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THE GIST OF RECENT SKIRMISHES IN KARABAKH
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Jan 28 2014
Efgan Niftiyev
On a day when Azerbaijan was commemorating the 24th anniversary of
Black January, Armenian news outlets were flooded with an alleged
Azerbaijani military provocation and attack at the frontline that
left one Armenian soldier killed. The next day, Azerbaijan Ministry
of Defense denied the allegations and reported that it was actually
Armenian units that tried to break into Azerbaijani defense lines
and were repelled by the Azerbaijani army. The Azerbaijani side also
reported over 150 ceasefire violations by Armenian troops stationed in
Karabakh. These reciprocal statements may sound like mere propaganda,
but on the eve of the meeting of Azerbaijan and Armenian foreign
ministers, these deserve a careful reading.
At first, it seemed each party established its own narrative of events
around the Karabakh conflict, but Armenia used the alleged incident
as pretext to accuse the Azerbaijani side of damaging the process of
peace talks, thus trying to put Azerbaijan at a low ebb prior to the
Paris meeting of the foreign ministers. Reacting to the skirmishes
in the frontline, American co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James
Warlick said the violence and tension along the line of contact would
undermine efforts to bring about a negotiated settlement.
However, it should be noted that the possibility of frequent violations
at the Azerbaijan - Armenia front line is no surprise. The fact that
over 3000 Azerbaijani and somewhat proportionate Armenian soldiers
have died, despite the ceasefire, over the last 20 years, shows the
extent of the ceasefire's fragility.
Unless the very reason of the conflict - the occupation of Azerbaijani
territories - addressed, the loss of lives would persist.
It should be noted that the chronologic pattern of the serious
ceasefire violations are coincided with domestic economic and political
upheavals in Armenia. Military-Political leadership of Armenia utilized
these incidents at the frontline in order to divert public attention
from domestic problems. The occupation of Azerbaijan's Karabakh region
cost Armenia, with the exclusion from regional economic projects,
and hurt its economy severely. Although the Armenian leadership
continues its rule with the strong backing of military establishments,
the current popular distaste and unrest is widespread. The exodus of
the Armenians in the pursuit of a better life is serious indication
of economic failure of the political administration.
In fact, protracted conflict has high costs not just for Armenia,
but both countries, including hundreds of thousands of displaced
persons, lost relatives and closed borders. However, the way towards
conciliation does not go through being intransigent and using
inevitable skirmishes as a cloak to run away from resolving the very
reason of the trouble - the occupation of the territories of the
neighboring country. The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia
will meet on Friday in Paris. I hope it will add meaningful progress
to the peace talks that will lead to the meeting of the presidents
of Azerbaijan and Armenia in February.
Efgan Niftiyev, is the coordinator of strategy and policy in the
Caspian Strategy Institute.
January/28/2014
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-gist-of-recent-skirmishes-in-karabakh.aspx?pageID=238&nID=61637&NewsCatID=396
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Jan 28 2014
Efgan Niftiyev
On a day when Azerbaijan was commemorating the 24th anniversary of
Black January, Armenian news outlets were flooded with an alleged
Azerbaijani military provocation and attack at the frontline that
left one Armenian soldier killed. The next day, Azerbaijan Ministry
of Defense denied the allegations and reported that it was actually
Armenian units that tried to break into Azerbaijani defense lines
and were repelled by the Azerbaijani army. The Azerbaijani side also
reported over 150 ceasefire violations by Armenian troops stationed in
Karabakh. These reciprocal statements may sound like mere propaganda,
but on the eve of the meeting of Azerbaijan and Armenian foreign
ministers, these deserve a careful reading.
At first, it seemed each party established its own narrative of events
around the Karabakh conflict, but Armenia used the alleged incident
as pretext to accuse the Azerbaijani side of damaging the process of
peace talks, thus trying to put Azerbaijan at a low ebb prior to the
Paris meeting of the foreign ministers. Reacting to the skirmishes
in the frontline, American co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James
Warlick said the violence and tension along the line of contact would
undermine efforts to bring about a negotiated settlement.
However, it should be noted that the possibility of frequent violations
at the Azerbaijan - Armenia front line is no surprise. The fact that
over 3000 Azerbaijani and somewhat proportionate Armenian soldiers
have died, despite the ceasefire, over the last 20 years, shows the
extent of the ceasefire's fragility.
Unless the very reason of the conflict - the occupation of Azerbaijani
territories - addressed, the loss of lives would persist.
It should be noted that the chronologic pattern of the serious
ceasefire violations are coincided with domestic economic and political
upheavals in Armenia. Military-Political leadership of Armenia utilized
these incidents at the frontline in order to divert public attention
from domestic problems. The occupation of Azerbaijan's Karabakh region
cost Armenia, with the exclusion from regional economic projects,
and hurt its economy severely. Although the Armenian leadership
continues its rule with the strong backing of military establishments,
the current popular distaste and unrest is widespread. The exodus of
the Armenians in the pursuit of a better life is serious indication
of economic failure of the political administration.
In fact, protracted conflict has high costs not just for Armenia,
but both countries, including hundreds of thousands of displaced
persons, lost relatives and closed borders. However, the way towards
conciliation does not go through being intransigent and using
inevitable skirmishes as a cloak to run away from resolving the very
reason of the trouble - the occupation of the territories of the
neighboring country. The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia
will meet on Friday in Paris. I hope it will add meaningful progress
to the peace talks that will lead to the meeting of the presidents
of Azerbaijan and Armenia in February.
Efgan Niftiyev, is the coordinator of strategy and policy in the
Caspian Strategy Institute.
January/28/2014
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-gist-of-recent-skirmishes-in-karabakh.aspx?pageID=238&nID=61637&NewsCatID=396