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NEXT DANGEROUS DEAL FOR ARMENIA
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Tuesday, 25 February 2014, 16:22
After his meeting with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in
Sochi on February 24 Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan announced that
they discussed Rosneft's likely investments in Armenia and listened
to the presentation of the head of that company Sechin.
"We listened to the presentation by the president of Rosneft Company
Igor Sechin on their achievements and plans. Around 500 million dollars
are envisaged to invest in Armenia. Over the next week we will have a
substantive decision on the baseline conditions to ensure that they are
fulfilled in the possible minimum period," Tigran Sargsyan announced.
Following the Armenian-Russian gas deals, the so-called
Armenian-Russian chemical deals are expected to be signed with
Rosneft. At least, when investing 500 million dollars and creating
the necessary conditions is concerned, one has to draw parallels with
the gas deal. And the reason is Tigran Sargsyan's comments during
his end-of-year press conference in 2013.
Coming back to the gas deals, the prime minister announced that
a company that makes big investments expects long-term guarantees
without which no investments will be made. Tigran Sargsyan announced
that it goes without saying, so the probability is high with Rosneft.
In other words, Rosneft, like Gasprom, will also expect long-term
guarantees from Armenia.
In addition, this prospect is especially interesting in the context
of Gazprom-Rosneft relations. The two companies are competitors. Most
probably, Rosneft will try to keep up with Gazprom and get similar
guarantees from Armenia.
Hence, in fact, a situation may occur when Gazprom and Rosneft will
share Armenia. At first sight, when two giant companies compete
for investment conditions in Armenia, it will be beneficial for
the economic development of Armenia. Theoretically, it is true but
one important condition is required - state sovereignty that would
regulate the competition of two giants. Meanwhile, Gazprom's example
is a precedent when preconditions are imposed on Armenia that limit
some powers of government institutions. For example, Armenia committed
to refrain from adopting laws or resolutions that will not be in line
with Gazprom's interest.
Is there any guarantee that Rosneft will not require similar legal
safeguards? In that case, it is ingenuous to consider the effect
of competition. Moreover, there is no competition but a mechanism
of dividing Armenia that Moscow promotes through its two economic
giants, Rosneft and Gazprom. In other words, a change of government
is underway in Armenia, not RPA is replaced by PAP or Serzh Sargsyan
by Robert Kocharyan or Levon Ter-Petrosyan but official Yerevan is
replaced by Gazprom and Rosneft.
On the one hand, it is excellent that 500 million dollars are
going to be invested in Armenia (if they are going to be invested
at all). On the other hand, this investment is relative or rather
Armenia is relative because a deal is made on investment in return for
sovereignty. Not Armenia is going to manage and regulate the policy
of investors but the investors are going to regulate the policy of
Armenia. The gas agreement is evidence to this.
To imagine the threat to national security it is enough to remember
that both Gazprom and Rosneft have strategic interest in Turkey
and Azerbaijan. In addition, their interest in these directions is
not limited to the precondition of surrender of sovereignty, unlike
Armenia. There might be dangerous implications for Armenia in case the
two companies pursuing strategic interests in Turkey and Azerbaijan
are tempted to use their influence on Armenia to serve their interests.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31976#sthash.eQFvW5Sr.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Tuesday, 25 February 2014, 16:22
After his meeting with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in
Sochi on February 24 Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan announced that
they discussed Rosneft's likely investments in Armenia and listened
to the presentation of the head of that company Sechin.
"We listened to the presentation by the president of Rosneft Company
Igor Sechin on their achievements and plans. Around 500 million dollars
are envisaged to invest in Armenia. Over the next week we will have a
substantive decision on the baseline conditions to ensure that they are
fulfilled in the possible minimum period," Tigran Sargsyan announced.
Following the Armenian-Russian gas deals, the so-called
Armenian-Russian chemical deals are expected to be signed with
Rosneft. At least, when investing 500 million dollars and creating
the necessary conditions is concerned, one has to draw parallels with
the gas deal. And the reason is Tigran Sargsyan's comments during
his end-of-year press conference in 2013.
Coming back to the gas deals, the prime minister announced that
a company that makes big investments expects long-term guarantees
without which no investments will be made. Tigran Sargsyan announced
that it goes without saying, so the probability is high with Rosneft.
In other words, Rosneft, like Gasprom, will also expect long-term
guarantees from Armenia.
In addition, this prospect is especially interesting in the context
of Gazprom-Rosneft relations. The two companies are competitors. Most
probably, Rosneft will try to keep up with Gazprom and get similar
guarantees from Armenia.
Hence, in fact, a situation may occur when Gazprom and Rosneft will
share Armenia. At first sight, when two giant companies compete
for investment conditions in Armenia, it will be beneficial for
the economic development of Armenia. Theoretically, it is true but
one important condition is required - state sovereignty that would
regulate the competition of two giants. Meanwhile, Gazprom's example
is a precedent when preconditions are imposed on Armenia that limit
some powers of government institutions. For example, Armenia committed
to refrain from adopting laws or resolutions that will not be in line
with Gazprom's interest.
Is there any guarantee that Rosneft will not require similar legal
safeguards? In that case, it is ingenuous to consider the effect
of competition. Moreover, there is no competition but a mechanism
of dividing Armenia that Moscow promotes through its two economic
giants, Rosneft and Gazprom. In other words, a change of government
is underway in Armenia, not RPA is replaced by PAP or Serzh Sargsyan
by Robert Kocharyan or Levon Ter-Petrosyan but official Yerevan is
replaced by Gazprom and Rosneft.
On the one hand, it is excellent that 500 million dollars are
going to be invested in Armenia (if they are going to be invested
at all). On the other hand, this investment is relative or rather
Armenia is relative because a deal is made on investment in return for
sovereignty. Not Armenia is going to manage and regulate the policy
of investors but the investors are going to regulate the policy of
Armenia. The gas agreement is evidence to this.
To imagine the threat to national security it is enough to remember
that both Gazprom and Rosneft have strategic interest in Turkey
and Azerbaijan. In addition, their interest in these directions is
not limited to the precondition of surrender of sovereignty, unlike
Armenia. There might be dangerous implications for Armenia in case the
two companies pursuing strategic interests in Turkey and Azerbaijan
are tempted to use their influence on Armenia to serve their interests.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31976#sthash.eQFvW5Sr.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian