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IHS Global Insight
January 10, 2014
Despite annual rise in exports Armenia's trade deficit widens in
January-November 2013
Lilit Gevorgyan
Armenia's total trade volumes, in US dollar terms and current prices,
increased 5.2% year on year (y/y) during January-November 2013, as
suggested in detailed data released by the National Statistical
Service. Exports increased 8.4%, totalling USD1.348 billion in the
same period. Meanwhile, imports grew at slower pace, rising by 4.2% to
USD3.993 billion.
Hence the trade deficit stood at USD2.645 billion, widening from
USD2.313 billion reported in January-October 2013. It also widened in
y/y comparison, against the USD2.588-billion deficit in
January-November 2012. According to the same data release, exports in
November 2013 increased 5.9% y/y, against 5% y/y decline in October.
Imports increased 13.1% y/y, accelerating from October's y/y gain of
7.5%. The breakdown of the November data suggests that metal and
finished food products, as well as precious and semi-precious stones,
topped the list of Armenian exports. Meanwhile chemicals and related
products as well as finished food, and mineral products topped the
import list in January-November. Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) countries remained Armenia's key trading partners, with
respective trade volumes comprising 32% of the total trade turnover,
followed by EU at 22%.
Significance:Armenia's export performance has been improving
throughout 2013, although the trade gap has been narrowing, largely
due to a fall in imports. Under the new 2014 budget, the Armenian
government expects the current-account gap to stand at 8.6%. In a
continued effort to boost exports, the government is reportedly
planning to invest USD1.4 billion in a strategy for Export-Oriented
Industrial Policy. Due to above-target inflation and declining
consumer confidence among Armenian households, we expect imports to
trend down. Meanwhile, progressing economic integration with the
Russian-led Customs Union, due to be finalised by May 2014, is likely
to increase Armenian exports to the members of the union. This could
further help Armenia's exports profile. Still, the country's trade gap
remains relatively large and in the long term the government needs to
diversify its exports, to make them more resilient to external
challenges and to narrow the trade deficit.
January 10, 2014
Despite annual rise in exports Armenia's trade deficit widens in
January-November 2013
Lilit Gevorgyan
Armenia's total trade volumes, in US dollar terms and current prices,
increased 5.2% year on year (y/y) during January-November 2013, as
suggested in detailed data released by the National Statistical
Service. Exports increased 8.4%, totalling USD1.348 billion in the
same period. Meanwhile, imports grew at slower pace, rising by 4.2% to
USD3.993 billion.
Hence the trade deficit stood at USD2.645 billion, widening from
USD2.313 billion reported in January-October 2013. It also widened in
y/y comparison, against the USD2.588-billion deficit in
January-November 2012. According to the same data release, exports in
November 2013 increased 5.9% y/y, against 5% y/y decline in October.
Imports increased 13.1% y/y, accelerating from October's y/y gain of
7.5%. The breakdown of the November data suggests that metal and
finished food products, as well as precious and semi-precious stones,
topped the list of Armenian exports. Meanwhile chemicals and related
products as well as finished food, and mineral products topped the
import list in January-November. Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) countries remained Armenia's key trading partners, with
respective trade volumes comprising 32% of the total trade turnover,
followed by EU at 22%.
Significance:Armenia's export performance has been improving
throughout 2013, although the trade gap has been narrowing, largely
due to a fall in imports. Under the new 2014 budget, the Armenian
government expects the current-account gap to stand at 8.6%. In a
continued effort to boost exports, the government is reportedly
planning to invest USD1.4 billion in a strategy for Export-Oriented
Industrial Policy. Due to above-target inflation and declining
consumer confidence among Armenian households, we expect imports to
trend down. Meanwhile, progressing economic integration with the
Russian-led Customs Union, due to be finalised by May 2014, is likely
to increase Armenian exports to the members of the union. This could
further help Armenia's exports profile. Still, the country's trade gap
remains relatively large and in the long term the government needs to
diversify its exports, to make them more resilient to external
challenges and to narrow the trade deficit.