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TATUL MANASERYAN ABOUT THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK STUDIES. "I TREAT THESE NUMBERS WITH RESERVATION AND DOUBTS."
January 28 2014
"Even the most prestigious institutions can not afford to predict
their economic development with this kind of jewelry accuracy based
on one factor, - so replied Tatul Manaseryan, economist, director of
"Alternative" Research Center, to the question of Aravot.am whether it
is not exaggerated that the EDB Integration Research Center predicts
that if Armenia joins the Customs Union, Armenia's GDP will growth by
an additional 4 percent per year. He noted that joining the Customs
Union "no matter how important it is for the economic development of
Armenia cannot be the most decisive factor" and continued, "We can
treat the prediction of such clear numbers, let me say, with a little
bit reservation. To the best, Armenia's accession to the Customs Union
may be the only factorial analysis as to which sectors of the economy
of Armenia it may affect, what and how, what trends can be recorded.
Moreover, the decision has not yet been accepted, and the negotiations
regarding the terms are not completed, too." Mr. Manaseryan noted
that researches are conducted by the Center, and in contrast to the
foreign companies, their cognitive level about the economic situation
in Armenia is higher, because they are dealing with the reality of
economy of Armenia on daily basis. Mr. Manaseryan said that given the
situation, they have developed scenarios as to under which situation
the economy can develop. In the conversation with Mr. Manaseryan,
we quoted the section of the Eurasian Development Bank studies, where
a comparison is made with the situation, which could be recorded if
Armenia had signed the EU Association Agreement. To this respect,
the economist said the following, "I have a great desire to meet with
the authors of the analysis, and these people should convince me and
you as the RA citizens that they have sufficient grounds to make
such predictions. We can say different numbers that are anonymous
and with assumptions taken from here and there. Hence, I treat these
figures with reservation and great suspicion. Moreover, as an Armenian
economist, who has not made the last contribution to this country in
terms of economic analysis, can not reserve the right to make such
clear and definitive predictions." Mr. Manaseryan stressed that it is
more difficult to make predictions for 2014, and said, "Even Solomon
the Wise cannot make predictions for this year." Mr. Manaseryan said
that he can distinctly say that despite Armenia does not use the
potential properly, however, Armenia is still maintaining the ability
of registering a double-digit economic growth in annual terms. If we
have the opportunity to lead and manage the economy, then we assure
you that we can have a surplus of jobs." In summary, the economist
said, "Research performer should first reckon with reality, to see
what is going on in Armenia, starting from a competitive field,
economic governance. Otherwise, anyone can make predictions even
while playing backgammon, the only difference is that the name of
one is the European Union and the name of the other - Karapet".
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2014/01/28/163544/
From: A. Papazian
January 28 2014
"Even the most prestigious institutions can not afford to predict
their economic development with this kind of jewelry accuracy based
on one factor, - so replied Tatul Manaseryan, economist, director of
"Alternative" Research Center, to the question of Aravot.am whether it
is not exaggerated that the EDB Integration Research Center predicts
that if Armenia joins the Customs Union, Armenia's GDP will growth by
an additional 4 percent per year. He noted that joining the Customs
Union "no matter how important it is for the economic development of
Armenia cannot be the most decisive factor" and continued, "We can
treat the prediction of such clear numbers, let me say, with a little
bit reservation. To the best, Armenia's accession to the Customs Union
may be the only factorial analysis as to which sectors of the economy
of Armenia it may affect, what and how, what trends can be recorded.
Moreover, the decision has not yet been accepted, and the negotiations
regarding the terms are not completed, too." Mr. Manaseryan noted
that researches are conducted by the Center, and in contrast to the
foreign companies, their cognitive level about the economic situation
in Armenia is higher, because they are dealing with the reality of
economy of Armenia on daily basis. Mr. Manaseryan said that given the
situation, they have developed scenarios as to under which situation
the economy can develop. In the conversation with Mr. Manaseryan,
we quoted the section of the Eurasian Development Bank studies, where
a comparison is made with the situation, which could be recorded if
Armenia had signed the EU Association Agreement. To this respect,
the economist said the following, "I have a great desire to meet with
the authors of the analysis, and these people should convince me and
you as the RA citizens that they have sufficient grounds to make
such predictions. We can say different numbers that are anonymous
and with assumptions taken from here and there. Hence, I treat these
figures with reservation and great suspicion. Moreover, as an Armenian
economist, who has not made the last contribution to this country in
terms of economic analysis, can not reserve the right to make such
clear and definitive predictions." Mr. Manaseryan stressed that it is
more difficult to make predictions for 2014, and said, "Even Solomon
the Wise cannot make predictions for this year." Mr. Manaseryan said
that he can distinctly say that despite Armenia does not use the
potential properly, however, Armenia is still maintaining the ability
of registering a double-digit economic growth in annual terms. If we
have the opportunity to lead and manage the economy, then we assure
you that we can have a surplus of jobs." In summary, the economist
said, "Research performer should first reckon with reality, to see
what is going on in Armenia, starting from a competitive field,
economic governance. Otherwise, anyone can make predictions even
while playing backgammon, the only difference is that the name of
one is the European Union and the name of the other - Karapet".
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2014/01/28/163544/
From: A. Papazian