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Today's Zaman, Turkey
Jan 7 2014
Syria threatens stability in Turkey, US think tank report warns
7 January 2014 /ANKARA, TODAY'S ZAMAN
A report released last month by the American think tank the Council on
Foreign Relations (CFR) has warned that an intensification of the
civil war in Syria could prompt a limited external intervention by the
US or its allies in 2014 and that the ongoing conflict threatens the
stability of US allies, especially Turkey and Jordan.
The report, titled `Preventive Priorities Survey 2014' ranks conflicts
around the globe according to how likely they are to occur or grow and
how high the potential impact is on US interests.
CFR asked more than 1,200 US government officials, academics and
experts to evaluate a list of 30 conflicts that could break out or
escalate over the next year, and the results show that Syria is
considered one of the hot spots.
`Ongoing civil strife threatens the stability of US allies,
particularly Turkey and Jordan. Additionally, increased regional
instability could create a safe haven for extremist groups active in
Syria, such as the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra, the Islamic State of
Iraq and the Levant and Hezbollah,' said the report.
The New York-based CFR, specializing in US foreign policy and
international affairs, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership
organization, publisher and think tank.
The report said the civil war in Syria shows no sign of abating, as
opposition groups continue to battle government forces and the
militant groups allied with them. The US and Russia are working with
the United Nation's Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical
Weapons (OPCW) to effectively dismantle Syria's chemical weapons
arsenal. But the report warned, `An intensification of the civil war
in Syria could reverse these gains and even prompt a limited external
intervention by the United States or its allies.' Syria failed to meet
a Dec. 31, 2013 deadline to hand over its chemical weapons to
international authorities. The OPCW cited security concerns, bad
weather and bureaucratic challenges.
`More than 110,000 people have been killed, 4.25 million have been
internally displaced, and two million have fled as refugees to
neighboring countries. The country is increasingly divided along
sectarian lines,' the report said.
The report also indicates that the spillover from Syria's civil war
and violence in Afghanistan as coalition forces draw down are among
next year's top conflict prevention priorities for US policymakers.
The most urgent concerns also include terror attacks or cyber attacks
on the US, military strikes against Iran and a crisis in North Korea.
The CFR report categorized the conflicts into three tiers, in order of
priority to US policymakers. While the Syrian civil war is among those
in the first tier, `resumption of conflict in the Kurdish-dominated
regions of Turkey and the Middle East' is in the last tier, indicating
that the issue is not a top priority for US policymakers.
`The Kurdish areas of Turkey and the greater Middle East could
experience increased violence in the coming months. In Turkey, peace
talks between the government and the militant Kurdish Worker's Party
(PKK) have stalled since a ceasefire was agreed to in March 2013,'
said the report, adding that PKK members are refusing to withdraw from
Turkey to Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) territory in northern
Iraq.
The report also warned that the deepening ties between Syrian Kurds
and the PKK, who may want to establish an autonomous state under the
pretext of Syrian civil war, are most worrisome.
Syrian Kurds, the report said, constitute about 10 percent of Syria's
population and who control a large area of northern Syria, have been
fighting the central government in the ongoing civil war and have now
secured definitive control of the Kurdish area of northern Syria.
`If the Kurds succeed in establishing an autonomous state, the
secessionist movements in other Kurdish areas of the Middle East could
accelerate, intensifying ongoing sectarian conflicts in the region.
Heightened terrorist activity by Kurdish separatists is a growing
concern for the United States, which has designated the PKK as a
foreign terrorist organization and wishes to maintain the territorial
integrity of states in the region,' said the report.
Another third tier conflict in Turkey's region listed in the report is
the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
The report said that Nagorno-Karabakh faces an increased risk of
renewed hostilities due to the failure of mediation efforts,
escalating militarization and frequent ceasefire violations.
`Although 95 percent of Nagorno-Karabakh is ethnically Armenian, it is
internationally recognized as being part of Azerbaijan. The conflict
over the secessionist territory officially ended with a ceasefire in
1993, following a six-year war, but has the potential to flare up
again,' said the report.
The report said that the mediation efforts led by the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group have failed to
produce a permanent solution to the conflict and without successful
mediation efforts, ceasefire violations and escalating tensions
threaten to renew a military conflict between the countries and
destabilize the South Caucasus region.
`Increased tensions could also disrupt oil and gas exports from the
region, since Azerbaijan is a significant oil and gas exporter to
Europe and Central Asia, producing 850,000 barrels of oil per day
while harming U.S. economic interests and creating a spike in the
global oil market,' stressed the report.
North Korea ranked high on the report because of the nuclear test it
conducted in February 2013, as well as US estimates that it has enough
plutonium to produce five nuclear weapons.
Another priority issue for US mentioned in the report is Iran. It
notes that while prospects for a breakthrough in the nuclear standoff
with Iran have recently improved with the November interim agreement
between Iran and Western powers aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear
ambitions in exchange for easing sanctions on Iran, but a lasting
settlement of the dispute is still uncertain.
`There are still obstacles in the way of a long-term agreement that
both satisfies Iran's desire to develop nuclear energy and reassures
its international counterparts, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, of
its peaceful intent. The threat of renewed tensions stemming from a
breakdown of the interim agreement and even the possibility of
military strikes cannot be discounted,' said the report.
Regarding Iraq, the report said the dividing lines between religious
groups have widened. Shi'a groups, which constitute more than 60
percent of the population, have been able to influence the country's
political atmosphere. `If sectarian violence continues to take hold of
the country, Iraq may plunge into a deeper state of chaos and
potentially into a state of civil war,' said the report.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-336027-syria-threatens-stability-in-turkey-us-think-tank-report-warns.html
Jan 7 2014
Syria threatens stability in Turkey, US think tank report warns
7 January 2014 /ANKARA, TODAY'S ZAMAN
A report released last month by the American think tank the Council on
Foreign Relations (CFR) has warned that an intensification of the
civil war in Syria could prompt a limited external intervention by the
US or its allies in 2014 and that the ongoing conflict threatens the
stability of US allies, especially Turkey and Jordan.
The report, titled `Preventive Priorities Survey 2014' ranks conflicts
around the globe according to how likely they are to occur or grow and
how high the potential impact is on US interests.
CFR asked more than 1,200 US government officials, academics and
experts to evaluate a list of 30 conflicts that could break out or
escalate over the next year, and the results show that Syria is
considered one of the hot spots.
`Ongoing civil strife threatens the stability of US allies,
particularly Turkey and Jordan. Additionally, increased regional
instability could create a safe haven for extremist groups active in
Syria, such as the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra, the Islamic State of
Iraq and the Levant and Hezbollah,' said the report.
The New York-based CFR, specializing in US foreign policy and
international affairs, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership
organization, publisher and think tank.
The report said the civil war in Syria shows no sign of abating, as
opposition groups continue to battle government forces and the
militant groups allied with them. The US and Russia are working with
the United Nation's Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical
Weapons (OPCW) to effectively dismantle Syria's chemical weapons
arsenal. But the report warned, `An intensification of the civil war
in Syria could reverse these gains and even prompt a limited external
intervention by the United States or its allies.' Syria failed to meet
a Dec. 31, 2013 deadline to hand over its chemical weapons to
international authorities. The OPCW cited security concerns, bad
weather and bureaucratic challenges.
`More than 110,000 people have been killed, 4.25 million have been
internally displaced, and two million have fled as refugees to
neighboring countries. The country is increasingly divided along
sectarian lines,' the report said.
The report also indicates that the spillover from Syria's civil war
and violence in Afghanistan as coalition forces draw down are among
next year's top conflict prevention priorities for US policymakers.
The most urgent concerns also include terror attacks or cyber attacks
on the US, military strikes against Iran and a crisis in North Korea.
The CFR report categorized the conflicts into three tiers, in order of
priority to US policymakers. While the Syrian civil war is among those
in the first tier, `resumption of conflict in the Kurdish-dominated
regions of Turkey and the Middle East' is in the last tier, indicating
that the issue is not a top priority for US policymakers.
`The Kurdish areas of Turkey and the greater Middle East could
experience increased violence in the coming months. In Turkey, peace
talks between the government and the militant Kurdish Worker's Party
(PKK) have stalled since a ceasefire was agreed to in March 2013,'
said the report, adding that PKK members are refusing to withdraw from
Turkey to Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) territory in northern
Iraq.
The report also warned that the deepening ties between Syrian Kurds
and the PKK, who may want to establish an autonomous state under the
pretext of Syrian civil war, are most worrisome.
Syrian Kurds, the report said, constitute about 10 percent of Syria's
population and who control a large area of northern Syria, have been
fighting the central government in the ongoing civil war and have now
secured definitive control of the Kurdish area of northern Syria.
`If the Kurds succeed in establishing an autonomous state, the
secessionist movements in other Kurdish areas of the Middle East could
accelerate, intensifying ongoing sectarian conflicts in the region.
Heightened terrorist activity by Kurdish separatists is a growing
concern for the United States, which has designated the PKK as a
foreign terrorist organization and wishes to maintain the territorial
integrity of states in the region,' said the report.
Another third tier conflict in Turkey's region listed in the report is
the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
The report said that Nagorno-Karabakh faces an increased risk of
renewed hostilities due to the failure of mediation efforts,
escalating militarization and frequent ceasefire violations.
`Although 95 percent of Nagorno-Karabakh is ethnically Armenian, it is
internationally recognized as being part of Azerbaijan. The conflict
over the secessionist territory officially ended with a ceasefire in
1993, following a six-year war, but has the potential to flare up
again,' said the report.
The report said that the mediation efforts led by the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group have failed to
produce a permanent solution to the conflict and without successful
mediation efforts, ceasefire violations and escalating tensions
threaten to renew a military conflict between the countries and
destabilize the South Caucasus region.
`Increased tensions could also disrupt oil and gas exports from the
region, since Azerbaijan is a significant oil and gas exporter to
Europe and Central Asia, producing 850,000 barrels of oil per day
while harming U.S. economic interests and creating a spike in the
global oil market,' stressed the report.
North Korea ranked high on the report because of the nuclear test it
conducted in February 2013, as well as US estimates that it has enough
plutonium to produce five nuclear weapons.
Another priority issue for US mentioned in the report is Iran. It
notes that while prospects for a breakthrough in the nuclear standoff
with Iran have recently improved with the November interim agreement
between Iran and Western powers aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear
ambitions in exchange for easing sanctions on Iran, but a lasting
settlement of the dispute is still uncertain.
`There are still obstacles in the way of a long-term agreement that
both satisfies Iran's desire to develop nuclear energy and reassures
its international counterparts, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, of
its peaceful intent. The threat of renewed tensions stemming from a
breakdown of the interim agreement and even the possibility of
military strikes cannot be discounted,' said the report.
Regarding Iraq, the report said the dividing lines between religious
groups have widened. Shi'a groups, which constitute more than 60
percent of the population, have been able to influence the country's
political atmosphere. `If sectarian violence continues to take hold of
the country, Iraq may plunge into a deeper state of chaos and
potentially into a state of civil war,' said the report.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-336027-syria-threatens-stability-in-turkey-us-think-tank-report-warns.html