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The Ice Broke: The Chance Should Not Be Missed

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  • The Ice Broke: The Chance Should Not Be Missed

    THE ICE BROKE: THE CHANCE SHOULD NOT BE MISSED

    Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
    Comments - Wednesday, 09 July 2014, 21:25

    Ukrainian politicians are dwelling on the behavior of the
    representatives of political parties who visit Kiev to exchange
    opinions and collect impressions. Germany is trying to offer its
    policy of compromise on Russia which it bid on for its policy aimed
    at gaining new positions in Eastern Europe and Europe in general.

    The German project for Russia looks consistent but at the same time
    Russia cannot use the advantages of cooperation with the first economic
    power of Europe. In the meantime, Germany has started fearing such
    an open challenge to the United States and Great Britain and several
    interested states of the Baltic-Black Sea region and is trying to
    replace persistence in the discussion of the actual situation on the
    arena of the Western community with increased pressure on Ukraine
    for reconciliation with Russia.

    The German project on Ukraine has failed, and the Ukrainian politicians
    with a pro-German bias are marginalized and failed to use the share
    of popularity and image which they had in the result of Maidan. One
    way or another, Germany's Eastern policy is moving towards a dead
    end because it has not found any partner aside from Russia which is
    going deep into international isolation.

    However, it would be a mistake to consider the German policy on Ukraine
    as one relating to goals relating to Russia. In the long run, this
    is not true. One can understand Germany because its Eastern policy in
    the 20th century has twice run into the active intervention of Great
    Britain which considered isolation and weakening of Germany as its
    achievement over a lasting period following the Franco-Prussian war,
    as well as prevention of deep relations between France and Germany
    and Russia and Germany. In any case, political and historical classics
    says so.

    Germany felt the signs of the same British policy in the periods
    of previous Maidans called color revolutions. Then the goal was to
    build a barrier between Germany and Russia, and Ukraine was the main
    building material.

    We dwelled on Germany's Eastern policy to highlight Germany's
    comprehensible policy on NATO's expansion in Eastern Europe, and on
    the eve of the NATO summit in Cardiff Berlin intends to insist on its
    traditional policy in respect to the Euro-Atlantic community. And
    though Germany's position may be criticized heavily by the United
    States and Great Britain, as well as the Eastern European partners,
    NATO summit will be more significant to the countries of Eastern
    Europe than the summit of Chicago but Germany and France which
    is humbly following it will insist on a conservative position on
    expanding NATO members and mission.

    The seminar of the Atlantic Council in Washington devoted to the topic
    "NATO-Armenia" held jointly with Policy Forum Armenia highlighted
    that the United States is going to the NATO summit in Cardiff with
    such a reliable background as full solidarity of countries of Eastern
    Europe and the conservative position of Germany and France.

    At the same time, the concept of NATO development reflects the
    interests and intentions of the alliance which is interested in
    expanding cooperation with new partners. Without the participation
    of new partners the development of the alliance, implementation of
    peacekeeping, as well as logistical actions and tasks is impossible

    In this situation and with such expectations the United States has
    made an important strategic decision on supply of arms and assistance
    to the countries of Eastern Europe, first of all Ukraine, Moldova and
    Georgia for which purpose 1 billion dollars is allocated, which is,
    apparently, the beginning of the American policy in the region.

    Aside from this, Poland and Germany are acquiring an important role
    of key providers of the U.S. policy in Eastern Europe. The ice broke,
    and it is important not to have Armenia left out of these processes,
    and prospects have opened up for NATO members to receive weapons from
    the United States. Missing such a chance would be a crime, as well
    as an object for accusations against those who conduct a policy of
    thwarting the Armenian policy on NATO.

    The Armenian military circles are ready and full of understanding
    and responsibility to implement their tasks of rapprochement and
    cooperation with NATO, and the political government of the country does
    not deny these tasks but, one way or another, it is clear that Russia
    has successfully created a reliable network of agents in Armenia,
    including in the government. This should be understood for correct
    assessment of quite strange ongoing developments.

    The United States and NATO are discussing two options of resistance and
    containment of Russian expansion. The first is isolation and blockade
    of Russia, the second involves strengthening the military-political
    capacity of Eastern Europe. The Black Sea-Caucasian region is becoming
    an arena of high geopolitical dynamics, and though several American
    experts claim that the United States will mostly focus on Ukraine,
    and even Georgia will not get much attention, in reality these
    assessments contradict the analytical calculations of the same experts.

    The Black Sea-Caucasian region is not just part of Eastern Europe
    but also an important polygon for containment of Russian expansion,
    and in this region Russia ran into a dead end for the first time. This
    region is not only an arena for operational processes in respect to
    Russia but also other states, first of all Turkey and Iran.

    Under these conditions and taking into account this prospect, Armenia
    will either become a partner of the United States and NATO or will
    appear in a miserable and marginal situation, and the destiny of an
    object of trade between Turkey and Russia.

    - See more at:
    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32705#sthash.fZ4v9zId.dpuf

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