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PUTIN'S DEEP PERSONAL DEFEAT
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Friday, 04 July 2014, 11:54
The Armenian officials did not comment on Kazakhstani foreign
minister's tweet who mentioned October as the possible time for
accession of Armenia to the Eurasian Union. The Russian foreign
ministry did not comment either.
Apparently, Russia has silently passed Armenia under the "mandate"
of Kazakhstan. Astana has changed the course of Armenian policy at
least three times. In the beginning Nazarbayev announced that Armenia's
membership to the Eurasian Union is impossible without a settlement of
the Karabakh conflict that will be in favor of Azerbaijan. Later on,
though Serzh Sargsyan asked for time till June 15, Nazarbayev set the
deadline on July 1. Now his foreign minister announces a new deadline.
Putin is not hiding that the issues of Armenia have been delegated to
Kazakhstan. Putin did not utter a word about Aliyev's letter during
and after the summit in Astana. He did not say anything in Minsk where
he had gone to attend an event dedicated to the 70th anniversary of
liberation of Belarus from fascists. In general, Putin rarely talks
about the Eurasian Union. Either he has lost interest due to the loss
of "Ukraine" or choked Armenia.
Since September 3 Armenia has been waiting to join the Eurasian Union.
The government agencies have been diligently preparing documents for
the Customs Union, Gagik Tsarukyan enlarged his business in Belarus,
the criminals are again shooting freely in the streets of Yerevan,
and people are waiting for simplification of residence rules in Russia.
The past year was not just a lost year, it was a long year of regress
that will last at least till October.
Putin does not need Armenia to join the Eurasian Union. It was clear
from the very beginning. Putin needed to thwart Eastern Partnership.
First he easily detached Azerbaijan from the project, starting trade
on Karabakh and weapons. Next he detached Armenia through threatening
by Azerbaijan. He almost won a victory but was unable to stop the
Eastern Partnership. Three countries eventually separated from the
post-Soviet space. Putin accepted it as his personal defeat.
Now one can find articles in the Russian press which write about
Putin's gloomy moods and even some fear. There are rumors about
controversies inside the Kremlin team which may escalate into a coup,
and the higher Putin's rating is, the more probable the coup is.
Putin's psychology has become a political category. For example,
Zbignew Brzezinski insists that Putin was most offended from Obama when
the latter called Russia a regional power. According to Brzezinski's
psychoanalysis, the Russian president is depressed and humiliated
because his imperial ambitions crushed after Ukraine.
Yerevan is apparently waiting for certain developments in Moscow,
even the opposition is waiting which decided to postpone its rallies
till fall despite the social combustibility. Important developments
may take place till autumn which will be related to not only Putin's
psychological situation but also the Turkish presidential elections,
division of Iran and a deal between Iran and the West.
In this respect, the Eurasian time-out is favorable but when the time
out becomes a main policy, the country sinks deeper in the social,
economic and geopolitical pit.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32686#sthash.eTR54whZ.dpuf
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Friday, 04 July 2014, 11:54
The Armenian officials did not comment on Kazakhstani foreign
minister's tweet who mentioned October as the possible time for
accession of Armenia to the Eurasian Union. The Russian foreign
ministry did not comment either.
Apparently, Russia has silently passed Armenia under the "mandate"
of Kazakhstan. Astana has changed the course of Armenian policy at
least three times. In the beginning Nazarbayev announced that Armenia's
membership to the Eurasian Union is impossible without a settlement of
the Karabakh conflict that will be in favor of Azerbaijan. Later on,
though Serzh Sargsyan asked for time till June 15, Nazarbayev set the
deadline on July 1. Now his foreign minister announces a new deadline.
Putin is not hiding that the issues of Armenia have been delegated to
Kazakhstan. Putin did not utter a word about Aliyev's letter during
and after the summit in Astana. He did not say anything in Minsk where
he had gone to attend an event dedicated to the 70th anniversary of
liberation of Belarus from fascists. In general, Putin rarely talks
about the Eurasian Union. Either he has lost interest due to the loss
of "Ukraine" or choked Armenia.
Since September 3 Armenia has been waiting to join the Eurasian Union.
The government agencies have been diligently preparing documents for
the Customs Union, Gagik Tsarukyan enlarged his business in Belarus,
the criminals are again shooting freely in the streets of Yerevan,
and people are waiting for simplification of residence rules in Russia.
The past year was not just a lost year, it was a long year of regress
that will last at least till October.
Putin does not need Armenia to join the Eurasian Union. It was clear
from the very beginning. Putin needed to thwart Eastern Partnership.
First he easily detached Azerbaijan from the project, starting trade
on Karabakh and weapons. Next he detached Armenia through threatening
by Azerbaijan. He almost won a victory but was unable to stop the
Eastern Partnership. Three countries eventually separated from the
post-Soviet space. Putin accepted it as his personal defeat.
Now one can find articles in the Russian press which write about
Putin's gloomy moods and even some fear. There are rumors about
controversies inside the Kremlin team which may escalate into a coup,
and the higher Putin's rating is, the more probable the coup is.
Putin's psychology has become a political category. For example,
Zbignew Brzezinski insists that Putin was most offended from Obama when
the latter called Russia a regional power. According to Brzezinski's
psychoanalysis, the Russian president is depressed and humiliated
because his imperial ambitions crushed after Ukraine.
Yerevan is apparently waiting for certain developments in Moscow,
even the opposition is waiting which decided to postpone its rallies
till fall despite the social combustibility. Important developments
may take place till autumn which will be related to not only Putin's
psychological situation but also the Turkish presidential elections,
division of Iran and a deal between Iran and the West.
In this respect, the Eurasian time-out is favorable but when the time
out becomes a main policy, the country sinks deeper in the social,
economic and geopolitical pit.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32686#sthash.eTR54whZ.dpuf