSTO, its
initiatives for cooperation with NATO are limited though, nevertheless,
development of relations is important.
It would be easier for Armenia to develop relations with NATO if the
purpose set were to join the alliance instead of some projects of
cooperation with new partners. In this case, Armenia would have to
put forth more comprehensible conceptual and specific issues.
Turkey has active participation in the preparedness of the Azerbaijani
armed forces, development of its military industry. Apparently,
Azerbaijan will make a decision on resumption of war when it agrees
with Turkey.
Now Turkey submits to NATO assessments of preparedness of the
Azerbaijani armed forces, considering it insufficient. On the whole,
Turkey finds that Azerbaijan is not ready for war. The agreement on
mutual assistance between Turkey and Azerbaijan will hardly matter
as a mechanism for Turkish military intervention.
Turkey may intervene either by its sovereign right or by the UN
decision. However, it is hard to assume that the UN will make such
a decision but in this case NATO cannot approve unless circumstances
of aggression against Turkey are present. Turkey's participation will
be indirect, "volunteers" may take part in the military actions.
The development of relations of NATO and the European Union with the
states of the South Caucasus is based on the possibility of avoidance
of military conflicts and continuation of integration.
The United States is negotiating with Turkey within NATO over issues
relating to Armenia. Germany, France and the United Kingdom may also
conduct such negotiations but these states have no wish and either
ignore Turkey's position or address those issues to the United States.
Experts think controversies between the United States and Turkey,
as well as NATO and Turkey have not been settled, and the prospect
of normalization of those relations is not clear. Nobody is likely
to spend significant political resources to resolve issues relating
Turkey in the nearest future. It is becoming a more acceptable tactics
to ignore Turkish objectives and requirements, including within NATO.
It is assumed that close cooperation with NATO and the EU,
strengthening the Armenian armed forces with the assistance of the
Western community, acquisition of weapons from NATO and EU member
states at reasonable prices and other preferential arrangements is
an important direction of Armenia's security.
At the same time, military presence in NATO plans or strengthening
of functionality of the South Caucasus is not expected in the South
Caucasus. NATO does not intend to boost political efforts to prevent
military actions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. NATO means its
reputation as a factor of prevention of military actions.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33369#sthash.oEsKmHcG.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 29 December 2014, 17:08
NATO's concept of "soft power" means elaboration of NATO regional
policy which covers regional issues, as well as includes new partners.
Decisions made at Chicago Summit remain topical, and the problem is not
the concept but the lack of necessary means. Wales Summit put forth
ambitious objectives, and the U.S. and leading countries of Europe,
including France and Germany, support these decisions and intentions.
The problems relating to the unprecedented threat of the Islamic State
have necessitated revision of some NATO problems, understanding that
it is necessary to get down to decisive actions with the existing
resources.
The countries of Eastern Europe, including Georgia and Armenia,
encounter big issues in the economic and social sphere, there are
serious political problems, including in the sphere of foreign policy,
relating to external conflicts. Though Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan
are participating in the peacekeeping actions in Afghanistan, their
role is more important in terms of military and other transit. This
is an important matter, and these countries implement large-scale
tasks in logistics.
Now that NATO troops are being withdrawn from Afghanistan, South
Caucasus is acquiring special importance but over time after
implementation of these objectives South Caucasus may lose its
importance to NATO.
It is hard to tell how long this period will last. However, the
countries of the region must realize that the role of the South
Caucasus is going to change along with the objectives of NATO and
the United States.
One can state with confidence that NATO and the United States will
maintain a significant level of military presence in Central Asia,
which will define the function of military transit in the South
Caucasus.
Armenia has missed a lot in cooperation with NATO but now cooperation
is being accelerated, and the alliance is accepting this with great
interest and approval. Armenia is in a complicated situation and is
facing the prospect of continuing arms race because Azerbaijan bid
on buying a lot of weapons. This has enabled Russia to impose vassal
relations on Armenia.
Methods of political regulation are highly important but balance of
forces may be violated in the region, which boosts the risks and
threats of war in which neither NATO, nor the European Union are
interested. For this purpose, several states, including Germany and
France, set to discuss supply of arms to Armenia, considering its
financial situation. Formally, this does not concern NATO and is the
sovereign right of separate countries but NATO-Armenia cooperation
is highly important to the solution of these problems.
Since Armenia has strong commitments to Russia and CSTO, its
initiatives for cooperation with NATO are limited though, nevertheless,
development of relations is important.
It would be easier for Armenia to develop relations with NATO if the
purpose set were to join the alliance instead of some projects of
cooperation with new partners. In this case, Armenia would have to
put forth more comprehensible conceptual and specific issues.
Turkey has active participation in the preparedness of the Azerbaijani
armed forces, development of its military industry. Apparently,
Azerbaijan will make a decision on resumption of war when it agrees
with Turkey.
Now Turkey submits to NATO assessments of preparedness of the
Azerbaijani armed forces, considering it insufficient. On the whole,
Turkey finds that Azerbaijan is not ready for war. The agreement on
mutual assistance between Turkey and Azerbaijan will hardly matter
as a mechanism for Turkish military intervention.
Turkey may intervene either by its sovereign right or by the UN
decision. However, it is hard to assume that the UN will make such
a decision but in this case NATO cannot approve unless circumstances
of aggression against Turkey are present. Turkey's participation will
be indirect, "volunteers" may take part in the military actions.
The development of relations of NATO and the European Union with the
states of the South Caucasus is based on the possibility of avoidance
of military conflicts and continuation of integration.
The United States is negotiating with Turkey within NATO over issues
relating to Armenia. Germany, France and the United Kingdom may also
conduct such negotiations but these states have no wish and either
ignore Turkey's position or address those issues to the United States.
Experts think controversies between the United States and Turkey,
as well as NATO and Turkey have not been settled, and the prospect
of normalization of those relations is not clear. Nobody is likely
to spend significant political resources to resolve issues relating
Turkey in the nearest future. It is becoming a more acceptable tactics
to ignore Turkish objectives and requirements, including within NATO.
It is assumed that close cooperation with NATO and the EU,
strengthening the Armenian armed forces with the assistance of the
Western community, acquisition of weapons from NATO and EU member
states at reasonable prices and other preferential arrangements is
an important direction of Armenia's security.
At the same time, military presence in NATO plans or strengthening
of functionality of the South Caucasus is not expected in the South
Caucasus. NATO does not intend to boost political efforts to prevent
military actions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. NATO means its
reputation as a factor of prevention of military actions.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33369#sthash.oEsKmHcG.dpuf