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PARIS SEEKS BIGGER SLICE OF TURKEY
Today's Zaman, Turkey
February 4, 2014 Tuesday 12:36 PM EST
by AMANDA PAUL
In 2011, Ankara's 'bete noire', former French President Nicholas
Sarkozy, came to Turkey for a G-8 Summit. He spent just five hours
in the country, only calling on Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
for a very brief and rather frosty exchange of views. Indeed, until
the visit of President Francois Hollande on Jan. 27, it had been more
than two decades since the last state visit.
To say that Sarkozy was skeptical about Turkey's EU accession process
would be an understatement. From his first day in office Sarkozy made
it abundantly clear that he would never support Turkey's EU membership
aspirations, frequently declaring Turkey to be too culturally different
and not a part of Europe. He unnecessarily blocked a number of Ankara's
negotiating chapters, going out of his way to derail the process. And
for what? Ultimately his approach led to a poisoning of bilateral
ties which proved more detrimental to Paris than Ankara given Turkey's
economic boom and France's decline. Furthermore his anti-Turkey stance
was of no use at the election box when in 2012 French voters, tired
of Sarkozy's style and with the country in economic dire straits,
kicked him out.
Hollande is a different kettle of fish. Since coming to power he has
had a more conciliatory approach. He wants to deepen ties with Ankara
rather than undermine them. During his visit he repeated several times
that 'Turkey is in Europe.' He was accompanied by a large entourage
of senior ministers and the CEOs of major French companies. He wants
to recover and boost what Sarkozy lost. The market share of France
in Turkey fell 6 percent to 3 percent between 2009 and 2012. Hence
the visit was more about economics than politics; he hardly referred
to the current crisis in the county.
While Turkey is keen to broaden its ties with France, it wants to
be sure that France will support Turkey's accession to the EU and
secondly that France will not be overly active in the upcoming 100th
anniversary of the Armenian genocide in 2015, given France's large
Armenian diaspora. Yet while Hollande seems to have a more pragmatic
approach, he was clear that France's fundamental stance on the Armenian
genocide was unchanged, stating 'uncovering history is always painful,
but must be done.' On the EU front Hollande suggested that he could
unblock a further two or three chapters which was welcome news although
he was not explicit which ones. This also does not mean they would
be opened as Ankara may still have to meet the opening benchmarks
and more importantly the EU needs to be assured that democracy in
Turkey is back on track before going ahead. The opening of chapters
can only be done with unanimity, hence if one member state is not in
accord the process is blocked.
Hollande has a rational approach. He wants to have the best of
bilateral ties with Turkey and hence is indicating a willingness to
remove unnecessary obstacles. This does not change the overall French
view that Turkey should not be allowed in. Whether Turkey will ever be
a member remains to be seen -- I have a never say never approach -- and
other problems remain, including the unresolved Cyprus issue. Clearly,
it would be a long time in the future, and Monsieur Hollande would be
long gone so it would not be his problem. Today he has far more burning
problems to deal with, including the state of the French economy and
his sinking popularity. If greater economic cooperation with Turkey
can boost the French economy, then he will clear the path for that.
Furthermore, as Hollande pointed out, France will have a referendum
on the question of Turkish membership. If such a referendum were
to take place today, the result would not be favorable for Turkey,
with well over 50 percent of the French population being opposed. Can
this figure be reversed? I believe it would be an uphill struggle, yet
nothing is impossible and who knows what may happen in the future. By
that point Turkey itself may decide that EU membership is not for it.
Today the key issue should be keeping the process alive as it has
shown to be crucial in terms of Turkey's democratization. At a time
when democracy in Turkey is being undermined, all efforts should be
made to genuinely reengage Ankara in the journey.
Today's Zaman, Turkey
February 4, 2014 Tuesday 12:36 PM EST
by AMANDA PAUL
In 2011, Ankara's 'bete noire', former French President Nicholas
Sarkozy, came to Turkey for a G-8 Summit. He spent just five hours
in the country, only calling on Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
for a very brief and rather frosty exchange of views. Indeed, until
the visit of President Francois Hollande on Jan. 27, it had been more
than two decades since the last state visit.
To say that Sarkozy was skeptical about Turkey's EU accession process
would be an understatement. From his first day in office Sarkozy made
it abundantly clear that he would never support Turkey's EU membership
aspirations, frequently declaring Turkey to be too culturally different
and not a part of Europe. He unnecessarily blocked a number of Ankara's
negotiating chapters, going out of his way to derail the process. And
for what? Ultimately his approach led to a poisoning of bilateral
ties which proved more detrimental to Paris than Ankara given Turkey's
economic boom and France's decline. Furthermore his anti-Turkey stance
was of no use at the election box when in 2012 French voters, tired
of Sarkozy's style and with the country in economic dire straits,
kicked him out.
Hollande is a different kettle of fish. Since coming to power he has
had a more conciliatory approach. He wants to deepen ties with Ankara
rather than undermine them. During his visit he repeated several times
that 'Turkey is in Europe.' He was accompanied by a large entourage
of senior ministers and the CEOs of major French companies. He wants
to recover and boost what Sarkozy lost. The market share of France
in Turkey fell 6 percent to 3 percent between 2009 and 2012. Hence
the visit was more about economics than politics; he hardly referred
to the current crisis in the county.
While Turkey is keen to broaden its ties with France, it wants to
be sure that France will support Turkey's accession to the EU and
secondly that France will not be overly active in the upcoming 100th
anniversary of the Armenian genocide in 2015, given France's large
Armenian diaspora. Yet while Hollande seems to have a more pragmatic
approach, he was clear that France's fundamental stance on the Armenian
genocide was unchanged, stating 'uncovering history is always painful,
but must be done.' On the EU front Hollande suggested that he could
unblock a further two or three chapters which was welcome news although
he was not explicit which ones. This also does not mean they would
be opened as Ankara may still have to meet the opening benchmarks
and more importantly the EU needs to be assured that democracy in
Turkey is back on track before going ahead. The opening of chapters
can only be done with unanimity, hence if one member state is not in
accord the process is blocked.
Hollande has a rational approach. He wants to have the best of
bilateral ties with Turkey and hence is indicating a willingness to
remove unnecessary obstacles. This does not change the overall French
view that Turkey should not be allowed in. Whether Turkey will ever be
a member remains to be seen -- I have a never say never approach -- and
other problems remain, including the unresolved Cyprus issue. Clearly,
it would be a long time in the future, and Monsieur Hollande would be
long gone so it would not be his problem. Today he has far more burning
problems to deal with, including the state of the French economy and
his sinking popularity. If greater economic cooperation with Turkey
can boost the French economy, then he will clear the path for that.
Furthermore, as Hollande pointed out, France will have a referendum
on the question of Turkish membership. If such a referendum were
to take place today, the result would not be favorable for Turkey,
with well over 50 percent of the French population being opposed. Can
this figure be reversed? I believe it would be an uphill struggle, yet
nothing is impossible and who knows what may happen in the future. By
that point Turkey itself may decide that EU membership is not for it.
Today the key issue should be keeping the process alive as it has
shown to be crucial in terms of Turkey's democratization. At a time
when democracy in Turkey is being undermined, all efforts should be
made to genuinely reengage Ankara in the journey.