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EU could become neutral mediator and honest broker on Karabakh issue

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  • EU could become neutral mediator and honest broker on Karabakh issue

    EU could become neutral mediator and honest broker on Karabakh issue - expert

    January 05, 2014 | 15:11


    YEREVAN. - The term that describes best the prospects of the
    Nagorno-Karabakh issue in 2014 might be that of cautious pessimism,
    political analyst Gunter Walzenbach told Armenian News-NEWS.am.

    A senior lecturer at the University of the West of England, Bristol,
    Gunter Walzenbach noted that the events around the Vilnius summit and
    the continuing uncertainty around the future shape of the Eastern
    Partnership will have raised awareness among EU decision makers not
    just for the security concerns of individual countries, but also for
    the strategic foreign policy orientations of Russia.

    `In this context further progress or deterioration of EU-Russia
    relations will also have repercussions for `frozen conflicts' such as
    the one in Nagorno-Karabakh. While measures for successful conflict
    resolution were also part of the drafting and negotiation process of
    the new association agreements, it remains doubtful whether the EU
    foreign policy process can now produce an approach towards conflict
    resolution that is more coherent and consistent than previous
    efforts', he said.

    Walzenbach added that the instruments in the hand of the newly
    established European External Action Service (EEAS) are limited and
    the EU motto of `more for more' is no convincing replacement for
    stronger forms of economic and political conditionality.

    However, from the expert's point of view, this is not to say that
    previous efforts and EU involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue did
    not proceed on the right track.

    `In principle, the EU's soft power image, concrete action in terms of
    civil society engagement on both sides and a strengthened role for the
    Union's Special Representative can surely help in the long run to
    build credibility as well as the necessary expertise to become the
    neutral mediator and honest broker so much needed in the Southern
    Caucasus', Gunter Walzenbach emphasized. Yet, formally, he noted, all
    the main responsibility still rests with the OSCE Minsk Group, and
    disagreement will continue as to whether France is an adequate proxy
    for the EU as a whole within this forum.

    The expert believes that whatever type of specific solution might
    eventually be championed by the negotiating parties in the case of
    Nagorno-Karabakh, it will have profound repercussion for other
    `frozen' conflicts in the same or related regional settings.

    `Yet a combined or integrated approach in relation to conflict
    resolution in the cases of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Transnistria,
    is of an order to tall for current EU diplomacy. In this
    constellation, perhaps, more has to be expected from the political
    leadership of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Further meetings at
    presidential level have been confirmed and sound promising, to say the
    least', he noted, adding that, in part, though, these are a reflection
    of the degree of relative stability both leaders enjoy in their
    respective political system.

    While there are no convincing arguments to be found that recurrent
    skirmishes and power gestures turn into a `hot conflict', according to
    Gunter Walzenbach, genuine conflict resolution seems equally remote.

    `In the current state of affairs negotiation teams, diplomats and
    decision-makers may have not much choice but look out for new windows
    of opportunities coming along with broader changes in Russia's
    relations with the West' emphasized the expert.


    News from Armenia - NEWS.am


    From: Baghdasarian
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