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ERDOGAN'S EGYPTIAN NIGHTMARE
by Burak Bekdil
December 30, 2014 at 4:00 am
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4984/erdogan-egypt
Erdogan was happy. At least until a few days ago....
Erdogan probably did not know the Emir of Qatar's next move on the
Middle Eastern chessboard.
Turkey aspires to be a regional leader with no, little or problematic
dialogue with about a dozen countries in its region.
Back in 2011, everything ostensibly was coming up roses between Turkey
and Egypt. In a speech that year, then-Turkish President Abdullah
Gul mentioned "...an axis of democracy of the two biggest nations in
our region [Turkey and Egypt], from the north to the south, from the
Black Sea down to the Nile Valley..."
In September 2011, then-Prime Minister [now President] Recep Tayyip
Erdogan found an emotional hero's welcome at Cairo's Tahrir Square.
Tens of thousands of Egyptians had flocked to the Cairo airport to
welcome him. Streets were decorated with posters of Erdogan.
In early 2012, a survey by TESEV, a Turkish think-tank, found that
Turkey was the most popular country for the residents of seven Arab
countries, including Egypt.
But against that glittering backdrop, this author wrote in June 2011:
"For Ankara, Cairo can be the new Damascus until another capital
becomes the new Cairo. At that time, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,
Erdogan's one-time best regional ally, had already become his worst
regional nemesis.
The Turkish-Egyptian love affair would, in fact, be quite short-lived.
In August 2013, about a month after General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in
Egypt toppled the Muslim Brotherhood rule of President Mohammed Morsi,
Erdogan appeared on TV, reading -- in an unusually soft voice --
a letter by the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed al-Beltagy. The letter
was written to Beltagy's daughter Asmaa, a 17-year-old girl, who had
been killed in Cairo when security forces stormed two protest camps
occupied by supporters of the deposed president. Poor Asmaa had been
shot in the chest and back.
"I believe you have been loyal to your commitment to God, and He has
been to you," her father wrote in the letter. "Otherwise, He would
not have called you to His presence before me." Erdogan's tears
were visible.
Later, Asmaa became another symbol for Turkish Islamists; Erdogan
cheered party fans with the four-finger "Rabia" sign, in reference
to his solidarity with the Muslim Brotherhood, and as a sign of
his endearment for the unfortunate girl. Even on the playing field,
a few footballers made the same sign after scoring.
In this image, widely circulated in social media, Turkey's then-Prime
Minister [now President] Recep Tayyip Erdogan flashes the Egyptian
Muslim Brotherhood's four-fingered "Rabia" sign.
After the coup in Egypt, when el-Sisi ran for president and won
the elections, Turkey's Erdogan declared them "null and void." And
not just that. Erdogan also said that he did not view el-Sisi as
"president of Egypt." At another time, he said, "Turkey would not
recognize the coup regime in Egypt." Last July, he called el-Sisi
"an illegitimate tyrant" and a "coup-maker."
Meanwhile, neither was Erdogan a "rock star" in Cairo nor was Turkey
"the most popular country." Egyptian non-governmental organizations
[NGOs] called on Egyptians and Arabs to boycott Turkish goods and
soap operas. Egypt's intellectuals, writers and businessmen were
recommending a break in Egypt's relations with Turkey because "they
were disappointed." Egypt unilaterally cancelled both visa-free travel
for Turkish citizens and a transit agreement for Turkish trucks.
In the anti-el-Sisi campaign, Turkey was not alone. Its only regional
ally, Qatar, fully supported Turkey against Egypt's elected "coup
leader." Erdogan was happy. At least until a few days ago....
In Ankara, Erdogan was all smiles when he offered a red-carpet ceremony
to the visiting Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.
Happy to have his best ally as a guest, Erdogan probably did not know
the Emir's next move on the Middle Eastern chessboard.
A few days after al-Thani's merry visit to Ankara, Qatar announced
its determination to thaw ties with Egypt, ending its alliance with
Turkey over "Egypt's illegitimate tyrant."
"The security of Egypt is important for the security of Qatar ... the
two countries are linked by deep and fraternal ties," ran a statement
from the office of al-Thani on Dec. 21. It was a real cold shower
on Ankara -- and Erdogan. The statement had come one day after
el-Sisi met in Cairo with a Qatari envoy, suggesting a possible
thaw in relations. After the meeting, el-Sisi's office issued a
statement saying, "Egypt looks forward to a new era that ends past
disagreements." Apparently, the Egyptian-Qatari reconciliation had been
brokered by Saudi Arabia and, once again, Turkey was the odd one out.
In its immediate vicinity, Turkey does not have diplomatic relations
with three countries -- Armenia, Cyprus and Syria -- and has deeply
problematic diplomatic relations with two countries: Israel and Egypt.
This situation is not sustainable.
Even Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc has said that Turkey should
repair its relations with Egypt. But this is not an easy task. In the
unlikely event of a reconciliation, Erdogan's previous big words on
el-Sisi the coup-maker will make him look like a leader shaking hands
with an "illegitimate tyrant."
On Dec. 24, Turkey's foreign ministry spokesman said that bilateral
ties with Egypt could "normalize if the country properly returns to
democracy, if the Egyptian people's free will is reflected in politics
and social life." Meaning, no normalization. The spokesman would not
comment on Qatar's policy change on Egypt.
Turkey aspires to be a regional leader with no, little or problematic
dialogue with about a dozen countries in its region. Erdogan's top
advisors have found a nice euphemism for this situation: "precious
loneliness." In reality, it is rather a blend of miscalculation and
over self-confidence.
Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hurriyet
Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
by Burak Bekdil
December 30, 2014 at 4:00 am
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4984/erdogan-egypt
Erdogan was happy. At least until a few days ago....
Erdogan probably did not know the Emir of Qatar's next move on the
Middle Eastern chessboard.
Turkey aspires to be a regional leader with no, little or problematic
dialogue with about a dozen countries in its region.
Back in 2011, everything ostensibly was coming up roses between Turkey
and Egypt. In a speech that year, then-Turkish President Abdullah
Gul mentioned "...an axis of democracy of the two biggest nations in
our region [Turkey and Egypt], from the north to the south, from the
Black Sea down to the Nile Valley..."
In September 2011, then-Prime Minister [now President] Recep Tayyip
Erdogan found an emotional hero's welcome at Cairo's Tahrir Square.
Tens of thousands of Egyptians had flocked to the Cairo airport to
welcome him. Streets were decorated with posters of Erdogan.
In early 2012, a survey by TESEV, a Turkish think-tank, found that
Turkey was the most popular country for the residents of seven Arab
countries, including Egypt.
But against that glittering backdrop, this author wrote in June 2011:
"For Ankara, Cairo can be the new Damascus until another capital
becomes the new Cairo. At that time, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,
Erdogan's one-time best regional ally, had already become his worst
regional nemesis.
The Turkish-Egyptian love affair would, in fact, be quite short-lived.
In August 2013, about a month after General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in
Egypt toppled the Muslim Brotherhood rule of President Mohammed Morsi,
Erdogan appeared on TV, reading -- in an unusually soft voice --
a letter by the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed al-Beltagy. The letter
was written to Beltagy's daughter Asmaa, a 17-year-old girl, who had
been killed in Cairo when security forces stormed two protest camps
occupied by supporters of the deposed president. Poor Asmaa had been
shot in the chest and back.
"I believe you have been loyal to your commitment to God, and He has
been to you," her father wrote in the letter. "Otherwise, He would
not have called you to His presence before me." Erdogan's tears
were visible.
Later, Asmaa became another symbol for Turkish Islamists; Erdogan
cheered party fans with the four-finger "Rabia" sign, in reference
to his solidarity with the Muslim Brotherhood, and as a sign of
his endearment for the unfortunate girl. Even on the playing field,
a few footballers made the same sign after scoring.
In this image, widely circulated in social media, Turkey's then-Prime
Minister [now President] Recep Tayyip Erdogan flashes the Egyptian
Muslim Brotherhood's four-fingered "Rabia" sign.
After the coup in Egypt, when el-Sisi ran for president and won
the elections, Turkey's Erdogan declared them "null and void." And
not just that. Erdogan also said that he did not view el-Sisi as
"president of Egypt." At another time, he said, "Turkey would not
recognize the coup regime in Egypt." Last July, he called el-Sisi
"an illegitimate tyrant" and a "coup-maker."
Meanwhile, neither was Erdogan a "rock star" in Cairo nor was Turkey
"the most popular country." Egyptian non-governmental organizations
[NGOs] called on Egyptians and Arabs to boycott Turkish goods and
soap operas. Egypt's intellectuals, writers and businessmen were
recommending a break in Egypt's relations with Turkey because "they
were disappointed." Egypt unilaterally cancelled both visa-free travel
for Turkish citizens and a transit agreement for Turkish trucks.
In the anti-el-Sisi campaign, Turkey was not alone. Its only regional
ally, Qatar, fully supported Turkey against Egypt's elected "coup
leader." Erdogan was happy. At least until a few days ago....
In Ankara, Erdogan was all smiles when he offered a red-carpet ceremony
to the visiting Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.
Happy to have his best ally as a guest, Erdogan probably did not know
the Emir's next move on the Middle Eastern chessboard.
A few days after al-Thani's merry visit to Ankara, Qatar announced
its determination to thaw ties with Egypt, ending its alliance with
Turkey over "Egypt's illegitimate tyrant."
"The security of Egypt is important for the security of Qatar ... the
two countries are linked by deep and fraternal ties," ran a statement
from the office of al-Thani on Dec. 21. It was a real cold shower
on Ankara -- and Erdogan. The statement had come one day after
el-Sisi met in Cairo with a Qatari envoy, suggesting a possible
thaw in relations. After the meeting, el-Sisi's office issued a
statement saying, "Egypt looks forward to a new era that ends past
disagreements." Apparently, the Egyptian-Qatari reconciliation had been
brokered by Saudi Arabia and, once again, Turkey was the odd one out.
In its immediate vicinity, Turkey does not have diplomatic relations
with three countries -- Armenia, Cyprus and Syria -- and has deeply
problematic diplomatic relations with two countries: Israel and Egypt.
This situation is not sustainable.
Even Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc has said that Turkey should
repair its relations with Egypt. But this is not an easy task. In the
unlikely event of a reconciliation, Erdogan's previous big words on
el-Sisi the coup-maker will make him look like a leader shaking hands
with an "illegitimate tyrant."
On Dec. 24, Turkey's foreign ministry spokesman said that bilateral
ties with Egypt could "normalize if the country properly returns to
democracy, if the Egyptian people's free will is reflected in politics
and social life." Meaning, no normalization. The spokesman would not
comment on Qatar's policy change on Egypt.
Turkey aspires to be a regional leader with no, little or problematic
dialogue with about a dozen countries in its region. Erdogan's top
advisors have found a nice euphemism for this situation: "precious
loneliness." In reality, it is rather a blend of miscalculation and
over self-confidence.
Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hurriyet
Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.