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ANALYSIS: EUROMAIDAN'S TRIUMPH IN UKRAINE; WHAT'S IN IT FOR ARMENIA?
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/52217/armenia_ukraine_maidan_analysis
ANALYSIS | 24.02.14 | 10:41
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The developments in Ukraine and their possible consequences for
other post-Soviet countries are being discussed these days. What was
dubbed Euromaidan, continuous street protests in Kiev and elsewhere in
Ukraine against the decision to ditch an Association Agreement with
the European Union that started last November, has led to President
Viktor Yanukovych's ouster and arrival of a new, apparently pro-EU
force to the power in Ukraine.
Western media do not exclude that the protests from Ukraine could
spread to Russia and turn against its leader Vladimir Putin, the
architect of the Eurasian Union seen as a rival to European integration
projects that had been offered to a number of post-Soviet countries,
including Armenia.
Experts also say that if Ukraine terminates its current economic
and military agreements with Russia, it may lead to the failure of
Putin's Eurasian Union that Armenia has been moving towards after
unexpectedly quitting the process of signing an Association Agreement
with Brussels last September.
Recently, Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan stated that the
preparations for Armenia's accession to the Customs Union have been
completed by 50 percent. An agreement on Armenia's joining the trade
bloc currently comprised of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan is due to
be signed in May along with the agreement on the establishment of
the Eurasian Union. However, there are now serious doubts that the
agreements will be signed in time.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko spoke about this last week.
He said that there were some doubts that the schedule will be met and
called for efforts to ensure that the agreements are signed in time.
However, the developments in Ukraine may upset all plans.
In particular, if Ukraine signs an Association Agreement with the
EU, revises its gas contracts with Russia and tries to denounce
the agreement on the Russian naval base in the Black Sea, it will
fundamentally change Russia's position. Especially if Kyrgyzstan does
not sign an agreement on the Customs Union and the economies of the
current members of the CU continue to fall rapidly as it has been
the case in recent weeks.
Political analyst Igor Muradyan believes that the West will not stop
attempts to establish more friendly relations with Armenia, despite
efforts by Russia not opposed by the Armenian leadership to isolate
Armenia from regional projects. The West will offer projects favorable
for Armenia to diversify its Russian-oriented economy.
And there are already such projects - the purchase by an American
company of the Vorotan cascade of hydro-power plants and the offer
by an UAE-registered (presumably Chinese or American) company that
intends to invest in the construction of an Iran-Armenia railway.
British, American and German investors plan to increase their presence
in the mining sector of Armenia, and for this purpose they will
convene a major international conference in Yerevan in early March.
There are also other signs that the West will 'inundate' Armenia with
lucrative projects.
Some experts also do not exclude closer cooperation between Armenia and
NATO. There is some cooperation already now as Armenian servicemen are
taking part in NATO-led peacekeeping missions, however, Armenia has so
far declared that it is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security
Treaty Organization and, in fact, cannot work more closely with NATO.
Diversification of the trade, energy and security systems could
allow Armenia to lessen its dependence on Russia and reconsider its
participation in Eurasian and other unions. Evaluating this possibility
in Armenia many say that Armenians are not Ukrainians and are not
ready to go against the Kremlin to defend their sovereignty at the
cost of their lives. Kentron TV commentator Armen Dulyan, for example,
says that the Armenian leaders made the right decision on September
3, abandoning European integration. "Otherwise, what is going on in
Ukraine today, would be taking place in Armenia," he said.
Editor-in-chief of the Lragir.am online portal Haikazn Ghahriyan,
on the contrary, believes that the September 3 precedent put the
Ukrainian authorities in a vulnerable position before Moscow and
contributed to the bloody scenario.
From: Baghdasarian
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/52217/armenia_ukraine_maidan_analysis
ANALYSIS | 24.02.14 | 10:41
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The developments in Ukraine and their possible consequences for
other post-Soviet countries are being discussed these days. What was
dubbed Euromaidan, continuous street protests in Kiev and elsewhere in
Ukraine against the decision to ditch an Association Agreement with
the European Union that started last November, has led to President
Viktor Yanukovych's ouster and arrival of a new, apparently pro-EU
force to the power in Ukraine.
Western media do not exclude that the protests from Ukraine could
spread to Russia and turn against its leader Vladimir Putin, the
architect of the Eurasian Union seen as a rival to European integration
projects that had been offered to a number of post-Soviet countries,
including Armenia.
Experts also say that if Ukraine terminates its current economic
and military agreements with Russia, it may lead to the failure of
Putin's Eurasian Union that Armenia has been moving towards after
unexpectedly quitting the process of signing an Association Agreement
with Brussels last September.
Recently, Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan stated that the
preparations for Armenia's accession to the Customs Union have been
completed by 50 percent. An agreement on Armenia's joining the trade
bloc currently comprised of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan is due to
be signed in May along with the agreement on the establishment of
the Eurasian Union. However, there are now serious doubts that the
agreements will be signed in time.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko spoke about this last week.
He said that there were some doubts that the schedule will be met and
called for efforts to ensure that the agreements are signed in time.
However, the developments in Ukraine may upset all plans.
In particular, if Ukraine signs an Association Agreement with the
EU, revises its gas contracts with Russia and tries to denounce
the agreement on the Russian naval base in the Black Sea, it will
fundamentally change Russia's position. Especially if Kyrgyzstan does
not sign an agreement on the Customs Union and the economies of the
current members of the CU continue to fall rapidly as it has been
the case in recent weeks.
Political analyst Igor Muradyan believes that the West will not stop
attempts to establish more friendly relations with Armenia, despite
efforts by Russia not opposed by the Armenian leadership to isolate
Armenia from regional projects. The West will offer projects favorable
for Armenia to diversify its Russian-oriented economy.
And there are already such projects - the purchase by an American
company of the Vorotan cascade of hydro-power plants and the offer
by an UAE-registered (presumably Chinese or American) company that
intends to invest in the construction of an Iran-Armenia railway.
British, American and German investors plan to increase their presence
in the mining sector of Armenia, and for this purpose they will
convene a major international conference in Yerevan in early March.
There are also other signs that the West will 'inundate' Armenia with
lucrative projects.
Some experts also do not exclude closer cooperation between Armenia and
NATO. There is some cooperation already now as Armenian servicemen are
taking part in NATO-led peacekeeping missions, however, Armenia has so
far declared that it is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security
Treaty Organization and, in fact, cannot work more closely with NATO.
Diversification of the trade, energy and security systems could
allow Armenia to lessen its dependence on Russia and reconsider its
participation in Eurasian and other unions. Evaluating this possibility
in Armenia many say that Armenians are not Ukrainians and are not
ready to go against the Kremlin to defend their sovereignty at the
cost of their lives. Kentron TV commentator Armen Dulyan, for example,
says that the Armenian leaders made the right decision on September
3, abandoning European integration. "Otherwise, what is going on in
Ukraine today, would be taking place in Armenia," he said.
Editor-in-chief of the Lragir.am online portal Haikazn Ghahriyan,
on the contrary, believes that the September 3 precedent put the
Ukrainian authorities in a vulnerable position before Moscow and
contributed to the bloody scenario.
From: Baghdasarian